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You have to put yourself in May/June 1940. Look around and see what all have and what they were thinking. Being wise in hindsight does not help here.
So, major questions:
Would have Mussolini declared war in June 1940 with the USA in the war?
What prompted Japan to declare war on the British Empire and the USA in Dec 1941 was that they thought the USSR was about to fall - it never and they were facing the world's two largest economies - exactly what they never wanted. Would have Japan been so foolish to declare war on the UK & US if Germany was not pushing back the USSR?
Would have Germany invaded the USSR? Recall that Germany invaded the USSR in June 1941 only for its resources when the USA was not in the war. Invading the USSR mean they leaves the western flank open to invasion by the UK & USA.
The first question would Mussolini have declared war on France and Britain? Yes Mussolini had been in power since 1922 and had dreams of restoring the glory that was Rome and to make the Mediterranean Romes Mare Nostrum. To do so meant getting Britain and France out of the lands around the Mediterranean. A good start on becoming the master of the Medirerranean was to add Greece, Malta, Cyprus, Tunesia, Algeria (Mehgreb) and Egypt to the Italian states control (Italy already controled Albania and Libya) . One could also see a nascent Roman Empire move on to securin g The Levant, Morroco , Nubia (Sudan),Palestine and Asia Minor as well as Jugoslavia. This would leave only Spain a Fascist ally and France which was under German control. When France fell so quickly Italy got the green light to add French Savoy to Italy although Mussolini wanted all of Sout France and Marsailles. Italy launched an invasion of Egypt, Jugoslavia, and Greece but suffered humiliating military reverses compelling Germany to divert men, material to beat the British back and secure the Balkans to prevent it from being a back door into Central Europe. Mussolini's failures kept Germany from begining its invasion of the USSR in March or April and kept nearly 500,000 troops, Erwin Rommel and needed equipment from the Russian Front. Imagine Guderian in command of the Northern pincer movement and Rommel the Southern pincer (laying seige to Moscow). This might have put German Panzers in Red Square and the Kremlin in Hitler's hands before the Rains and Snows started in October 1941.
The Second question, The United States and Britain controled virtually all the oil and gas produced in the Middle East, The Americas and SE Asia. Add to that rubber from the British colony in Malaya and the US plantations in West Africa. In the summer of 1940 to punish Japan for taking control of French Indochina also a source of natural rubber and for its continued agression in China the British and the Americans embargoed sales of oil, gas, rubber, steel and other goods of use for military purposes. . To prevent German or Japanese moves on the oil rich Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) British Forces from Australia, India and Malaya occupied this territory and prevented oil from being sent to Japan from the Shell oil finds. By October 1941 Japan was running out of oil and petroleum products needed to operate the IJN (Imperial Japanese Navy) and faced seeing its forces in China, IndoChina and Manchuria cut off from the Japanese homeland. Japan was a in a corner and its attack against the British and Americans was the best option since all the others meant a Japanese surrender and humilating withdrawals from China, SE Asia and Manchuria. It might have also cost the milarists in Japan their political power and maybe their lives.
The Third question From Hitler's point of view this was acting to secure Germany's destiny and necessary to secure German control of Europe and Asia. If Germany had suceeded, an industrial and manpower base dwarfing the the United States would have been available to settle acounts with what remained of the British Empire and the USA if these last Democracies didn't see reason and sue for peace with the German Reich
Why should the US ever have gone to Europe? According to the OP, in many posts, the US wasn't necessary for the war. So, we shouldn't have been there to begin with.
It would still have taken time for the US start building its forces up. I have always wondered ......................what if Japan had attacked the USSR instead of the US after Germany had attacked the USSR ?? Would the US even have gotten in the war at all then ? Ron
Why should the US ever have gone to Europe? According to the OP, in many posts, the US wasn't necessary for the war. So, we shouldn't have been there to begin with.
You could say the same for the UK. Germany had no quarrel with then UK. But war was coming the way of the US and they knew it. This was mentioned in the first posts. This is a "What If". Not if they were in or not. What if the USA was in WW2 in May 1940. What would transpire from this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 383man
It would still have taken time for the US start building its forces up. I have always wondered ......................what if Japan had attacked the USSR instead of the US after Germany had attacked the USSR ?? Would the US even have gotten in the war at all then ? Ron
In May 1940 the USN was substantial as was the air force. The front line fighters were 2nd rate but new planes were on the way and the British could give the USA Spitfires as stop gaps - which they actually did in WW2, about 400-500 of them. The US air bomber force was substantial. There was enough to assist the UK in the desert for sure and secure the southern Med coast. The US troops month by month would be increasing in numbers and mustering in the UK. Germany lost a lot of planes, men and equipment in France in 1940 and were in no fit state to immediately fight after.
Germany could not fully fight and neither could the US/UK. The fact that the US were there and increasing in number in another Phoney War (or lull) after the fall of France was enough to make people think differently.
The US being in WW2 in May 1940 would most probably preclude Japan from the war - or at least fighting the UK and US, they were of course fighting in China.
Okay, but my personal bias is that any good What If needs to take into account the Why Not.
For instance, if the Luftwaffe had concentrated on attacking the Royal Navy instead of bombing London the Germans could have gotten 100,000 men across the English Channel and defeated the British Army which had been compelled to abandon their tanks and artillery at Dunkirk and these had not yet been replaced. The reason they bombed London instead was that Hitler had decided that's how he wanted things done.
Why wasn't the assault rifle given wider use earlier? The first assault rifle was invented by a young British Lt. Fergusson at the time of the American Revolution. With this weapon the British could have easily put down the rebellion in their American colonies. In the 1930s assault rifles were invented in both the United States and the Soviet Union. Finally during World War II the Germans came up with a design. In the first three cases Hidebound Military Tradition conspired to kill the idea. In the fourth case the German generals were quite excited about it but Hitler didn't like it and ordered the thing banned. The German generals, however, gave it the designation "MP-42 (43) (44)" deceptively indicating it was a submachinegun which was a category of weapon Hitler approved. Hitler was in the habit of chatting a bit with heros flown in from the Front to be decorated for some act of valor and asking if there was anything they needed at the Front. So many of them without hesitation would say, "More MP-43s!" that Hitler decided he better find out what an MP-43 was--why, it was that thing he'd ordered banned a couple of years ago! If he hadn't been so deadset against it back then Germany would have won the war. The Russians picked up a few of these on the battlefield and developped the AK-47. Reviewing their experience in Korea the U. S. Military called for a weapon that would accomplish this, this, and that and the result was the M-16. But there was no good reason why it couldn't have happenned sooner other than somebody's stubborn opinion.
If Confederate General Ewell had merely occupied Culp's Hill as Lee had directed him to do or had Lee authorized Longstreet to occupy Little Round Top the South would have rolled up the Union flanks and won the Battle of Gettysburg and probably the war. But Ewell mistook some of his own men for the enemy and feared they would cut him off. In the absense of JEB Stuart's cavalry Lee had no idea what he faced, had seen a unit of Union Signal Corps on the Round Tops and feared there could be more Boys in Blue as well.
If young King Rehoboam had followed the council of the older, more experienced advisors and given the people tax breaks and deregulation the empires of David and Solomon would have continued and Israel would have been recognized in secular history as one of the Great Powers of Antiquity. But instead he listened to those who advised higher taxes and more regulation with the result that 80% of the country seceeded.
What if back in 1978 I had stayed where I was, saved my money, asked a certain girl out, and opened a greenhouse. All of these were things I'd thought about doing and if followed through in ten years I would have had a perfect home (well, close to it) living in the best house in town (I had been desiging that house for several years by then). I would have been making close to twice what everybody else in town was making and would have been among the Big Shots in the area. But I was young and foolish and had not yet thought all things through. Darn that would make the subject of a Good Thread! "If you could live your life over again. . ." Where would I put that? Community Chat?
For instance, if the Luftwaffe had concentrated on attacking the Royal Navy instead of bombing London the Germans could have gotten 100,000 men across the English Channel and defeated the British Army which had been compelled to abandon their tanks and artillery at Dunkirk and these had not yet been replaced. The reason they bombed London instead was that Hitler had decided that's how he wanted things done.
That is total propaganda. The Germans had no navy worth talking about in May 1940. They had aircraft with anti-ship capability - only 6 smallish warships were sunk at Dunkirk. Over Dunkirk the RAF put up a CAP and more German planes were downed than RAF and some French. British industry, the same size as Germanys, was turning out tanks 24/7. The Germans could not knock out the Matilda 2 with their anti-tank weapons. They had no amphibious force. The mustered a collection of concrete barges and Rhine barges (depriving the industrial Rhur of transportation), which had to be towed. The trip across would take 24 hours open to the RAF and the massive RN. A fast frigate would turn out over with its wash. There were few suitable invasion beaches being mainly cliffs. Only one third on the British army went to France with outdated equipment. The factories were re-equipping with the latest equipment. Etc, etc, etc. So this what if is out.
In 1940 the war was not as important to most of the US, it was thought of similar to the European squabbles going on in eastern Europe and Ukraine today. But when Pearl Harbor happened, Roosevelt finally had an issue Americans could rally around and...the rest is history..
I am tempted to agree with you on this. In addition, it is worth noting that, as far as I know, there was some debate in the U.S. about whether or not to declare war on Nazi Germany even after Pearl Harbor occurred. The fact that Hitler declared war on the U.S. might have actually been a great benefit to the Allied war effort since it made (much) more Americans supportive of going to war against Nazi Germany as well as Japan.
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Concider that the USA joins the war, Germany never invades the USSR and put her entire war effort towards GB and the USA.
Navy no contest, Allies control the seas, GB has no threat of invasion. However with the German war machine now facing west instead of east the air war becomes more deadly, and a D-Day style invasion becomes an impossibility. Perhaps with the Luftwaffe not busy on the eastern front, neither side can bomb targets without massive loses, and a negotiated truce would happen.
Meanwhile America still gets attacked by the Japanese and the Pacific goes about like it did
It would still have taken time for the US start building its forces up. I have always wondered ......................what if Japan had attacked the USSR instead of the US after Germany had attacked the USSR ?? Would the US even have gotten in the war at all then ? Ron
In 1937, Japan had a military campaign with the Russians and got the equivalent of a bloody nose for its trouble. Japanese forces tried to take control of a Soviet satellite called Mongolia. Event thought Stalin was purging the Red Army of disloyal officers and what were called Bonapartists (i.e. Marshal Tuchkachevskii) some good officers remainded and one of them was a young General named Georgi Zhukov who commanded the Red Army forces in the Soviet Far East. The Japanese force sent into Mongolia was decimated and the Japanese sued for peace with Russia and signed a nonaggression pact with the USSR and the USSR agreed not to allow British or American Forces to use Soviet territory to attack Japan. This explains why the USA could never start air attacks against Japan from the Soviet Far East and the few Americans who strayed into Soviet territory were impounded until they could be sent back to the USA (The Americans were lucky if we were allies against Germany Stalin might have put them in a labor camp and they would have spent the duration of the war in Soviet custady.) and their equipment aircraft were confiscated by the Russians. The Russians got several working examples of advanced long range bombers like the B-29 which Stalin ordered Andrei Tupolev to copy and produce for the USSR as the Tu-4 long range bomber which carried the Soviet atomic bombs after 1949. This also expains why Jimmy Doolittle had to fly his B-25s to China and ditch the planes over Japanese controlled China and then hope freindly Chinese would get them to safety. If he could have gone to the USSR which was within the planes range, his p;anes could have landed been refueled and then flown to Alaska with one or two pit stops along the way courtesy of the Red Army Air Forces (This route was used after we started Lend Lease to the Soviets and flew planes like the P-39 (an obsolescent pursit plane that Russian pilots actually liked flying and held up well in Russian conditions) and C-47s to put into Soviet hands.
The fact Japan stayed out of the war with Russia may have contributed to the ultimate Soviet victory as the events of Dec 1941 at the gates to Moscow show. For Stalin was free to bring Zhukov and his Siberians west to drive the Germans back from the suburban edge of Moscow in a Winter Offensive.
Near the end of the war (spring of 1945) with the non-agression pact holding the Japanese tried to get Soviet help in getting a armistice with the British and Americans and forstall a invasion of Japan. The Japanese didn't know that Stalin and Roosevelt at Yalta had agreed to a Russian entry into the war with Japan four months after the end of hostilities in Europe. Russian Forces were to deal with the Kwantung Army ofJapan in Manchuria and Korea. Exactly 4 months to the day the war ended in Europe on May 8, 1945, The USSR attacked Japanese forces on Sept 8, 1945. The Soviets occupied Manchuria and N. Korea.
Concider that the USA joins the war, Germany never invades the USSR and put her entire war effort towards GB and the USA.
Navy no contest, Allies control the seas, GB has no threat of invasion. However with the German war machine now facing west instead of east the air war becomes more deadly, and a D-Day style invasion becomes an impossibility. Perhaps with the Luftwaffe not busy on the eastern front, neither side can bomb targets without massive loses, and a negotiated truce would happen.
Meanwhile America still gets attacked by the Japanese and the Pacific goes about like it did
There are several problems with this scenario. First, it assumes that if Germany never invades the USSR, the USSR never invades Germany. Second, it ignores Hitler's ultimate goal of destroying the USSR for "Lebensraum" in western Russia. Third, it guarantees that the war would be fought on European/German soil rather than abroad since Germany was incapable of launching a cross channel or overseas invasion.
People forget that Stalin was an aggressor just like Hitler. Stalin invaded Poland in 1939, the Baltic States, and Finland. Stalin was rapidly building up his war industry in 1939-1941. The Germans themselves calculated that the Soviets would outproduce them exponentially each year that passed. So by the Germans going to war with the west and ignoring the Soviets, this would have delayed the invasion of the USSR and allowed Stalin more time to build up his military undisturbed. Soviet production would have overtaken German production to the point where the Germans could no longer keep pace.
Even if I indulge your scenario and all of its assumptions, I don't see a negotiated truce being the outcome. I think the U.S. and U.K. would press on. The U.S. would be able to bomb Germany to rubble and knock the Luftwaffe out eventually. Maybe not in 1941-42, but from 1943 onwards, the western Allies could produce vastly more airplanes than Germany. We also would have developed nukes.
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