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Out of curiosity, had World War II not occurred at all (for instance, let's say that Wilhelm Marx defeats Hindeburg in 1925, gets re-elected in 1932, and the Great Depression's impact is reduced enough by 1939 in order to sufficiently and permanently weaken the Nazis), how likely would Germany have been to *eventually* acquire or to re-acquire the various territories which it either lost after World War I or which it was prevented from annexing after World War I?
As for my guess, I think that Germany's chances of *eventually* acquiring or re-acquiring these territories in such a scenario would have been:
*Saar: >99%; It was overwhelmingly ethnically German, and thus, the 1935 plebiscite would have resulted in an overwhelming majority vote in favor of returning to German rule with or without Hitler and the Nazis.
*Danzig: 90%; It was overwhelmingly ethnically German, and thus, once the Entente/Allies lose their will to strictly enforce the Versailles Treaty, Germany is likely to re-acquire Danzig in this scenario if it doesn't demand too much too quickly like Hitler did.
*Austria: 85%; The rationale here is pretty similar as for Danzig.
*Eupen and Malmedy: 50%; These areas had an ethnic German majority, but also a significant Walloon (French) minority. Belgium offered to sell them back to Germany in 1926 in our TL, only to be blocked by France. However, these areas also appeared to have strategic value for Belgium (by making its city of Liege more secure from a future German attack). Thus, I'd say that it's a toss-up on whether or not Germany eventually re-acquires these areas.
*The Sudetenland: 35%; It's strategic value would probably make Czechoslovakia very hesitant to give it up, but with enough Entente/Western pressure, it is possible for Germany to eventually acquire control over it (as in 1938 in our TL).
*Memel: 30%; It appears to have been a region with both many ethnic Lithuanians and ethnic Germans. However, I doubt that Lithuania would have given it up without significant Entente/Western pressure due to the fact that it provides Lithuania *much* greater access to the sea.
*South Tyrol: 25%; The rationale here is pretty similar as for the Sudetenland other than for the fact that AFAIK, Mussolini conducted a campaign to Italianize South Tyrol, which might have made it harder for Italy to give it up later on in this scenario.
*Other parts of Poland (post-World War I) which Germany controlled in 1914: 10%; Most of these areas had a large/overwhelming ethnic Polish majority. Thus, it would have probably been hard for Germany to re-acquire these areas in this scenario.
*Alsace-Lorraine: <0.1%; Hell would literally need to freeze over before France gives Alsace-Lorraine back to Germany in this scenario.
*North Schleswig: <0.1%; There was a plebiscite (referendum) there where the majority of the population clearly voted to return to Danish rule. Thus, the same rationale here applies as for Alsace-Lorraine.
Thoughts? Also, did I miss any areas/territories here?
Last edited by Futurist110; 04-15-2014 at 04:17 PM..
For reference, if this helps here, here is a map of the linguistic/ethnic composition of the various areas/territories in Germany in 1914. This map also shows which areas/territories Germany lost after World War I. Yes, this map is in German, but I coulnd't find an English version of this map.
Out of curiosity, had World War II not occurred at all (for instance, let's say that Wilhelm Marx defeats Hindeburg in 1925, gets re-elected in 1932, and the Great Depression's impact is reduced enough by 1939 in order to sufficiently and permanently weaken the Nazis), how likely would Germany have been to *eventually* acquire or to re-acquire the various territories which it either lost after World War I or which it was prevented from annexing after World War I?
As for my guess, I think that Germany's chances of *eventually* acquiring or re-acquiring these territories in such a scenario would have been:
*Saar: >99%; It was overwhelmingly ethnically German, and thus, the 1935 plebiscite would have resulted in an overwhelming majority vote in favor of returning to German rule with or without Hitler and the Nazis.
*Danzig: 90%; It was overwhelmingly ethnically German, and thus, once the Entente/Allies lose their will to strictly enforce the Versailles Treaty, Germany is likely to re-acquire Danzig in this scenario if it doesn't demand too much too quickly like Hitler did.
*Austria: 85%; The rationale here is pretty similar as for Danzig.
*Eupen and Malmedy: 50%; These areas had an ethnic German majority, but also a significant Walloon (French) minority. Belgium offered to sell them back to Germany in 1926 in our TL, only to be blocked by France. However, these areas also appeared to have strategic value for Belgium (by making its city of Liege more secure from a future German attack). Thus, I'd say that it's a toss-up on whether or not Germany eventually re-acquires these areas.
*The Sudetenland: 35%; It's strategic value would probably make Czechoslovakia very hesitant to give it up, but with enough Entente/Western pressure, it is possible for Germany to eventually acquire control over it (as in 1938 in our TL).
*Memel: 30%; It appears to have been a region with both many ethnic Lithuanians and ethnic Germans. However, I doubt that Lithuania would have given it up without significant Entente/Western pressure due to the fact that it provides Lithuania *much* greater access to the sea.
*South Tyrol: 25%; The rationale here is pretty similar as for the Sudetenland other than for the fact that AFAIK, Mussolini conducted a campaign to Italianize South Tyrol, which might have made it harder for Italy to give it up later on in this scenario.
*Other parts of Poland (post-World War I) which Germany controlled in 1914: 10%; Most of these areas had a large/overwhelming ethnic Polish majority. Thus, it would have probably been hard for Germany to re-acquire these areas in this scenario.
*Alsace-Lorraine: <0.1%; Hell would literally need to freeze over before France gives Alsace-Lorraine back to Germany in this scenario.
*North Schleswig: <0.1%; There was a plebiscite (referendum) there where the majority of the population clearly voted to return to Danish rule. Thus, the same rationale here applies as for Alsace-Lorraine.
Thoughts? Also, did I miss any areas/territories here?
With the exception of Alsace Lorraine, North Schleswig, South Tyrol, and parts of Poland, the chances of eventual annexation would be good, way above 50 percent
With the exception of Alsace Lorraine, North Schleswig, South Tyrol, and parts of Poland, the chances of eventual annexation would be good, way above 50 percent
I did state that I think that some areas/territories (specifically the Saar, Austria, and Danzig) had a much greater than 50% chance of eventually joining or rejoining Germany in this scenario.
However, while Eupen and Malmedy, the Sudetenland, Memel, and South Tyrol certainly have a non-miniscule chance of eventually joining or rejoining Germany in this scenario, I think that this option would be less likely (or in Eupen and Malmedy's case, about equally likely) for the reasons which I listed above.
I wonder why the Nazis never annexed North Schleswig? Mostly Danes like you mentioned I guess. Memel was seized after WW1 when Germany was weak, it did not take much effort from Hitler to get it back. Lithuania is no match for Germany. I think a different government could have done the same.
1. I wonder why the Nazis never annexed North Schleswig? Mostly Danes like you mentioned I guess.
2. Memel was seized after WW1 when Germany was weak, it did not take much effort from Hitler to get it back. Lithuania is no match for Germany. I think a different government could have done the same.
1. Because there was already a plebiscite (referendum) there after World War I which stated that a majority of the residents there prefer to live under Danish rule. Thus, Hitler couldn't use the national self-determination rationale there as he could in many other places.
2. This is a guess on my part, but I am wondering if Hitler's aggressiveness had anything to do with Lithuania giving it back. After all, I would think that Lithuania suspected what would occur if it refused to give it back. I am not sure that a different, non-Nazi German government would have (ever) been as aggressive as Hitler was, which for all I know might have perhaps made the difference in regards to Memel. That said, maybe a non-Nazi Germany might have been able to use diplomacy to work out some sort of compromise with Lithuania over Memel.
2. This is a guess on my part, but I am wondering if Hitler's aggressiveness had anything to do with Lithuania giving it back. After all, I would think that Lithuania suspected what would occur if it refused to give it back. I am not sure that a different, non-Nazi German government would have (ever) been as aggressive as Hitler was, which for all I know might have perhaps made the difference in regards to Memel.
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