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If you thought my predictions were gloomy - here are some by professionals.....
And no way that unemployment number will end up at 8.6% if not open until September - it was depressing to walk around Waikiki yesterday, many businesses will never come back and it is only end of May
Assuming the visitor industry starts opening in September, economists predict it will still take six years for visitor arrivals to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.
The forecast also assumes no cruise visitors will arrive in the islands until the second half of next year.
DBEDT predicts that this year’s annual unemployment rate will be at 8.6 percent, and go down to 6.2 percent in 2023. That’s still more than double the rate in 2017 and 2019.
Economists, however, are hopeful that Hawaii can bounce back, saying that the state is “well positioned to go beyond recovery and evolve into a more balanced and diversified economy
Diversified? What a joke. These people have no plans whatsoever and here they are assuming we'll magically become diversified.
Economists, however, are hopeful that Hawaii can bounce back, saying that the state is “well positioned to go beyond recovery and evolve into a more balanced and diversified economy
Diversified? What a joke. These people have no plans whatsoever and here they are assuming we'll magically become diversified.
I read the OP and almost posted exactly what you posted. Apathy stopped me. I'm getting lazy with nothing to do/nowhere to go.
We're screwed, plain and simple. Look how long it took hawaii to recover from the last recession. And that one is nothing compared to this one. I'd say their time table is about right.
Economists, however, are hopeful that Hawaii can bounce back, saying that the state is “well positioned to go beyond recovery and evolve into a more balanced and diversified economy
Diversified? What a joke. These people have no plans whatsoever and here they are assuming we'll magically become diversified.
All because of a complete overreaction to a virus that has a mortality rate between .1%-.3%. This will go down as one of the worst debacles in human history. Because of the decisions made in handling this virus, there will a devastating affect that will last many years. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I’m pretty confident that this was a desired result.
FWIW, Hawaii is pretty happy with it's 'over reaction', we're not sick, we're not dead. Hawaii is all about family and ohana so we take care of each other.
We're gonna see over 100,000 deaths in the continental United States from the first wave of this virus. Samoa? Zero cases, zero deaths. Hawaii? We didn't do as well. Alaska? They did better than us. I'd have to go see how Guam and Puerto Rico and the rest of the territories have done.
Tourism was becoming a bit much the past few years so less tourists on a day to day living here basis is a good thing. However, folks' incomes are down so that will be a hardship. IMHO, this is going to clear out a few malahini who don't have any resources. Hawaii families stick together and now there's gonna be even more of them sharing one house.
But hopefully this past few year's upward spiral of increasing rents and increasing costs is gonna flat line and fall to go along with the decreasing jobs. Our economy was too busy before, it's good to slow it down a little.
Hawaii needs to take care of it's own people before it focuses on tourists, IMHO. A lot of housing was bought by mainland companies and owners and made into vacation rentals. A lot of Hawaii jobs are low paying service jobs. Getting even a few more businesses other than tourism will help strengthen the economy.
Almost all the food and goods are imported. Getting it a little more in balance will be a good thing. Growing and providing our own food will create jobs outside of tourism and give us more resilience against things outside of our control such as dock strikes on the mainland.
One of the things of diversification most folks seem to miss is that it isn't just one answer. It's a whole bunch of little answers. The hotel worker who now starts a home cleaning business is part of the 'diversification'. The tour bus driver who now drives a delivery truck is part of the diversification. It's not just one big answer and it will be answered all across the state as there are less tourists.
FWIW, Hawaii is pretty happy with it's 'over reaction', we're not sick, we're not dead. Hawaii is all about family and ohana so we take care of each other.
We're gonna see over 100,000 deaths in the continental United States from the first wave of this virus. Samoa? Zero cases, zero deaths. Hawaii? We didn't do as well. Alaska? They did better than us. I'd have to go see how Guam and Puerto Rico and the rest of the territories have done.
Tourism was becoming a bit much the past few years so less tourists on a day to day living here basis is a good thing. However, folks' incomes are down so that will be a hardship. IMHO, this is going to clear out a few malahini who don't have any resources. Hawaii families stick together and now there's gonna be even more of them sharing one house.
But hopefully this past few year's upward spiral of increasing rents and increasing costs is gonna flat line and fall to go along with the decreasing jobs. Our economy was too busy before, it's good to slow it down a little.
Hawaii needs to take care of it's own people before it focuses on tourists, IMHO. A lot of housing was bought by mainland companies and owners and made into vacation rentals. A lot of Hawaii jobs are low paying service jobs. Getting even a few more businesses other than tourism will help strengthen the economy.
Almost all the food and goods are imported. Getting it a little more in balance will be a good thing. Growing and providing our own food will create jobs outside of tourism and give us more resilience against things outside of our control such as dock strikes on the mainland.
One of the things of diversification most folks seem to miss is that it isn't just one answer. It's a whole bunch of little answers. The hotel worker who now starts a home cleaning business is part of the 'diversification'. The tour bus driver who now drives a delivery truck is part of the diversification. It's not just one big answer and it will be answered all across the state as there are less tourists.
We will all get through this and hopefully some lessons could be learned where new doors are opened.
All because of a complete overreaction to a virus that has a mortality rate between .1%-.3%. This will go down as one of the worst debacles in human history. Because of the decisions made in handling this virus, there will a devastating affect that will last many years. I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I’m pretty confident that this was a desired result.
Oh just stop it, officer.
Just a month back you said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nyfinestbxtf
?.. It looks like the deaths in the US won’t break 60,000...
Not to ridicule ... just to point out that your history of assumptions and analysis is less than crystal ball-ish, ok friend?
We will all get through this and hopefully some lessons could be learned where new doors are opened.
Better. And roger that.
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