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Old 04-19-2020, 07:11 PM
 
1,385 posts, read 741,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
See, I disagree that the stated COVID deaths are "way less than actual." It's not just me; many people believe they are "way more than actual" and have been inflated by including deaths "with" COVID along with deaths "from" COVID.
Well, okay, so I think one thing about possibilities and you think another.

But the only thing we actually can see is what we've been given. I'm reminded of schrodinger's cat.

It doesn't matter what we believe. All we can look at is the box: the current numbers we're given. We can each believe what we want of what's hidden. But we can both agree that it is, indeed, hidden.

We've only got what we've got. For now: the numbers. Of which, the Flu numbers also DO NOT include other associated illnesses/causes.


Please dear god let's not get into conspiracy theories (again).
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Old 04-19-2020, 07:15 PM
 
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And keeping in mind.....


1. Covid numbers are WITH social distancing


2. Flu number are WITHOUT social distancing.


3. The flu has comorbidity too...which I haven't seen mentioned in all these arguments about "other illnesses/being old"/etc.


(As an aside, a broadway actor just lost his leg due to "complications" from covid....has to do with blood clotting and the meds for the clotting were causing problems so they had to amputate. It's possible that happened to someone with the flu too, but I dunno)

Last edited by crusinsusan; 04-19-2020 at 07:40 PM..
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Old 04-19-2020, 08:09 PM
 
Location: Central IL
16,912 posts, read 10,102,941 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike1003 View Post
Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death | Flourish

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/
Very cool - thanks!
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Old 04-19-2020, 08:14 PM
 
Location: Central IL
16,912 posts, read 10,102,941 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
See, I disagree that the stated COVID deaths are "way less than actual." It's not just me; many people believe they are "way more than actual" and have been inflated by including deaths "with" COVID along with deaths "from" COVID.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html


"Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died.

That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted.

These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both."
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Old 04-19-2020, 09:37 PM
 
1,385 posts, read 741,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike1003 View Post
Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death | Flourish

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

Okay Mike, reneeh's 2nd post made me click on it. It is cool In a sad way.

I used to click on links without information, but it was a sucker move...so I started googling them prior to clicking...then there's just too much crapola people are trying to pass off as "real" that I don't want to waste my time.

Thanks reneeh.


Edited to add: I never finished reading a news article this morning...and went back to it now...and saw that public flourish link was in the paragraph after the one I stopped at. (insert embarassed emoji here)

Last edited by crusinsusan; 04-19-2020 at 10:49 PM..
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Old 04-19-2020, 09:42 PM
 
Location: Southwestern, USA
18,557 posts, read 13,927,800 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
and have been inflated by including deaths "with" COVID along with deaths "from" COVID.
Yes, this is the new buzz.
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Old 04-19-2020, 09:47 PM
 
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What's the buzz about deaths "with" flu and deaths "from" flu?

Hasn't ever come up in years past. Just now...with covid.

And do give Mike's link a whirl.
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Old 04-20-2020, 12:44 AM
 
Location: DMV Area/NYC/Honolulu
17,863 posts, read 8,453,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saibot View Post
See, I disagree that the stated COVID deaths are "way less than actual." It's not just me; many people believe they are "way more than actual" and have been inflated by including deaths "with" COVID along with deaths "from" COVID.
Oh, its well known that "suspected" but not confirmed covid cases are being counted in the covid death count. And that the federal government is counting every death where someone had covid (regardless of any underlying issues and regardless of whether covid symptoms may have been mild) as a covid death. Note, not every country counts these deaths in such a way.

From. Dr. Birx's own mouth:

Quote:
“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem,” she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. “Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.

“The intent is … if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that,” she added.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-c...vid-19-deaths/

To be fair, I don't know how deaths from flu are counted in this country either. It could very well be the case where the death of anyone with the flu is counted as a flu death, even if the flu wasn't the official cause of death (I've seen nothing to support that, though).

So while I appreciate the comparisons to the flu seasons (they are helpful), I use the comparisons with this in mind.
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Old 04-20-2020, 12:58 AM
 
Location: DMV Area/NYC/Honolulu
17,863 posts, read 8,453,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reneeh63 View Post
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...york-city.html


"Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died.

That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted.

These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both."
That's sloppy journalism by the NYT. No, the numbers don't contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died anyway. That would be the case if none of the normal number count of deaths for that period were counted among the covid total, but I've seen nothing to confirm that they are not being counter; perhaps its elsewhere in the article, but I haven't read it, only the blurb provided here. Now, if the argument was that most or all (or nearly all) of the covid patients would have died anyway, I think the numbers would contradict that, but many is subjective. Granted, the argument that the NYT seeks to contradict is also without solid evidence, but that's another story.
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Old 04-20-2020, 07:34 AM
 
1,163 posts, read 263,380 times
Reputation: 2119
The flu deaths suffer (no pun) from same math problems as the COVID deaths - unlike, say, gunshot wounds. Flu deaths are ALSO over/under reported, are not always determined from a test (before or after death) and are compounded by other conditions (already stated above).


YES - some deaths marked as COVID would have been marked as something else, given enough time and resources. But we're not talking about marking up gunshot wounds as COVID. If you have COVID symptoms, you're being treated or advised for COVID, your family sees you're sick of what is probably COVID, and now you die, during an COVID pandemic - it is not a stretch to write COVID on your death certificate - even if your spouse poisoned you instead. So - yep - there is (with this method) a risk of overcount - but it will be some small percent, not a game changing number. And whatever that percent is - it's EXACTLY the same percent as with influenza. Because it's counted the same way.



So no matter how ya spin it - COVID is closing in on flu deaths - as even the most skeptical scientist knew it would - and that is WITH a couple billion people in voluntary isolation. Don't worry though - I'm sure as soon as it actually passes the flu count, they'll move the goal posts again.


If you're still reading - because, like me, you're a realist about this: Go to the CDC website find how many people died of pneumonia last year. Not from the flu. Just regular pneumonia. YES - I know lots of people die from pneumonia BECAUSE of the flu - and that's fine. But as it turns out...lots die of pneumonia NOT because of the flu. How do we separate? How can we know? Impossible situation. So those large "dead from flu" numbers? Always more than actually died. Just like COVID.
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