Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
As I've said: The Grim Reaper is much better with pandemics than finances.
The mess the world is in now is because the world didn't properly prepare for a pandemic. That's the ultimate culprit: lack of planning. We must insist on better leadership, medical and otherwise, and clearer, precise information from those whom we've charged to do the work.
And then WE have to look at/read their work critically. Not just make assumptions based on headlines or what Joe Blow said.
Ya. Rood. I posted this because it lays it out pretty clearly...I have to say I didn't know the actual flu numbers were so low. I didn't come across anything about it. But I have not known anyone who died of the flu, but I do know of someone who died of Covid...well, I was suspicious as the doctor was.
The pro-plague people will be here, I'm sure. Making no sense. But as the article states, Covid-19 deaths are somewhere between 9x to 44x more than we currently think. That is, if you want to speak of flu numbers alongside it.
To be clear, those "actual flu numbers" are not "actual flu numbers". Those are just the ones captured by death certificates. A lot of patients whose original illness was flu never have it put on their death certificates. They may test negative when they get to the hospital because by then there is no virus in the nose and they have a superimposed bacterial pneumonia, for example. That is why the CDC goes through the complex process of doing the estimation.
Considering the population of the US it would not be unusual for you to not know someone who died from flu, even if there were 60,000 flu associated deaths per year.
The last person I personally knew who died in a motor vehicle accident was a cousin who died in 1984, yet almost 39,000 died in the US last year.
Suzy's right-- the flu deaths are estimates because flu presents as a non-specific pneumonitis and actual tests for specific viruses are rarely bothered with. A geezer with COPD and HTN who develops a cough, fever and infiltrate on CXR and bacterial cultures are negative is probably signed out as "COD- viral pneumonitis, COPD & HTN"...
Whereas COViD has a unique presentation of fever and pneumonitis with atypical ground glass infiltrates on CT scan, so, even without a positive CoV test, the COD will be listed correctly as CoViD…..The Influenza deaths are estimated based on a sample of med records, while the news-worthy status of CoViD gives us a fairly accurate, daily count.
If Influenza deaths are reports as 3.5K -16K, and CoViD deaths as 65K, then the proper way to compare them is ( 3.5/65 = 5% and 16/65 = 25%)... "CoViD is 75-95% more deadly than Influenza"....
...But-- since the CoViD epidemic isn't over yet, none of the comparisons like this make any sense at all at this point.
BTW-- As long as we're asking meaningless questions and bringing up meaningless points, I think 16 angels can dance on the head of a pin. What's your guess?
"...The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year;
they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is,
counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts...."
"...To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse...."
I am SO glad that people are waking up to this. I have argued this point for YEARS on CD. It was no surprise that Americans just did not understand the gravity of the situation back in February, when behaviors could have made more of a difference.
I am SO glad that people are waking up to this. I have argued this point for YEARS on CD. It was no surprise that Americans just did not understand the gravity of the situation back in February, when behaviors could have made more of a difference.
I was one of these problems. I know others too. A lot of us didn't take the virus seriously at first because often these viruses would effect dozens, maybe hundreds and that's it. This time, it didn't and it affected a lot of people. Covid-19 sadly is marginalized by people saying it is no worse than the flu.
I am SO glad that people are waking up to this. I have argued this point for YEARS on CD. It was no surprise that Americans just did not understand the gravity of the situation back in February, when behaviors could have made more of a difference.
WRONG!
Tighter measures to slow the spread would only keep a larger portion of the population vulnerable for a longer period of time, ie-- death rate would be slowed down ("flatten the curve") BUT- total deaths would eventually be the same with or without the "social distancing & quarantine." (That's because we couldn't possibly achieve 100% quarantine.)
The infection rate/death rate only becomes controlled when the herd immunity level is reached--ie-- "X%" of people have been exposed and become immune. For a virus like CoV spread by the air-borne route, that's really high (70%+). That number has nothing to do with "rate of spread," only with total cases.
Deaths accrue regardless of medical care: most people don't get sick enough from CoViD to warrant care, and 88% of those sick enough to require maximum medical support die anyway. For those lucky 12%, the financial cost (either medical &/or societal) are hardly worth it, from the "public good" standpoint.
Keep in mind that, using the 60,000 CoViD deaths & 12% vent survival rates and the fact that at least 60 healthcare workers have died from CoViD, then for every 100 lives "saved" by med care, at least one med worker was killed to do it. (Really much, much higher rate of sacrifice because not nearly all 60,000 pt deaths made it to the ventilator stage.)
HOAX! Cuz government!! You can't count! CDC is in someone's pocket! You're russian!
I would have NEVER been sick if chemtrails hadn't dropped 5G all over the flat earth. It's Proof! It's Proof!
(am I on the right trail?)
Susan and Suzy, I have been trying to tell people this for three months - good luck. This virus has brought a stubborn flock to the top of the heap, and, while I ordinarily ignore them, this is literally life and death for some folks. No time for nonsense. I continue to post because I hope that just ONE fence-sitter will fall on the side of reality, and not kill their gramma as a result.
Awesome post.
We have to take into account the trolls being paid to sew division and disinformation that this is just a cold echoed by the right wing sycophants like Limbaugh and Hannity early on. Now they've moved on to crying about their freedom being trampled on. Half of this garbage is manufactured by the trolls and the low information lap it up.
Those of us who haven't been drinking the koolaid and haven't been gas lighted to the point of disbelief with the images we are seeing of body after body being loaded into refrigerator trucks because the morgues can't keep up, understands that this is unlike anything we've ever seen before.
Numbers are one thing. Seeing it unfold in real life? Quite another.
Trump finger pointing and manufacturing the conspiracy theory that this was a man made weapon accidentally released. typical.
It's not hard to see the reality of a botched response when you see a model one like in Thailand. Living in fantasy land only works for a little while until reality sets in.
Tighter measures to slow the spread would only keep a larger portion of the population vulnerable for a longer period of time, ie-- death rate would be slowed down ("flatten the curve") BUT- total deaths would eventually be the same with or without the "social distancing & quarantine." (That's because we couldn't possibly achieve 100% quarantine.)
The infection rate/death rate only becomes controlled when the herd immunity level is reached--ie-- "X%" of people have been exposed and become immune. For a virus like CoV spread by the air-borne route, that's really high (70%+). That number has nothing to do with "rate of spread," only with total cases.
Deaths accrue regardless of medical care: most people don't get sick enough from CoViD to warrant care, and 88% of those sick enough to require maximum medical support die anyway. For those lucky 12%, the financial cost (either medical &/or societal) are hardly worth it, from the "public good" standpoint.
Keep in mind that, using the 60,000 CoViD deaths & 12% vent survival rates and the fact that at least 60 healthcare workers have died from CoViD, then for every 100 lives "saved" by med care, at least one med worker was killed to do it. (Really much, much higher rate of sacrifice because not nearly all 60,000 pt deaths made it to the ventilator stage.)
I don't actually disagree with the inevitability, if I am understanding your post correctly. I am all in favor of attaining herd immunity & I realize that behaviors have slowed this process down.
I do think, however, that there is some benefit to staggering the rate of infections to avoid overwhelming the system. Also a benefit of being in the group who gets sick later, rather than sooner, as more & more is being learned every day on effective therapeutics for those sick with COVID.
Regardless; knowledge is power & having so many people not understanding the actual threat from COVID, thinking it was somewhere in the same risk between the common cold & the flu; wasn't helping anybody.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Awesome post. 
