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Old 05-23-2020, 12:21 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
Well - it is definitely higher than what is reported - as unemployment rates reflect those actively looking for a job. CARES act is often paying more than what they making before.

By island - Maui at 36.1%, followed by Kauai at 34.4% and then Hawaii island at 24.0%. Honolulu’s rate was 20.0%.
I think that's normally how it goes. Same thing with previous recession, the outer islands was way worse. Interesting that the big island held up well, relatively speaking. I'm wondering if this indicates their economy is somewhat more diversified (like oahu's) than kauai and maui. Perhaps due to more agriculture, ranching, and military presence?
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Old 05-23-2020, 12:25 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotzcatz View Post
Some of the folks on unemployment along with the extra money from the Feds are making more than when they were working. So many of the workers are fine, actually better than fine and not overly anxious to go back to work, as long as they still have a job and can still get the benefits and unemployment.


The business owners are in worlds of hurt and small businesses are vanishing left and right in our little town. Which then means the landlords are going to be not making mortgage payments. These are more along the line of 'micro-businesses' since they're generally the owners, a few family members and maybe one or three hired employees. But they give stability and character to the town. Hopefully they will come back when things open up, or another little business will take their space.


I'm part of a little co-op shop in town and we re-opened last Tuesday. Folks are really happy to have things open up again, I think they've been pretty bored staying at home all the time. Revenues are down by about 30%-40%, but we can survive with that. That's only for since last Tuesday, though, so I don't know if this is delayed sales from the past few months when folks couldn't get out and about or not. At the moment, we're just trying to make rent and survive since the business hasn't gotten any of the stimulus money at all. The owner did manage (after two days of trying and hours on the phone) to get in a claim, but nothing has come from it.
That's pretty good if you can be down that much in sales and still doing ok. Many businesses operate with profits in the single digits. Loss of sales in the 30%-40% range puts it at solid losses.
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Old 05-23-2020, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Moku Nui, Hawaii
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rya96797 View Post
That's pretty good if you can be down that much in sales and still doing ok. Many businesses operate with profits in the single digits. Loss of sales in the 30%-40% range puts it at solid losses.

It's structured as a co-op so everyone is part owner and not an employee. No employees means no employee costs and we will basically be working for free until things turn around. The landlord is also giving us a break on the rent at the moment, so that helps a lot, too. And, none of us depend on the shop to pay our bills, so that's really helpful as well.

Had it been structured as a traditional business we'd be gone since one owner couldn't sustain the hit.
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Old 05-23-2020, 02:17 PM
 
Location: Moku Nui, Hawaii
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rya96797 View Post
I think that's normally how it goes. Same thing with previous recession, the outer islands was way worse. Interesting that the big island held up well, relatively speaking. I'm wondering if this indicates their economy is somewhat more diversified (like oahu's) than kauai and maui. Perhaps due to more agriculture, ranching, and military presence?
Not a lot of military presence, but we do have much more agriculture and ranching here than some of the other islands. Tourism is part of our economy, but not as large of a part as for others.

We already did the big recession/depression not too long ago. After sugar went down in the mid-90's (about 30% - 40% of the local economy? Maybe more?) we diversified into a lot of little agriculture businesses such as tea, vanilla, honey, chocolate, etc. Not all the sugar lands went into diversified ag, though, a lot of it is still planted in those stupid eucalyptus trees which aren't being made into paper and keep the land from being used for viable crops. Had they planted tropical hardwoods, we would have been able to supply a lot of woodworkers and craftsfolks with some superior lumber for high end products by now.

As islands, we don't have the 'economy of scale' for big agribusiness, but the small high end crops - especially those sold by the producer directly to the end consumer - do really well.

Hawaii Island also has a lower cost of living, so little start up businesses have a chance of surviving.
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Old 05-23-2020, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Puna, Hawaii
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I don't think the BI is going to fall as far as some of the others. Not because the economy here is great, but because it was already low to begin with.
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Old 05-23-2020, 03:21 PM
 
4,336 posts, read 1,530,672 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotzcatz View Post
Some of the folks on unemployment along with the extra money from the Feds are making more than when they were working. So many of the workers are fine, actually better than fine and not overly anxious to go back to work, as long as they still have a job and can still get the benefits and unemployment.


The business owners are in worlds of hurt and small businesses are vanishing left and right in our little town. Which then means the landlords are going to be not making mortgage payments. These are more along the line of 'micro-businesses' since they're generally the owners, a few family members and maybe one or three hired employees. But they give stability and character to the town. Hopefully they will come back when things open up, or another little business will take their space.


I'm part of a little co-op shop in town and we re-opened last Tuesday. Folks are really happy to have things open up again, I think they've been pretty bored staying at home all the time. Revenues are down by about 30%-40%, but we can survive with that. That's only for since last Tuesday, though, so I don't know if this is delayed sales from the past few months when folks couldn't get out and about or not. At the moment, we're just trying to make rent and survive since the business hasn't gotten any of the stimulus money at all. The owner did manage (after two days of trying and hours on the phone) to get in a claim, but nothing has come from it.
I wish you all the best in this.
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Old 05-28-2020, 11:17 AM
 
2,095 posts, read 1,538,991 times
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Looks like we dropped out of the top 3, edged out by florida


1. Washington: 31%
2. Nevada 27%
3. Florida 25%
4. Hawaii 23%
5. Michigan 23%
6. California 20%
7. New York 20%
8. Rhode Island 19%
9. Vermont 18%
10. Connecticut and Georgia: 18%

(*insured unemployment rates week ended May 9)
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Old 05-28-2020, 11:19 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotzcatz View Post

Hawaii Island also has a lower cost of living, so little start up businesses have a chance of surviving.
That's true. Rents and property values is (relatively) low, especially undeveloped land. Unlike the insane commercial and residential property rents on oahu. When I see all the long term vacant commercial and retail spaces on oahu, I kinda wonder why the owners don't drop the rents to something more sustainable to get a longer term tenant in instead versus having nobody in that space.
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Old 05-28-2020, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Kahala
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rya96797 View Post
That's true. Rents and property values is (relatively) low, especially undeveloped land. Unlike the insane commercial and residential property rents on oahu. When I see all the long term vacant commercial and retail spaces on oahu, I kinda wonder why the owners don't drop the rents to something more sustainable to get a longer term tenant in instead versus having nobody in that space.
Oahu will end up far better than any of the outer islands - which is reflected in the latest unemployment numbers. One only needs to look at the Great Recession and 9/11 to see how poorly the Big Island performed compared to the other islands - especially in terms of defaults on mortgages and bankruptcies. It doesn't matter if your rent is low if people have no money to spend.

Regarding Oahu commercial rent - Far better to take tax write-offs than be tied to a long term tenant at a low rent. While I expect commercial rents to get more competitive - I don't expect bargains. You'll simply see storefronts boarded up for a few years - again, one only needs to look at the Great Recession and 9/11. People didn't move into the vacant storefronts at bargain rents - they stayed boarded up until someone decided to take that space.

While a place like Ala Moana may introduce some short term incentives - I'd expect to see empty stores for quite awhile. Will be interesting to see if Macy's/Nieman Marcus/Nordstrom can survive this and what would happen with all that space.
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Old 06-01-2020, 09:55 PM
 
Location: Puna, Hawaii
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I don't know if the BI is going to be hit as hard from this event as previous recessions. The BI was still meandering through localized recession caused by the closure of all the sugar mills during the last 2 recessions. It still hasn't "recovered" but as mentioned previously means it doesn't have as far to fall. Here in LZ 3 the growing economy in the last 3 years has mostly been from imported retirees and their pensions. The crap economy that has put downward pressure on real estate prices has attracted retirees with disposable income, which in turn has strengthened the local economy. We have even witnessed some gentrification even in Puna.
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