December was the deadliest, most infectious month since start of pandemic (infection, blood)
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The United States closed out 2020 with the deadliest and most infectious month since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, while also surpassing 20 million confirmed Covid-19 cases.
More than 77,000 people lost their lives in December to Covid-19, while 6.4 million contracted the virus amid the emergence of a new virus variant and delayed efforts to get people vaccinated. The second-deadliest month was April 2020, with more than 58,000 deaths.
At least 227,651 new cases were reported on Thursday and 3,451 people died, marking the second-highest daily death toll, according to on NBC News' tally.
The virus has killed more than 346,000 people in the U.S.
Something for you non believers to contemplate as we start 2021
Wear your masks, practice social distancing, wash you hands often and get vaccinated as soon as you can
We don't need anyone from CD to win this year's Darwin Award
Something for you non believers to contemplate as we start 2021
Wear your masks, practice social distancing, wash you hands often and get vaccinated as soon as you can
We don't need anyone from CD to win this year's Darwin Award
Well, if we have 20 million CONFIRMED cases, then using the CDC multiplier of 10X to account for the unconfirmed cases, that means that we have had about 200 MILLION cases of Covid in the US to date. This is about 60% of our total (335,000,000) population. At this rate, we should be achieving herd immunity in a couple of months even without the vaccine.
Yeah, your 10x estimate was from an article in June, and the data was before that - before wide-spread testing was common. The tests have caught up quite a bit with the cases.
Right now, it's more like 2-3x the USA confirmed cases, call it 50 million. This rhymes well with the (separately derived) overall death rate of 0.65% - about 325,000 would be dead, with 50M sick. Kinda works out.
Meantime - antibody tests (from blood donations and other sources) do not add up to 200 million people.
Yeah, your 10x estimate was from an article in June, and the data was before that - before wide-spread testing was common. The tests have caught up quite a bit with the cases.
Right now, it's more like 2-3x the USA confirmed cases, call it 50 million. This rhymes well with the (separately derived) overall death rate of 0.65% - about 325,000 would be dead, with 50M sick. Kinda works out.
Meantime - antibody tests (from blood donations and other sources) do not add up to 200 million people.
First, where did you get the 2-3X multiplier? Seems awfully low to me. I'd believe maybe 7-8X, but not 2-3X.
Second, surely you don't believe that everyone who has had Covid has also had an antibody test do you?
I personally don’t believe Covid to be a death note, and I also believe a lot more people are contracting it than getting tested, that stated though, I don’t think we are anywhere close to herd immunity just basing on historical context of the last time we relied on it. The 1918 Spanish Flu, although far more deadly - took approximately 3 years for herd immunity to be achieved and there was very little in the way of shut downs or social distancing. This also happened during a period when the nation was much less populated. Herd immunity will most likely not be close to being achieved before we have a vaccine even if were operating BAU.
It doesn't appear that herd immunity is nearly as far away as some people think.
"Summary
We estimate COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021).
At a high level, herd immunity is a concept in which a population can be protected from a virus if enough people possess immunity.
At the time herd immunity is reached, roughly half of the immunity will be achieved through natural infection, and the other half will be achieved through vaccination.
New infections may become minimal before herd immunity is reached."
It doesn't appear that herd immunity is nearly as far away as some people think.
"Summary
We estimate COVID-19 herd immunity (>60% of population immune) will be reached in the US during summer 2021 (Jun-Aug 2021).
At a high level, herd immunity is a concept in which a population can be protected from a virus if enough people possess immunity.
At the time herd immunity is reached, roughly half of the immunity will be achieved through natural infection, and the other half will be achieved through vaccination.
New infections may become minimal before herd immunity is reached."
Yeah but they are also basing vaccinations in this claim.
Quote:
Herd immunity will be reached through immunity from two sources: vaccination and natural infection. On this page, we provide the latest COVID-19 vaccine projections.
&
Quote:
Assumptions
The underlying assumptions behind our estimates are presented below:
Basic Assumptions
We assume immunity can be achieved through either natural infection or vaccination.
I particularly do not know how much longer it would take to achieve herd immunity, but I believe vaccinations would greatly accelerate the process.
January will be every worse w/all the people who ignored advice to not travel or get together w/others outside of immediate household for Christmas/New Year's and did anyway.
January will be every worse w/all the people who ignored advice to not travel or get together w/others outside of immediate household for Christmas/New Year's and did anyway.
Not to mention that the new, more infectious strain is spreading quite quickly throughout the country as well. Been here for a while now.
Something for you non believers to contemplate as we start 2021
Wear your masks, practice social distancing, wash you hands often and get vaccinated as soon as you can
We don't need anyone from CD to win this year's Darwin Award
Most people have been doing all that since last March. Didn't work.
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