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Old 04-25-2020, 10:55 AM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
23,360 posts, read 17,235,625 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frankrj View Post
Yes, it's well understood what they put on the death certificate as COD. Yet everyone knows if the person did not have the co-morbidity, COPD, they likely would have recovered. News never reports recoveries or asymptomatic. That's too boring and doesn't catch your attention.

Example: You were speeding down the hill and went off the embankment. Accident gets listed as speeding, yet after CSI investigated they found break failure from a driver with zero accidents or tickets. The cause of death was appropriately changed.

Obviously I am not claiming all or half are questionable. But the person who is 100-200 lbs overweight, has extremely high blood pressure, heart arythmia, or breathes from their neck from chain smoking, should not be listed as Covid and call it a day. I know there's errors and reporting of all CODs well before Covid-19. Just saying this because the media is reporting these deaths as 100% accurate and absolute.

Aren't we supposed to be lovers of digging deep into the data and not looking at the surface? Below the surface we know the major contributing cause. Italy studied 95% if its mortality cases and found obesity and co-morbidity as the major factors of death. Some doctors over there and Latin America have changed it altogether when nurses questioned the reporting.
Are you trying to argue that they would have died when they did without exposure to the virus?

Why is it so hard for people to accept that the virus is/was the tipping point and as such is the direct cause of death?
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Old 04-25-2020, 04:29 PM
 
2,255 posts, read 1,148,925 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post

Why is it so hard for people to accept that the virus is/was the tipping point and as such is the direct cause of death?

Politics?
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Old 04-25-2020, 08:17 PM
 
Location: Yadaa.at Kale
5,252 posts, read 2,728,104 times
Reputation: 6517
Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerLily24 View Post
Are you trying to argue that they would have died when they did without exposure to the virus?

Why is it so hard for people to accept that the virus is/was the tipping point and as such is the direct cause of death?
Absolutely it's the tipping point. Covid-19 is the most efficient death accelerator the world has seen in some time.

That said, it could be argued that many would have died within days, weeks or months without exposure to the virus, so the raw numbers may be overstating the danger represented to the average person. When you look at CDC mortality tables and see that the number of deaths this winter/spring is approximately the same as what was expected during this time period, well that's significant.

OTOH, many people have died from the virus who otherwise would have had many years ahead of them.
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Old 04-25-2020, 08:31 PM
 
1,384 posts, read 740,185 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arktikos View Post
When you look at CDC mortality tables and see that the number of deaths this winter/spring is approximately the same as what was expected during this time period, well that's significant.

Link? Can you show us the work with some numbers/quote? Have you run those numbers? I'd like to see what you've seen that compares this year's winter/spring (so far) deaths to the historical average(s).

Because a search turns up this: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_tables.htm

And that's a whole lotta work to put on us. So if you did it, please show us. I'd like to see it. To see what's "significant". Otherwise it's just your word.
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Old 04-25-2020, 10:56 PM
 
Location: Yadaa.at Kale
5,252 posts, read 2,728,104 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crusinsusan View Post
Link? Can you show us the work with some numbers/quote? Have you run those numbers? I'd like to see what you've seen that compares this year's winter/spring (so far) deaths to the historical average(s).

Because a search turns up this: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/mortality_tables.htm

And that's a whole lotta work to put on us. So if you did it, please show us. I'd like to see it. To see what's "significant". Otherwise it's just your word.
Look at first table in column under percent of expected deaths.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

NYC almost 200% though. At the bottom is a state to state tally.

Last edited by Arktikos; 04-25-2020 at 11:11 PM..
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Old 04-25-2020, 11:45 PM
 
2,255 posts, read 1,148,925 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arktikos View Post
Look at first table in column under percent of expected deaths.https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

NYC almost 200% though. At the bottom is a state to state tally.

Did you read the footnote?


2) Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019. Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death (<25%), and then increases over time such that data are generally at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred.



I don't like interpreting stats just before bedtime lol but this tells me this is only at least 75% complete for late February CV deaths which were virtually zero and much less so (basically unreliable) for all of the more recent deaths.
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Old 04-26-2020, 10:33 AM
 
1,163 posts, read 262,639 times
Reputation: 2119
I must be missing the point - help!


The table does indeed show the bulk of winter and spring deaths to be about what we expect. On the other hand, since 45,000 of the 50000 deaths happened in April - I would not expect to see a significant indicator on this chart until the last week of March (a few thousand deaths) and then on in to April.



As Deserterererer pointed out - the footnote says this data is incomplete - the page explains that, while in general the numbers are free to move up or down, specifically in this case it means they don't have all the death certificates yet - and some other reasons - which implies - these "dead" numbers - if revised will move UP - not down. But if they don't move it all - we already had 109% of expected deaths for the first week of April. Since an "regular" week has about 7x8000=56000 deaths - and 10% of that is 5600 - and WIKI tells me about 5000 people died of COVID - seems to add up to me.


Most interesting thing on that chart, though, which I have been begging people to look at for two months - is the REAL number of "flu" deaths. Note that "pneumonia" does NOT include FLU (see footnote) while FLU does indeed include pneumonia. And still - just 500 / week for flu. If flu season were 52 weeks long, that's 26 thousand flu deaths in a year. I'm just reinforcing the point: The CDC does NOT say 60 or 80 thousand people die of the flu. They say they die of the flu and / or pneumonia. But this particular chart does a breakdown for us. However it's interpreted - COVID kills more than the flu by a pretty good margin.
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Old 04-27-2020, 02:50 PM
 
1,384 posts, read 740,185 times
Reputation: 3564
Ah, Deserterer, rood, you're handy dandy gadgets to have around. Thanks for doing the work.


edited to add: I wonder what Colbert will say tonight....Friday was a rerun, and he's off Sat/Sun.
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Old 04-27-2020, 02:57 PM
 
1,163 posts, read 262,639 times
Reputation: 2119
You're welcome!
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Old 04-27-2020, 04:06 PM
 
Location: Not far from Fairbanks, AK
17,082 posts, read 30,226,247 times
Reputation: 12996
Quote:
Originally Posted by roodd279 View Post
Of course they're not the only ones. If you have symptoms, you're being treated, you're found dead, and we're in a Pandemic - there's a good chance you died of COVID. PA adjusted their numbers - once - by about 200 people. Of those 200 - they are ALL probably. I think it's safe to say that at least SOME Of them did, in fact, die of COVID - since they meet the conditions above. They just weren't given a test. Yet. In a month - when that test happens - and the numbers take a one time jump back up - i'm certain some folks will just say it again: "OH LOOK!! MANIPULATION!!"


It's not a conspiracy, people. It's just logistics, paperwork, policies and biology. The guy with the swab is not "johnny on the spot" at the moment of death, nor are the results immediately available. And - it doesn't matter much to THAT guy.


He's dead.
Only a percentage of the people who show symptoms are being tested, not the whole population of a city or town. I lot of people have very minor symptoms, and don't get tested. In fact of know of some in Alaska who were was in close contact with his wife (she was tested and had the Coronavirus), but since he developed symptoms that were so minor, he wasn't tested. I imagine that a portion of the population have already built a degree of immunity to this virus from previews exposures to it, or perhaps that a lot of these people have very healthy immune systems. This wave of the Coronavirus may be slightly different than other Coronavirus, but according to what I read about this virus, it is still a sort a variant of similar viruses we have experienced in recent years.

Some of the people I know had all the symptoms of the flu early in the year, before the Coronavirus was all over the news. One of them got treated with antibiotics because she had problems breathing and the doctor could not determine what the problem was (she went to the hospital thinking that she had the flu). Two weeks later she was fine.
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