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As COVID-19 continues to run its course, the likeliest long-term outcome is that the virus SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic in large swaths of the world, constantly circulating among the human population but causing fewer cases of severe disease. Eventually—years or even decades in the future—COVID-19 could transition into a mild childhood illness, like the four endemic human coronaviruses that contribute to the common cold.
“My guess is, enough people will get it and enough people will get the vaccine to reduce person-to-person transmission,” says Paul Duprex, director of the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Vaccine Research. “There will be pockets of people who won’t take [the vaccines], there will be localized outbreaks, but it will become one of the ‘regular’ coronaviruses.”
But this transition won’t happen overnight. Experts say that SARS-CoV-2’s exact post-pandemic trajectory will depend on three major factors: how long humans retain immunity to the virus, how quickly the virus evolves, and how widely older populations become immune during the pandemic itself.
Depending on how these three factors shake out, the world could be facing several years of a halting post-pandemic transition—one marked by continued viral evolution, localized outbreaks, and possibly multiple rounds of updated vaccinations.
“People have got to realize, this is not going to go away,” says Roy Anderson, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London. “We’re going to be able to manage it because of modern medicine and vaccines, but it’s not something that will just vanish out of the window.”
Fascinating article on just what we are up against in the long run
I've had Covid and it seemed to come in waves. I'm not even sure if I got over it and then got it again. I was sick in Oct and then in Dec which was much worse. I would test Negative and then I tested Positive for the antibodies. I'm much better now but I still have lingering effects from it. Hard to breathe at times and a little congestion and cough. I did everything imaginable so I would not get this virus and I did. I never left the house and went into a public place without a mask on. I live alone and had no contact with people, other than the Grocery store and a large gym I go to. Yet I got it. We don't know enough about this disease to know all the particulars on how someone gets it. It could come thru the ventilation systems of buildings for all we know. Legionaires Disease did.
People need to take it seriously but so many are nonchalant about the whole thing. I do understand its been just about a year now of this Pandemic in this country, and it has really taken a toll on people. I know it has on me. People just want some kind of normalcy and who can blame them. Personally I think the entire Pandemic could have been handled much better in this country than it has been.
that's right its not just going to go away and will be around for sometime to come. What an awful thought but that's the reality of this Virus.
Gyms do seem to meet all the criteria for a place the virus is likely to spread, especially because so many young people who are infected don't even know it. They go to the gym feeling just fine, but then they breathe heavily there, they touch door handles, weights, cardio machines, handrails... I mean it's a place you go to breathe heavily and touch things, so...
And since so many young people can be totally asymptomatic, they wouldn't be thinking "oh, I'm not feeling well, I'd better stay home from the gym."
I've had Covid and it seemed to come in waves. I'm not even sure if I got over it and then got it again. I was sick in Oct and then in Dec which was much worse. I would test Negative and then I tested Positive for the antibodies. I'm much better now but I still have lingering effects from it. Hard to breathe at times and a little congestion and cough. I did everything imaginable so I would not get this virus and I did. I never left the house and went into a public place without a mask on. I live alone and had no contact with people, other than the Grocery store and a large gym I go to. Yet I got it. We don't know enough about this disease to know all the particulars on how someone gets it. It could come thru the ventilation systems of buildings for all we know. Legionaires Disease did.
People need to take it seriously but so many are nonchalant about the whole thing. I do understand its been just about a year now of this Pandemic in this country, and it has really taken a toll on people. I know it has on me. People just want some kind of normalcy and who can blame them. Personally I think the entire Pandemic could have been handled much better in this country than it has been.
that's right its not just going to go away and will be around for sometime to come. What an awful thought but that's the reality of this Virus.
Hopefully you are better now. This is what this disease does, and people here refuse to accept that
So sorry for the challenges health wise this condition Imposes.
Transitions and incorporating new health prevention's is not a one trick pony.
Each high risk viral and or disease teaches awareness followed by adaptation.
I didn't delude myself that covid would just fade away. It's as real today as the day it was categorized.
After seeing first hand the loss of life to such, it becomes in your face..
Lysol and vaccine are not the cure all. It's the lessening though of deaths ...
As noted..the after effects ...the long term health maladies can be a sentence. Pulmonary ..and other organ malfunctions.
Yeah, its rather depressing to think we're stuck with this permanently from one degree to another. I will start getting out again once I have the vaccine, but I realize its not foolproof. Still, if its remotely like the flu shot I think I can live with it. Even without all the precautions we take now having got the flu vaccine since 1993 I've only had it once since then (2015) ... and its only 60% to 70% effective. With 90-95% vaccine effectiveness for COVID plus masks, hand washing/sanitizer and social distancing I'm hoping I never catch it.
Fauci seems to think if we have 80-85% vaccination rates we should be able to return to a degree of normalcy by summer, but masks and social distancing will never go away. As much as I hate the term its the "new normal" for those things plus yearly vaccinations. Will be a rocky four or five years as people learn to adapt and good herd immunity takes hold.
I'm must say right now though I'm about to go out of my gourd sitting around this house. I live alone now and my mother who I was caregiver for declined and past away by the beginning of summer (natural causes - old age). Toss in COVID-19 lockdowns and staying at home its added a whole new level to an already hard situation. I'm pretty tough but its wearing on me. Hopefully by summer things will be better.
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