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Old 11-09-2013, 11:53 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jobseeker2013 View Post
1. I agree Germany would have been served with not having Wilhelm II as Kaiser.

2. He was an over aggressive fool, very much like Hitler decades later.

3. Without him, Europe and especially Germany, might have had a different course.

4. In the 1880s, They were not yet doomed, but after the turn of the century, it seems like there was going to be a war sooner or later.
1. Yes, that, or having Wilhelm II be born without (minimal) brain damage and without a crippled arm and/or Wilhelm II getting treated better by his parents afterwards (I think that Wilhelm's mother especially considered him to be imperfect due to his crippled arm).

And Yes, if Wilhelm II dies before becoming Kaiser in 1888 and Prince Heinrich becomes Kaiser in 1888 instead, then chances are that Germany will pursue a much more rational and possibly even liberal (domestically) policy throughout the next couple of/several decades.

2. Yes, except without the extreme genocidal aspects. To be fair, though, Wilhelm II had a disability (his crippled arm), which Hitler did not have.

3. Exactly.

4. Well, even with a more rational Kaiser in Germany, WWI or something similar might have eventually occurred if France was not properly satisfied (especially with a fair resolution of the Alsace-Lorraine dispute), but even with a vengeful France, World War I might have looked much differently in this scenario than in real life, with the alliances being Germany + Russia + maybe/perhaps Italy + some of the Slavic Balkan states + some other minor countries + possibly even the U.K. vs. France + Austria + the Ottoman Empire + some minor countries. If Kaiser Heinrich is smart and rational enough to avoid initiating a naval arms race with Britain and supporting German plans for an invasion of Belgium in an event of a German war with France (and he might have very well been smart and rational enough not to do these things), then the U.K. will probably either remain neutral or even fight on Germany's side if World War I still occurs in this scenario (which is hardly a guarantee). If World War I or some variant of it occurs in this scenario (again, this is not guaranteed to occur by any means), then it might occur sometime during either the 1910s or the 1920s. World War I in this scenario, if it still occurs, should probably result in a German and German-allied victory.
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Old 11-10-2013, 03:52 AM
Status: "Trump - excepting Jorgensen, the least of multiple evils" (set 8 days ago)
 
Location: Nescopeck, Penna. (birthplace)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaggy001 View Post
Britain was a sea power and not a land power. In 1914, the BEF was only six divisions strong. Although highly efficient, the presence or lack of presence of the British would not have stopped WW1.

The historian AJP Taylor* postulated that WW1 became inevitable as soon as one major power mobilized. Because the mobilization was entirely dependent on railways and their timetables, not mobilizing would give the powers that did a huge strategic advantage. In 1914, mobilization could not actually be stopped once started.

Once the armies were mobilized, the various war plans kicked in. The Germans had to execute the Schlieffen plan because they had to knock France out before the Russians could arrive on the scene. They could not actually afford to hold their armies back because of the strategic risk of a war on two fronts. The fact that France and Russia had mobilized was sufficient.

In that sense, WW1 was an accident waiting to happen. The trigger happened to be Sarajevo but it could have happened before or after. And the result would have probably been the same. Napoleonic tactics with 20th century weapons and a rail infrastructure that allowed the rapid movement of reserves.

* A. J. P. Taylor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
As a railroad buff and one-time operating railroader I have to add a few comments here:

Wartime is synonymous with rail disasters in all industrialized nations; The single greatest, in terms of loss of life, involved a runaway of an overloaded train with obsolete equipment, in the French Alps in 1917. The death toll is uncertain, somewhere between 500 and 700.

Saint-Michel-de-Maurienne derailment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Great Britain's worst accident also happened in wartime, at Gretna Green, Scotland, in 1915.

Quintinshill rail disaster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And four of America's worst, if transit accidents are included, also occurred during wartime, at Nashville(1917 - misread train orders) -- Malbone Street/Empire Blvd, Brooklyn (1918 - unqualified motorman) --Frankford Jct /Philadelphia (1943 - possible sabotage) and Buie, NC (1943 - derailment and collision on multiple track)

The reason for the high incidence is usually linked to the disruption of normal operating patterns; until 1930, railroads ran exclusively upon printed (fixed) schedules which could be overridden by written orders, but extra moves or major disruptions could cripple the entire system, since the growth in schedules affected could be nearly exponential, requiring too many orders and greater possibility of misunderstanding.
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Old 11-10-2013, 07:14 AM
 
541 posts, read 734,616 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist110 View Post
1. Yes, that, or having Wilhelm II be born without (minimal) brain damage and without a crippled arm and/or Wilhelm II getting treated better by his parents afterwards (I think that Wilhelm's mother especially considered him to be imperfect due to his crippled arm).

And Yes, if Wilhelm II dies before becoming Kaiser in 1888 and Prince Heinrich becomes Kaiser in 1888 instead, then chances are that Germany will pursue a much more rational and possibly even liberal (domestically) policy throughout the next couple of/several decades.

2. Yes, except without the extreme genocidal aspects. To be fair, though, Wilhelm II had a disability (his crippled arm), which Hitler did not have.

3. Exactly.

4. Well, even with a more rational Kaiser in Germany, WWI or something similar might have eventually occurred if France was not properly satisfied (especially with a fair resolution of the Alsace-Lorraine dispute), but even with a vengeful France, World War I might have looked much differently in this scenario than in real life, with the alliances being Germany + Russia + maybe/perhaps Italy + some of the Slavic Balkan states + some other minor countries + possibly even the U.K. vs. France + Austria + the Ottoman Empire + some minor countries. If Kaiser Heinrich is smart and rational enough to avoid initiating a naval arms race with Britain and supporting German plans for an invasion of Belgium in an event of a German war with France (and he might have very well been smart and rational enough not to do these things), then the U.K. will probably either remain neutral or even fight on Germany's side if World War I still occurs in this scenario (which is hardly a guarantee). If World War I or some variant of it occurs in this scenario (again, this is not guaranteed to occur by any means), then it might occur sometime during either the 1910s or the 1920s. World War I in this scenario, if it still occurs, should probably result in a German and German-allied victory.
I agree here also with your point about the Alliance system. Russia was upset at Austria over the Balkans and so was Italy over Austria's control Italians living near the Alps. Without Austria, Germany should have had good relations with Russia and Italy but would have faced a contentious Austria and probably sacrificed its Imperial ambitions in the Middle East. However, it would have been more secure on the surface. Russia would be an awesome ally. German industry matched by Russian manpower was often dreamt about in German military circles. Bismarck began preferring the Austrians over the Russians. Odviously not to the point Wilhelm would.

Last edited by jobseeker2013; 11-10-2013 at 07:35 AM..
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Old 11-10-2013, 10:14 PM
 
Location: Maryland about 20 miles NW of DC
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Another point is if WW1 and WW2 had not happened would science and technology have taken the path it did. Did the wars accelerate such things as aviation with jet propulsion a reality by the late 1930s, nuclear physics and lead to nuclear weapons by the mid-20th century and lastly would Wehrner von Braun remained the precotious son of a Prussian Junker familly never getting the resources to build the A-4 (V-5) and later the Saturn 5 for the USA which took 12 men to the Moon in his lifetime?
And would the USA have surpassed Europe and lead the Sciences from the 1940s to the 20th centuries end?
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Old 11-10-2013, 10:19 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mwruckman View Post
Another point is if WW1 and WW2 had not happened would science and technology have taken the path it did. Did the wars accelerate such things as aviation with jet propulsion a reality by the late 1930s, nuclear physics and lead to nuclear weapons by the mid-20th century and lastly would Wehrner von Braun remained the precotious son of a Prussian Junker familly never getting the resources to build the A-4 (V-5) and later the Saturn 5 for the USA which took 12 men to the Moon in his lifetime?
And would the USA have surpassed Europe and lead the Sciences from the 1940s to the 20th centuries end?
I would think that the development of science and technology would have been somewhat slower relative to real life with no WWI, WWII, and Cold War.

The Moon landings might have occurred in the early 21st century instead of during the 20th century, with the Internet and World Wide Web being developed and/or available to the public sometime between 2020 and 2050.

As for the U.S. surpassing Europe and leading the sciences, this would have probably still happened eventually due to the U.S.'s huge and (relatively) rapidly growing population, but it might have took longer, and it might have been a situation where the U.S. eventually dominated, but not as much as in real life (similar to what I think the situation with cinema/film/movies might have been with no WWI, WWII, and Cold War).
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Old 11-13-2013, 09:30 PM
 
541 posts, read 734,616 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist110 View Post
I would think that the development of science and technology would have been somewhat slower relative to real life with no WWI, WWII, and Cold War.

The Moon landings might have occurred in the early 21st century instead of during the 20th century, with the Internet and World Wide Web being developed and/or available to the public sometime between 2020 and 2050.

As for the U.S. surpassing Europe and leading the sciences, this would have probably still happened eventually due to the U.S.'s huge and (relatively) rapidly growing population, but it might have took longer, and it might have been a situation where the U.S. eventually dominated, but not as much as in real life (similar to what I think the situation with cinema/film/movies might have been with no WWI, WWII, and Cold War).
WW1 killed a generation of Europe's men. Who knows what geniuses would have risen had they had an opportunity to live.
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Old 11-13-2013, 09:47 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jobseeker2013 View Post
WW1 killed a generation of Europe's men. Who knows what geniuses would have risen had they had an opportunity to live.
Totally (not to mention the possible geniuses which were killed in WWII, the Holocaust, and the Cold War, all of which occurred as a result of WWI)!
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Old 11-16-2013, 10:56 PM
 
3,294 posts, read 3,083,418 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
With no WW I, then Gary Cooper would not have won the 1942 Best Actor Oscar for "Sergeant York." Instead it probably would have gone to Orson Welles for "Citizen Kane."
Wait, with this line of thinking Ronald Reagan never becomes president as he stays making mostly innocuous movies and doesn't get involved in WW2 wartime propaganda productions and become as much of an active participant in political arena. Hmmm

John Wayne does much less war movies in contemporary history (sans WW2) but plays more poorly cast roles like Ghengis Khan, say as a Roman gladiator or Japanese ninja - ouch!

One thing is for certain though, those Pin Up posters of classic American beauties (Betty Grable, Rita Hayworth, Lauren Bacall, Ginger Rogers, et al) would have still likely existed and proliferated
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Old 11-16-2013, 11:06 PM
 
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Originally Posted by jobseeker2013 View Post
WW1 was probably unavoidable because of nationalistic rivalries, economic competition, imperialism and the large peacetime armies. Too many people were itching for war.
Don't forget the enablers: War merchants and financiers. They salivate at war as it is the maker of fortunes at front end, middle, and back end: funding, supporting and betting both sides, then with loans to rebuild those areas destroyed. Consider them the enemy of humanity as they let the bullies have bigger sticks and appeal to the worst qualities in human kind.
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Old 11-17-2013, 01:09 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist110 View Post
Kaiser Wilhelm II also screwed up big time by sending a telegram to the Boers in 1896 congratulating them in regards to their victory over the British, as well as by invading Belgium (a British ally) in 1914.
At least within the British RF and high ranking persons there were no illusions about Wilhelm II either before and certainly not after he came to the throne. His mother after all was Queen Victoria's daughter so via that route and others many knew to keep an eye out.

As early as 1913 when the British RF attended the wedding of Wilhelm's daugher, Princess Victoria Louise of Prussia in Germany they were instructed on a few things by their government including the visit was a family affair, not a state one. The Kaiser had been making too much noise about war to suit the British government.
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