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I posted the reference on this data on one of these threads: NYC experience shows ~25% of pts sick enough to get hospitalized (usually based on the criterion of elevated resp rate +/- decreased o2 sat) deteriorate to the point that transfer to the ICU is necessary. Of those, ~25% require intubation and mechanical ventilation....Of those pts, the death rate is 75% for pts <65y/o, and 97% for those >65y/o.
In regards death rate, a basic question for those older folks is how many of those deaths are "excess"-- ie- would not have occurred anyway this year for those pts?
Consider this: there are a little less than 3 million deaths per yr in the US, with 2M of those occurring in the 65+ age group....At this point, there have been about 60,000 CoViD deaths-- 75% in 65+...ie 45,000 deaths among the 2,000,000 yearly average...That's an increase (maybe) of only 2% in that age group.
I posted the reference on this data on one of these threads: NYC experience shows ~25% of pts sick enough to get hospitalized (usually based on the criterion of elevated resp rate +/- decreased o2 sat) deteriorate to the point that transfer to the ICU is necessary. Of those, ~25% require intubation and mechanical ventilation....Of those pts, the death rate is 75% for pts <65y/o, and 97% for those >65y/o.
In regards death rate, a basic question for those older folks is how many of those deaths are "excess"-- ie- would not have occurred anyway this year for those pts?
Consider this: there are a little less than 3 million deaths per yr in the US, with 2M of those occurring in the 65+ age group....At this point, there have been about 60,000 CoViD deaths-- 75% in 65+...ie 45,000 deaths among the 2,000,000 yearly average...That's an increase (maybe) of only 2% in that age group.
Is the destruction of the economy worth it?
What would have happened without the mitigation measures? That question seem seems to be getting overlooked.
I posted the reference on this data on one of these threads: NYC experience shows ~25% of pts sick enough to get hospitalized (usually based on the criterion of elevated resp rate +/- decreased o2 sat) deteriorate to the point that transfer to the ICU is necessary. Of those, ~25% require intubation and mechanical ventilation....Of those pts, the death rate is 75% for pts <65y/o, and 97% for those >65y/o.
In regards death rate, a basic question for those older folks is how many of those deaths are "excess"-- ie- would not have occurred anyway this year for those pts?
Consider this: there are a little less than 3 million deaths per yr in the US, with 2M of those occurring in the 65+ age group....At this point, there have been about 60,000 CoViD deaths-- 75% in 65+...ie 45,000 deaths among the 2,000,000 yearly average...That's an increase (maybe) of only 2% in that age group.
Is the destruction of the economy worth it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzy_q2010
What would have happened without the mitigation measures? That question seem seems to be getting overlooked.
I don't know if anyone can answer your questions since we don't have a control group but the better question is what did the mitigation efforts buy us given that many of the deaths in the elderly population were in nursing homes. Closing down of businesses and schools did little to mitigate those deaths.
Main thing lockdown did was buy us time to get prepared.
That assumes that indeed the lockdown-time has been spent productively, in doing research, finding remedies, preparing infrastructure and so forth. If this wasn't done, or was done sufficiently, then the eventual casualty-count will be unaffected. All that we've done is delayed the inevitable deaths by curtailing human/social/economic activity.
Here's an analogy. If we have prediction that a 150 mph hurricane is coming, then we can evacuate people from the hurricane's path. We can affix plywood to windows, secure flexible/fragile edifices, move to safety the delicate/movable things. But if the hurricane were, for argument's sake, 1500 mph, then all of that preparation is moot. We might as well keep partying and dancing outdoors, because those winds are going to kill us, whether we're out sunning on the beach or hunkering in nuclear fallout shelters. All that the "preparations" would do, is to make us stressed and miserable.
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