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I am looking at patterns of increases. I'm not picking some random data point at all.
It's not really a pattern. Look at the waves of previous surges RIGHT before, those all contribute to the deaths. We had 3 waves pretty much right after another. Right now we are coming out of longer period of low cases. That affects the death numbers. Dying isn't always fast.
Ugh. Scratch my ref to the death rate on WOM, that wouldn't pertain to the subject. My bad.
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Because I can easily look up other surges in positive cases and hospitalizations and compare the death rates then and the rates are lower now. Seems to me that the virus is becoming more contagious and less lethal, as most viruses tend to do over time.
-can't rep you again yet....You got it right.
The only data I've seen is the initial report from GB about death rate vs Delta var--The initial death rate (for alpha var) was 1.9%--same as here in the US. Now the Death Rate for delta is only 0.1%.
Factors involved include changes in virulence of the bug, changes in immune status of hosts (like from the vax, for instance), and improved treatment. Treament hasn't gotten that much better, and most new infections seem to be in the unvaccinated, so the virulence factor would have to be the dominant one.
The population dynamics of an epidemic follow the same mathematical course as a car with a bad shock absorber (a system of under-damped forced oscillation for you physics buffs)-- Push down on the corner of a car with a bad shock and the car bobs up and down 3 or four times , each bob a little less than the previous one, until it comes to rest at equilibrium again.----That's EXACTLY what we're seeing with the CoV numbers-- a series of gradualy diminishing waves.
The present new "wave" was to be expected...Maybe even another one or two-- we can't predict because we don;t have accurate info to deterermine the values of constants in the math equation....Equilibrium will be establsihed when the bug causes a low but constant rate of new infections-- ie- it's no longer epidemic, but endemic....Keep in mind that SmallPox was the only bug ever wiped out completely-- and that took 50 yrs of hard work.
It's not really a pattern. Look at the waves of previous surges RIGHT before, those all contribute to the deaths. We had 3 waves pretty much right after another. Right now we are coming out of longer period of low cases. That affects the death numbers. Dying isn't always fast.
There wasn't a big surge nationwide before the huge surge in November. In fact, in mid September 2020 we dropped to where we were in mid July of this year.
It definitely IS a pattern - it's very easy to see.
The only data I've seen is the initial report from GB about death rate vs Delta var--The initial death rate (for alpha var) was 1.9%--same as here in the US. Now the Death Rate for delta is only 0.1%.
Factors involved include changes in virulence of the bug, changes in immune status of hosts (like from the vax, for instance), and improved treatment. Treament hasn't gotten that much better, and most new infections seem to be in the unvaccinated, so the virulence factor would have to be the dominant one.
The population dynamics of an epidemic follow the same mathematical course as a car with a bad shock absorber (a system of under-damped forced oscillation for you physics buffs)-- Push down on the corner of a car with a bad shock and the car bobs up and down 3 or four times , each bob a little less than the previous one, until it comes to rest at equilibrium again.----That's EXACTLY what we're seeing with the CoV numbers-- a series of gradualy diminishing waves.
The present new "wave" was to be expected...Maybe even another one or two-- we can't predict because we don;t have accurate info to deterermine the values of constants in the math equation....Equilibrium will be establsihed when the bug causes a low but constant rate of new infections-- ie- it's no longer epidemic, but endemic....Keep in mind that SmallPox was the only bug ever wiped out completely-- and that took 50 yrs of hard work.
Link please?
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The only data I've seen is the initial report from GB about death rate vs Delta var--The initial death rate (for alpha var) was 1.9%--same as here in the US. Now the Death Rate for delta is only 0.1%.
Factors involved include changes in virulence of the bug, changes in immune status of hosts (like from the vax, for instance), and improved treatment. Treament hasn't gotten that much better, and most new infections seem to be in the unvaccinated, so the virulence factor would have to be the dominant one.
The population dynamics of an epidemic follow the same mathematical course as a car with a bad shock absorber (a system of under-damped forced oscillation for you physics buffs)-- Push down on the corner of a car with a bad shock and the car bobs up and down 3 or four times , each bob a little less than the previous one, until it comes to rest at equilibrium again.----That's EXACTLY what we're seeing with the CoV numbers-- a series of gradualy diminishing waves.
The present new "wave" was to be expected...Maybe even another one or two-- we can't predict because we don;t have accurate info to deterermine the values of constants in the math equation....Equilibrium will be establsihed when the bug causes a low but constant rate of new infections-- ie- it's no longer epidemic, but endemic....Keep in mind that SmallPox was the only bug ever wiped out completely-- and that took 50 yrs of hard work.
Thanks for the breakdown and examples! I bolded the most critical element of what you're saying in my opinion.
A greater number of COVID-19 relevant comorbidities increased the risk of COVID-19 hospital admission (appendix p 3).
Quote:
Among S gene-negative cases, the effect of vaccination (at least 28 days after first or second dose) was to reduce the risk of hospital admission (HR 0·28, 95% CI 0·18–0·43) compared to unvaccinated.
Quote:
Considering the whole population cohort (rather than just hospital cases), the test-negative analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness in preventing RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection showed that, compared to those unvaccinated, at least 14 days after the second dose, BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine) offered very good protection: 92% (95% CI 90–93) S gene-negative, 79% (75–82) S gene-positive.
I think this is interesting as well, though it has nothing to do with the information out of Great Britain:
Quote:
Fully vaccinated people with Delta variant breakthrough infections can spread the virus to others. However, vaccinated people appear to be infectious for a shorter period: Previous variants typically produced less virus in the body of infected fully vaccinated people (breakthrough infections) than in unvaccinated people. In contrast, the Delta variant seems to produce the same high amount of virus in both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people. However, like other variants, the amount of virus produced by Delta breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people also goes down faster than infections in unvaccinated people. This means fully vaccinated people are likely infectious for less time than unvaccinated people.
Your links are saying that Delta is probably more dangerous.
Among the unvaccinated.
Which I agree with.
We know the largest percentage of current hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated.
So is this conversation about just mutations...... and just the vaccinated?
I could have missed that in the beginning.
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Lose weight, take supplements, go outside in the sun for at least half an hour daily, exercise even if it's a brisk walk, wash your hands, don't touch your face, get plenty of sleep, stay hydrated. You won't get colds, flu or covid. If you are still worried, keep a supply of HCQ or Ivermectin on hand.
People get addicted to drama and fear. That adrenaline rush makes them feel alive.
People get addicted to drama and fear. That adrenaline rush makes them feel alive.
Not the 632,000 who are dead.
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You still need to do the safety and effectiveness testing. You can't jab 300 million people with an untested vaccine. The process needs to be streamlined and improved. It's not like we don't know how to jab 20,000 people for a clinical trial in a couple of days and test them weekly to get efficacy data.
The variants won't wait that long while bureaucrats shuffle paper.
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