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I'm posting on the premise that the Central Powers either won the war because the United States never intervened on the Allied side, or after doing so, was badly mauiled by the Germans, That would have greatly fortified American isolationism.
Another unrecognized variable is how far along the general movement toward parliamentary pluralism would have been able to advance in Central Europe had the Germans been victorious. Regardless, the agitiation for Marxism would have been suppressed by the victors, just as in the Russia of 1919-21, and probably more viciously.
Poland would not have been reconstituted, and while the pogroms would have continued, the overwhelming, but less-assimilated portion of European Jewry in the land mass between Berlin and Moscow would have survived. Zionism wold have continued, possibly intensifed, but the problem of an Israeli homeland would not have been addressed.
The victorious Central Powers would likely have placed more emphasis on mercantilism than free trade; however, that might have eventually brought home the point that a colonial empire is costly to maintain, and the agitation spawned in India by Ghandi would likely have spread and intensified.
Britain would likewse have found the domestic social programs (whch were bradened and instensified, primarily under Lloyd George), too much of a burden. Britain might have gravitated toward fascism/populism, but i suspect the French would simply have devolved back toward a simpler, weaker, less-industrialized society in the mold of Italy.
The Balkans would have remained "Balkanized", but Germany would have put a damper on any potentially-emerging dominant Balkan state, since there would be no other power, such as France or Russia, to back it. Ditto for the Iberian peninsula, and South America would have seen mucmore German influence. Holland, Switzeland and Scandinavia would have had no choice but to "go along to get along".
As previously stated, American isolationist sentiment would have remained strong, and similar feelings among the Australians and New Zealanders, who were badly mauled at Gallipoli, might have drawn the two nations, not to mention the Canadians, closer together. Canadian ties to England would have been somewhat loosened, and agitation among various groups within might have led to a waekening of the Dominion, or a breakup into several component states, loodely federated and , in the case of Quebec, possibly completely separated.
So it would have been likely a mixed blessing; no twenty-year intermission before a second, and bloodier round of warfare, but far less progress toward either true parliamenary democracy, or rule by the markets rather than rule by the sword.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 04-09-2013 at 03:01 PM..
In this premise, Britain has been knocked out, has been defeated. The winners dictate the terms, not the losers.
But in real life some victories/defeats are more decisive than others.
After all, if the Germans are so totally victorious that they can impose absolutely anything they like, why stop at a "Versailles"? Why not have them just turn the British Isles into a protectorate like they seem to have intended with the Baltic states, or even annex it as Saki suggested in When William Came ?
But in real life some victories/defeats are more decisive than others.
After all, if the Germans are so totally victorious that they can impose absolutely anything they like, why stop at a "Versailles"? Why not have them just turn the British Isles into a protectorate like they seem to have intended with the Baltic states, or even annex it as Saki suggested in When William Came ?
Why are you arguing with me about the premise? Argue with the OP, it is Phil P's counter factual question.
The idea here isn't supposed to be "Could the Central Powers have won?", it is "What would the consequences of a Central Powers victory have been?"
Your concentration has been entirely on the hypothetical degree of the triumph and that degree would be a matter for the OP to decide, wouldn't it? It is all imaginary.
I have been treating it with the assumption that the German victory was no less complete than was the actual western powers victory. I am assuming that Germany would be in the same sort of position to dictate peace terms as England and France were after they won.
I'm posting on the premise that the Central Powers either won the war because the United States never intervened on the Allied side, or after doing so, was badly mauiled by the Germans, That would have greatly fortified American isolationism.
Another unrecognized variable is how far along the general movement toward parliamentary pluralism would have been able to advance in Central Europe had the Germans been victorious. Regardless, the agitiation for Marxism would have been suppressed by the victors, just as in the Russia of 1919-21, and probably more viciously.
Poland would not have been reconstituted, and while the pogroms would have continued, the overwhelming, but less-assimilated portion of European Jewry in the land mass between Berlin and Moscow would have survived. Zionism wold have continued, possibly intensifed, but the problem of an Israeli homeland would not have been addressed.
The victorious Central Powers would likely have placed more emphasis on mercantilism than free trade; however, that might have eventually brought home the point that a colonial empire is costly to maintain, and the agitation spawned in India by Ghandi would likely have spread and intensified.
Britain would likewse have found the domestic social programs (whch were bradened and instensified, primarily under Lloyd George), too much of a burden. Britain might have gravitated toward fascism/populism, but i suspect the French would simply have devolved back toward a simpler, weaker, less-industrialized society in the mold of Italy.
The Balkans would have remained "Balkanized", but Germany would have put a damper on any potentially-emerging dominant Balkan state, since there would be no other power, such as France or Russia, to back it. Ditto for the Iberian peninsula, and South America would have seen mucmore German influence. Holland, Switzeland and Scandinavia would have had no choice but to "go along to get along".
As previously stated, American isolationist sentiment would have remained strong, and similar feelings among the Australians and New Zealanders, who were badly mauled at Gallipoli, might have drawn the two nations, not to mention the Canadians, closer together. Canadian ties to England would have been somewhat loosened, and agitation among various groups within might have led to a waekening of the Dominion, or a breakup into several component states, loodely federated and , in the case of Quebec, possibly completely separated.
So it would have been likely a mixed blessing; no twenty-year intermission before a second, and bloodier round of warfare, but far less progress toward either true parliamenary democracy, or rule by the markets rather than rule by the sword.
Good points, just a couple of observations...
France - Moreso then Britain I think France following a defeat was ripe for the rise of an ultra-nationalist government. As it was France experienced a large nationalist movement in the interwar years and if that movement is coupled with a defeat in WW1, it may have become even more influential then it was. The prospect of a French "Hitler" could be very real following a defeat.
The Balkans - The status of the Balkans very much would hinge on the status of Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire. In a scenario where the Central Powers win, does that mean that Austria-Hungary remains in existence? Does the Ottoman Empire survive and regain its lost Balkans territories as a result? The status of these two fragile powers in any proposed scenario where the Central Powers win has a massive bearing on what the Balkans would look like.
this is all speculation. nobody knows and nobody will ever know.
In that the alternative would be some of the participants here believing that the Central Powers did win the war, I think everyone here is aware that this is speculation.
You are correct that it is impossible to know all that would have happened with any degree of certainty, but we can know with confidence some things which would not have happened. All which flowed from the French and British victory, would not have materialized. As I noted earlier, Corporal Hitler could hardly have gone around complaining about the "stab in the back" by the Jewish bankers and industrialists following a German victory. We know that it would have been the Germans with the say so in the makeup of post war Eastern Europe, not the Versailles powers, so that map would have been different.
Well what would have likely happened is France would have been forced into a Treaty of Versailles kind of Treaty, while Great Britain probably would end up with a sort of stalemate peace.
The Ottoman and Austria-Hungary would still be on their last legs (remember civil unrest in Austria-Hungary started the war). That would leave still leave Germany alone and the Allies likely would have done their own WWII for Revenge on the Germans, and a likely German defeat. Also the USSR would have been weaker so France and Great Britain would have been more influential than they were during the War. Also Germany would probably would have been like GB and France during the 30's letting France and Belgium re-militarize, and it would end similar to the Battle for France because Germany would not be Militarized like the French and British were not in 1939.
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