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Four countries in the Arab Spring threw out their governments (in the case of Egypt, twice). Do most people think the new govts are any better than the old?
The Syrian Civil War started in the Arab Spring causing a huge death toll. I'm sure the Syrians wish they could "Star Trek" their way back to the past.
Aren't Islamofascist people (as opposed to secular Muslim people) more powerful than before? If so, you could say it's like Iraq starting in 2003. We removed a secular Muslim dictator, and this unleashed all the warring cultures there, including Islamic terrorists who started moving into Iraq. I think Tunisia, where the Arab Spring started, may have had a happy period, but it's not lasting.
Well, none of this was helped by a feckless American president. The United States had an opportunity to support the more moderate faction in Syria but didn't. The United States ignored the signs of the impending disaster in Libya and did nothing. The United States freed the current leader of Isis. And on and on. It's really hard to believe that anyone could have made George W. Bush look competent, but Obama has somehow managed.
At the risk of this getting political - the secular middle east countries caused as much trouble as the radical fundamentalists. PLO was secular and pretty much defined the new realty of terrorism. Saddam Hussean was secular (using religion only when it suited him) but caused 2 regional wars, as well as massacring his own people, during his time in power. Stability is the key in the middle east. And it seems that, sadly, except for Israel, the ruthless dictatorship's work the best. And even that is a problem because you have competing regional powers (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, etc), proxy wars (Gaza and Iran), and then throw in the crazy dictator here and there that want to overreach and expand (Kaddafi and Saddam).
The Middle East is like a slippery slope where nothing seems to work.
Leaving it alone and/or appeasment? - doesn't work, as the last 6 years of Obama foreign policy shows.
Military action and nation building? - doesn't work, as the previous administrations foreign policy shows.
I truly have no solutions here.
1. No one ever won with, or managed, religious zealots.
2. Anyone who thinks they know better, rips what he planted.
3. Toss in Russia. Any attempts from West to undermine the country never won.
4. Do not forget old wisdom. You catch bigger fish in murky waters. No one is really interested in stability in that area to start with, not the real masters of this world. Instability=tumults and riots=wars=good business. Financial elite profits one way or another.
You can't force "democracy" (as imagined by the "pop wisdom") upon a society that isn't ready for true parliamentary pluralism. You can only offer aid to the somewhat-better-enlightened minority trapped within such states who understand .. and my guess is that most of them will try to emigrate.
The unfortunate fact is that most of the population of the Middle East remains under the heel of a handful of despots, and seeks solace from a fanatical religion trapped in the Sixth Century; and I can see no easy way out. There is no "financial elite"; merely one built upon power which sells its assets and influence to the highest bidder not caught in the trap.
The problem here that so many people overlook is legitimacy. Those regimes were in place by force and force alone. It shouldn't have been a surprise that the Arab street rose up, but, yet again, it was for US intelligence, it seems. We had an opportunity to maybe manage the transition, but before long the Islamic groups took charge of the movements.
I don't believe that most Arabs support super-Islamic government anymore than Americans support super-Christian government. But when those guys have the guns, control the schools and local hospitals, and seem to be everywhere, you play along.
The key to having stability is having legitimacy. For example, if Maliki hadn't tried to be a Saddam-style despot and destroy Sunni culture, there probably wouldn't be such a well-armed and well-supported ISIS movement wreaking havoc on Iraqi soil. Despite all the other challenges Iraq faced, had they actually embraced multi-party democracy and not tried to oppress a major minority, things would have gone a bit more smoothly. Which brings us back to legitimacy. If the government had legitimacy it could have called on the goodwill of the population to fight ISIS, or the military wouldn't have collapsed that first week, and average Sunni's wouldn't have jumped on board with ISIS. I'm still convinced their support of ISIS is lukewarm at best, and they're just hedging their bets for survival.
It's hard to tell if the problem is partisan politics or religion, as it is so often intertwined in the Middle East. But in the case of ISIS, the best thing the government can do is actually allow Sunnis to take their rightful place as part of the government and stop trying to screw them. Give the average Sunni somewhere to go. But unfortunately, too much power can be had by leading Shi'ite and Sunni militias against each other. Such is tribalism.
EDIT: Also, the West is so quick to send military aid and training that we forget to train politicians. We count on an already educated class who are usually expatriates to somehow know how to put together a working government. First should come democratic principles and legitimate government, then the military training.
You can't force "democracy" (as imagined by the "pop wisdom") upon a society that isn't ready for true parliamentary pluralism. You can only offer aid to the somewhat-better-enlightened minority trapped within such states who understand .. and my guess is that most of them will try to emigrate.
The unfortunate fact is that most of the population of the Middle East remains under the heel of a handful of despots, and seeks solace from a fanatical religion trapped in the Sixth Century; and I can see no easy way out. There is no "financial elite"; merely one built upon power which sells its assets and influence to the highest bidder not caught in the trap.
Pretty much the only solution is a rather brutal one: Kick out the props from underneath the one thing that's keeping the Arab world's economy afloat. That means continuing to develop domestic fossil fuels outside of the Arab world.
The United States has already become an energy exporter. If Europe and the developing countries of Asia could do the same thing, the petrodollars dry up. For either the Arabs stop charging extortionate prices for oil or their buyers dry up entirely. Serves them right for being the festering sore of the world's economic and geopolitical scene for so many decades.
Before oil was exploited in the Middle East, the place was a basket case. It says a great deal that today, even with all that oil wealth, the Arab world generates fewer international patents than Subsaharan Africa. Instead, for sixty years, they've taken all this money sluicing in and squandered it on terrorists, unoccupied office towers, palm-shaped islands, race horses, and a host of other things rather than building stable, progressive societies. I think that's what really outrages the Arabs about the Israelis -- Israel has built a thriving modern economy out of absolutely nothing. Without that oil capital from the developed world, it will instead be a reset, which means they'll be back to herding goats in a generation. Then all we have to do is keep them from emigrating and keep the Suez Canal secure.
Pretty much the only solution is a rather brutal one: Kick out the props from underneath the one thing that's keeping the Arab world's economy afloat. That means continuing to develop domestic fossil fuels outside of the Arab world.
The United States has already become a energy exporter. If Europe and the developing countries of Asia could do the same thing, the petrodollars dry up. For either the Arabs stop charging extortionate prices for oil or their buyers dry up entirely.
Before oil was exploited in the Middle East, the place was a basket case. It says a great deal that today, even with all that oil wealth, the Arab world generates fewer international patents than Subsaharan Africa. Instead, for sixty years, they've taking all this money sluicing in and squandered it on terrorists, unoccupied office towers and a host of other things rather than building stable, progressive societies. I think that's what really outrages the Arabs about the Israelis -- they've built a thriving modern economy out of absolutely nothing. Without that oil capital from the developed world, it will instead be a reset, which means they'll be back to herding goats in a generation. Then all we have to do is keep them from emigrating and keep the Suez Canal secure.
Agreed, but the environmental fantasy movement and its Leftist allies would throw a tantrum.
I don't think politics can be avoided with this thread and it's current events, not history. I suggest this be moved to the Politics Forum where a lot more people will be inclined to comment on it.
That part of the world was always most content, orderly, and understandable when the strongmen or dictators were in power. Yes, there are always a few who scream "Help" and we always seem to think they are asking for a chance at democracy rather than just their turn to kill and murder their neighbors. If there was no oil in the middle east, no one would care. Instead of getting tangled up there, Governments around the world should be spending every spare cent for the development of affordable alternative energy, with the goal of finally letting all the fanatics and zealots in the middle east fight each other down to the last knife and rock.
Then peace will finally rule the land....
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