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Old 08-17-2022, 06:45 AM
 
Location: Kahala
12,120 posts, read 17,908,567 times
Reputation: 6176

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Quote:
Originally Posted by pj737 View Post
I looked up the Zillow data for the following cities which goes back exactly 10 years. They pretty much mirror the Honolulu Board of Realtors data for Hawaii so I assume they do the same in all the other cities they have data on.

Check out these mind-boggling price increases over the last decade. For those that are math challenged, 100% is doubling, 200% is tripling, etc.


Las Vegas NV - 244%
Atlanta GA - 176%
Phoenix AZ - 244%
Austin TX - 174%
Ogden UT - 261%
Boise ID - 225%
Fort Myers FL - 172%
Spokane WA - 176%
Salt Lake City UT - 176%
Nashville TN - 196%
Sacramento CA - 221%
Tampa FL - 230%
Colorado Springs CO - 142%
Charlotte NC - 166%
Detroit MI - 426%

Honolulu HI - 71%
National city average - 116%

Based on this arguably reliable data, Honolulu real estate has appreciated much less than the national average, underperforming by a significant 45% margin.

Homes in Phoenix and Las Vegas would have to correct by 50% just to match the 10 year price gains realized here in Honolulu. That's just nuts.

Clearly, the bubble action hasn't been very hot here in Honolulu. I can't speak for the outer islands and places like the North shore here on Oahu. But I'm guessing even the exceptionally well performing areas on Oahu still don't come close to those gains experienced in most of the nation.
Although Honolulu started at a much higher price point 10 years ago.

Even with 244% appreciation - Las Vegas SFH median is only $440,000 today. That’s still just chump change for someone moving from Honolulu or the Bay Area.
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Old 08-17-2022, 08:20 AM
 
Location: Honolulu/DMV Area/NYC
30,633 posts, read 18,214,590 times
Reputation: 34508
Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
Although Honolulu started at a much higher price point 10 years ago.

Even with 244% appreciation - Las Vegas SFH median is only $440,000 today. That’s still just chump change for someone moving from Honolulu or the Bay Area.
This point absolutely has to be taken into account for the conversation at hand. We simply aren't dealing with apples to apples comparisons when discussing price increases (as a percentage) in Hawaii/Honolulu vs other states/cities.
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Old 08-17-2022, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Portland OR / Honolulu HI
959 posts, read 1,215,636 times
Reputation: 1869
I think my Honolulu condo is worth barely more today than it was at the end of 2019. By contrast, appreciation on my mainland properties are up about 35% to 45% in the same period. I don’t think my condo is reflective of the Oahu market in whole, but this is my perspective. My condo value dropped in 2020 and only came back up in late 2021 & 2022.
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Old 08-17-2022, 08:52 AM
 
Location: Kahala
12,120 posts, read 17,908,567 times
Reputation: 6176
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaikikiBoy View Post
I think my Honolulu condo is worth barely more today than it was at the end of 2019. By contrast, appreciation on my mainland properties are up about 35% to 45% in the same period. I don’t think my condo is reflective of the Oahu market in whole, but this is my perspective. My condo value dropped in 2020 and only came back up in late 2021 & 2022.
Condos don’t appreciate at the same level as single family homes - especially in Hawaii.
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Old 08-17-2022, 10:21 PM
 
1,585 posts, read 2,109,017 times
Reputation: 1885
Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
Although Honolulu started at a much higher price point 10 years ago.
The argument that we started "high" so therefore we shouldn't go up like other parts of the mainland doesn't hold much water. San Francisco, for example, saw increases of 115% over the 10 year period. They started off at a higher price point (16% higher) than Honolulu 10 years ago. However, their median SFH price is currently 45% higher than ours.

Bottom line, Honolulu didn't see the same wild real estate price appreciation like the vast majority of the mainland did. Whether that's good or bad can be debated. But the fact we didn't appreciate nearly as much as the mainland did would, at the very least, reduce the likelihood we will see a significant correction here.

All theories of course. But that's my take.
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Old 08-18-2022, 12:44 AM
 
Location: Kahala
12,120 posts, read 17,908,567 times
Reputation: 6176
Quote:
Originally Posted by pj737 View Post
The argument that we started "high" so therefore we shouldn't go up like other parts of the mainland doesn't hold much water. San Francisco, for example, saw increases of 115% over the 10 year period. They started off at a higher price point (16% higher) than Honolulu 10 years ago. However, their median SFH price is currently 45% higher than ours.

Bottom line, Honolulu didn't see the same wild real estate price appreciation like the vast majority of the mainland did. Whether that's good or bad can be debated. But the fact we didn't appreciate nearly as much as the mainland did would, at the very least, reduce the likelihood we will see a significant correction here.

All theories of course. But that's my take.
Personal opinion - we aren’t a good comparison to SF - based on lack of stock options. No google no Facebook no Apple etc.
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Old 08-18-2022, 02:12 PM
 
1,585 posts, read 2,109,017 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
Condos don’t appreciate at the same level as single family homes - especially in Hawaii.
That's because you can't build any more SFHs in the desirable areas of Oahu. Tens of thousands of condos, however, will continue to be built over the coming years simply because you can only go up. You can't solar power a condo or charge an electric vehicle with solar. Or grow your own food. Or catch your own water (this could be a thing in the future). Condos are great lifestyle choices and wonderful to live in. But for long term wealth building you want as much dirt as you can afford.
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Old 08-18-2022, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Kahala
12,120 posts, read 17,908,567 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pj737 View Post
That's because you can't build any more SFHs in the desirable areas of Oahu.
Plenty of oceanfront land still sitting vacant in Kahala - of course you'd have to pony up $10 million plus for those lots....They generally aren't on the MLS, but they are available.

You'd also be surprised at how much land is vacant - and lots of teardown opportunities in Kailua and East Oahu (and people are tearing them down). The neglect of some of the homes built in the 50s and 60s at this point (or very small houses sitting on large lots) necessitates a teardown since so many are beyond the point of no return of a remodel. Same thing goes for Manoa and Nuuanu - some of those home are 100 years old and look it.

I just don't have the time - the patience - or the will to jump back in the real estate market.

Of course, one can still punish themselves and build a home on a lot on the West side - still plenty of land.
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Old 08-18-2022, 05:02 PM
 
1,585 posts, read 2,109,017 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whtviper1 View Post
Plenty of oceanfront land still sitting vacant in Kahala - of course you'd have to pony up $10 million plus for those lots....They generally aren't on the MLS, but they are available.

You'd also be surprised at how much land is vacant - and lots of teardown opportunities in Kailua and East Oahu (and people are tearing them down). The neglect of some of the homes built in the 50s and 60s at this point (or very small houses sitting on large lots) necessitates a teardown since so many are beyond the point of no return of a remodel. Same thing goes for Manoa and Nuuanu - some of those home are 100 years old and look it.

I just don't have the time - the patience - or the will to jump back in the real estate market.

Of course, one can still punish themselves and build a home on a lot on the West side - still plenty of land.
Those are land bank properties. Japanese or other outside investors often buy them up and sit on them for decades, sometimes generations with no intention to build on them. Not that I would agree with such an investment strategy (if I had that kind of money) but clearly it works out very well for some.

Sure there are a lot of dilapidated tear down SFHs out there. But there are also a ton of dilapidated condos that need a complete gutting. There really isn't that much vacant land in the core/east Honolulu (11 currently for sale) and desirable parts of the Windward side (Waimanalo to Kailua). Kaneohe has a few large parcels that can be developed but they are either in major flood plains or will need CUPs and neighborhood approvals. NIMBYism will kill most of those. Waimanalo is either ag (mostly state owned) which will never allow development especially now with skyrocketing food costs and a stronger focus as a state on self reliance on food. The larger privately owned 2+ acre parcels that allow legal homes out there are like gold now. There is literally nothing available anymore. If you want more than half an acre you need to go out West. The last tiny pieces in Waimanalo/Kailua were developed behind Norfolk recently.

West side and central Oahu has available land for development and sadly more homes will be built there to satisfy demand for SFHs despite much of that available land being prime agricultural plots. But I did mention "desirable areas". To me that's properties in the core or East Honolulu/Kailua and Waimanalo.

I actually love those 100 year old houses in Manoa. We've been looking to buy in that area but want a larger usable level lot than what's been available.
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Old 08-18-2022, 05:42 PM
 
Location: Kahala
12,120 posts, read 17,908,567 times
Reputation: 6176
Quote:
Originally Posted by pj737 View Post
Those are land bank properties. Japanese or other outside investors often buy them up and sit on them for decades, sometimes generations with no intention to build on them. Not that I would agree with such an investment strategy (if I had that kind of money) but clearly it works out very well for some.
The large number of oceanfront lots in Kahala are indeed for sale (and a number of lots across from the beach) -

Genshiro Kawamoto at one time owned 31 homes in Kahala - which sat neglected for years (at least 30) and became total eye sores. Some were rehabbed - many just torn down. Alexander and Baldwin bought all the properties for over $125 million and while they have now all been sold - quite a few lots from the teardowns are still available with prominent For Sale signs on the lots.

Take a drive down Kahala Ave - you'd be surprised how huge some of the empty lots are fronting the ocean.

It is a fascinating - and sad story

https://www.honolulumagazine.com/the...hiro-kawamoto/
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