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Pandemic? Never say never. But unlikely, IMO. But there have been outbreaks within communities with low vaccination rates (NYC in 2018, Minneapolis and an Arizona ICE detention facility in 2017, Shelby County, Tennessee in 2016, etc.).
In 2000 - because of a highly effective vaccination program in the United States, as well as better measles control in the Americas region - there had been an absence of continuous disease transmission for greater than 12 months for Measles, the rubric that the CDC uses to declare a disease eliminated.
Prior to the vaccine in 1963, it is estimated that 3-4 million people in the U.S. got measles annually.
With the recommendation of a second dose of vaccine in the '80s, it declined to 100 confirmed cases in 1999 according to the CDC. Then down to 86 in 2000 (CDC).
Again, by the CDC's rubric, measles had been eliminated.
Last year, it was 1,282 according to the CDC, which is the highest number since 1992.
His comment "pick the bug you want to die from" suggests to me that he feels this way about all vaccines.
You and I have been round' and round' about vaccination. Neither of us is going to convince the other of anything. I had mumps, rubella, and chicken pox. I'm grateful my kids could avoid all those and shingles when they get older.
I think most people understand though the importance of mandatory vaccination for the diseases on the recommended vaccine schedule.
Who are you including in the "mandatory vaccination"? Adults as well as for school children? My Senior husband has gotten every single vaccine on the Senior list, and has still caught every one. Must be asymptomatic me giving it to him? Is shingles now contagious too?
Yes, you and I do not agree, and that is why I don't have or go to doctors. MY choice.
Who are you including in the "mandatory vaccination"? Adults as well as for school children? My Senior husband has gotten every single vaccine on the Senior list, and has still caught every one. Must be asymptomatic me giving it to him? Is shingles now contagious too?
Yes, you and I do not agree, and that is why I don't have or go to doctors. MY choice.
Shingles has always been contagious. But if you've ever had chicken pox, you are at risk of a spontaneous shingles episode later in life. UNLESS you get the shingles vaccine, which is relatively new in comparison to other vaccines.
I'm not against vaccinations. I'm against punishments for not getting them. As long as the religious & nut-case objectors remain a small enough group, there's no statistical defense for insisting they get them.
A couple other points:
-shingles is not contagious. You get it as a late complication of previous infection....The shingles rash does shed active virus which can cause chicken pox in a non-immune person.
-pertussis vaccine is not all that effective in preventing infection, BUT- it has greatly lowered the death rate from whooping cough.
-tetanus and diphtheria, both serious diseases, have almost been wiped out by vaccine programs.
-For MMR-- mumps can have serious complications (although rare) when contacted in adulthood, so maybe vaccination has benefit. Rubella has serious and frequent complications when contacted by pregnant females. Vaccine has definite benefit...We could argue that Rubeola isn't the serious disease it was in the 19th century (the natural history of all infectious diseases is to evolve into less virulent bugs) but, as long as we're gunna give the MR, we may as well add the other M.
-polio-- do we need a complicated analysis to defend this one?
-newer vaccines, like hepatitis or HPV aren't clearly so beneficial when you review the stats & side effects. Profit motives rather than medical advantages seem to motivate the need for them.
-Recommendations on the flu vac is a classic case of profit motives affecting medical advice. They don't "save lives." The only ones who succumb to flu are those so feeble they're just looking for an excuse to leave.
I'm not against vaccinations. I'm against punishments for not getting them. As long as the religious & nut-case objectors remain a small enough group, there's no statistical defense for insisting they get them.
A couple other points:
-shingles is not contagious. You get it as a late complication of previous infection....The shingles rash does shed active virus which can cause chicken pox in a non-immune person.
-pertussis vaccine is not all that effective in preventing infection, BUT- it has greatly lowered the death rate from whooping cough.
-tetanus and diphtheria, both serious diseases, have almost been wiped out by vaccine programs.
-For MMR-- mumps can have serious complications (although rare) when contacted in adulthood, so maybe vaccination has benefit. Rubella has serious and frequent complications when contacted by pregnant females. Vaccine has definite benefit...We could argue that Rubeola isn't the serious disease it was in the 19th century (the natural history of all infectious diseases is to evolve into less virulent bugs) but, as long as we're gunna give the MR, we may as well add the other M.
-polio-- do we need a complicated analysis to defend this one?
-newer vaccines, like hepatitis or HPV aren't clearly so beneficial when you review the stats & side effects. Profit motives rather than medical advantages seem to motivate the need for them.
-Recommendations on the flu vac is a classic case of profit motives affecting medical advice. They don't "save lives." The only ones who succumb to flu are those so feeble they're just looking for an excuse to leave.
I stand corrected - shingles is not contagious, but it can cause chicken pox in someone who is not already immune to it.
As for the flu vaccine: it isn't about prevention. It's about risk reduction. Your risk of getting the flu is reduced if you are vaccinated. Your risk of having severe symptoms is also reduced, if you are vaccinated and get the flu anyway.
Hepatitis was considered epidemic in certain parts of Florida recently. If you plan on living in those parts of Florida, then the vaccine would certainly benefit you.
HPV seems to be more emotionally charged than others because it involves sexual contact and risk for children. People get squeamish when they are asked to consider the possibility that their 12-year-old might engage in sexual activity. No, it's not likely that they will any time soon. But it is a possibility. That's why by that age, they should know how babies are made, what menstruation is, what ejaculation is, what intimate touching is, what "saying no" means...and yes - how to prevent pregnancy and disease if they, in their youthful stupidity, choose to ignore the advice of their parents. An HPV vaccination can save a 12 year old girl from getting cervical cancer when she's 30. That alone is good enough reason to get vaccinated.
Regarding "punishments" for not being vaccinated - I agree. It shouldn't be a crime to be unvaccinated. No one should have to pay a fine, or get arrested, or go to jail for choosing not to vaccinate their kids.
HOWEVER
Social distancing should be enforceable. If you choose to not vaccinate your children than the natural consequence (not punishment) of this is - the school should not be required to accept your unvaccinated child into the school population. Or perhaps they should allow it, but require your child to wear a mask from the moment he gets to the bus stop until the moment he's dropped back off at home again.
I think that's reasonable. Risk reduction is all you can - and should - reasonably expect. So make the kid wear a mask. And if he refuses to, or takes it off and refuses to put it back on, or you choose not to send him to school with a mask - then he is not welcome in the school until there is compliance.
It's a health issue, not a social issue. Even vaccines don't always provide 100% immunity (such as in the case of the flu vaccine). Immuno-compromised, and people who have allergies to the ingredients in the vaccines and therefore -cannot- be vaccinated - have to be taken into account when a school system makes its health policies.
I stand corrected - shingles is not contagious, but it can cause chicken pox in someone who is not already immune to it.
As for the flu vaccine:...
Hepatitis was considered epidemic in certain parts of Florida recently. If you plan on living in those parts of Florida, then the vaccine would certainly benefit you.
HPV seems to be...
Social distancing should be enforceable. .....
Flu vax-- you trade lower severity of episode for temporary immunity. Next time that strain comes around, you probably won't have immunity.
HPV- the first vaccine gave only temporary immunity (~5 yrs.) Given to a 12 y/o, you provided minimal risk reduction to the population. Newer vax is apparently a little better..... It's a disingenuous argument to claim "saving even one case makes it worth it" because in statistical analysis YOU are NEVER, the ONE.
Review this article- particularly Figures 3 & 4. For non-healthcare setting, you'll see that masks are really almost useless-- Without a mask, statistically speaking, 1 in 5 encounters with an infected individua will result in transmission of the bug; with a mask, 1 in 8-- not really much difference if you're out and about regularly...Better to avoid the encounters. (This for SARS/MERS/CoV)
Social distancing- you really need 3 m+ to be relatively safe...and probably factors like time of exposure, size of the room and ventilation are more important than actual distance. (also for SARS/MERS/CoV)
Personally, at age 70, I avoid going out at all, avoid high traffic/small area stores and wear a mask if spending more than a split second in a store....OTOH, I recommended my 35y/o son to go about things normally (80% of deaths are in the 65+ age group, despite a much lower infection rate, ie- younger people are not really at very much risk)....Only herd immunity will end the epidemic.
In the absence of an effective vaccine for COVID, IMO it's prudent if everyone were to practice all the measures for which one has evidence that they work in one way or another to prevent transmission within the community. Even if the percentage effectiveness of each measure may be small, together they will have a more forceful effect.
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