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I have my own theories about what would have happened if the South had won the Civil War. What do you think would have happened? I will give my input a little later. This is just to get things started.
The South might have had the "pride" or "satisfaction" of winning the war, but it would have languished economically, since it had less heavy industry and would have remained mostly agrarian -- supplying European powers with raw material (principally cotton) but having to compete with other sources like India and Egypt. In addition, the anti-slavery movement had considerable influence in Europe, so external political pressures might eventually have emerged. At some point, possibly as late as 1900, slavery would have died out as a result of its own inefficiency and short-sight, but that would have likely exacerbated the economic pressures.
The North, on the other hand, would have emerged relatively unscathed and with an intact industrial base. Whether relations between the North and the European Power would have solidified or deteriorated is something on which I don't have the background to speculate, but one bit of food for thought would be relations with Canada.
Around the turn of the Twentieth Century, a movement was afoot in the three Canadian prairie provinces to leave the Canadian union and join the United States; British Columbia also had problems identifying with a Canada centered n two large Eastern provinces with a language disparity.
So it's possible that a Southern victory might have set afoot a trend toward further Balkanization in all of North America, although the trend would likely have reversed itself after the European conflicts which led to the two-act World War were resolved.
They would have lost the peace. Slavery would not have survived much longer.
This, largely because of what 2nd trick op wrote.
Either that, or Great Britain might have zoomed in with its military to take over the decimated and pitifully over-extended CSA. "Out of the frying pan..." as the saying goes.
Harry Turtledove covered this in excruciating detail.
He came to LASFS (Los Angeles Science Fantasy Society, oldest science fiction club in the world, of which he is a member) one night and talked about writing the book. It is amazing how careful he was about detail. He had one incidental scene where a character was at work, and then discovered it was Jefferson Davis's birthday, which was a holiday. He recalled the chaper he'd already sent to the publisher to change it. Alternate history is fascinating, but has to also be convincing. Except for the South African's from the future upping the South's arms over the North, it was indeed assembled in exacting detail.
I think his take is very right on. If there had been two smaller nations instead of one bigger and more powerful one, the influence of both would be diluted. The European wars would have been fought as world wars, but in the former United States as well. Without any modifying influence, the South would have hunkered down and resisted change even more than before.
I think those like Lincoln knew the war *had* to be won because divided both states would be open the use of what was still powerful European empires. He came to feel that slavery was a priority, but never forgot that divided both sides would be weakened and that must not be.
It would have ruined the "Who is buried in Grant's Tomb?" gag. If the South had won Grant would have wound up in an ordinary grave somewhere.
No "Birth of A Nation", no "Gone With The Wind", no "Lost Cause" literature, no "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down."
Someone else would have his or her face on the penny and the five dollar bill. The Lincoln Hayes character on the "Mod Squad" would probably have been given a different name.
The Gettysburg Address would be one more obscure speech from the past which no one remembers.
The South might have had the "pride" or "satisfaction" of winning the war, but it would have languished economically, since it had less heavy industry and would have remained mostly agrarian -- supplying European powers with raw material (principally cotton) but having to compete with other sources like India and Egypt. In addition, the anti-slavery movement had considerable influence in Europe, so external political pressures might eventually have emerged. At some point, possibly as late as 1900, slavery would have died out as a result of its own inefficiency and short-sight, but that would have likely exacerbated the economic pressures.
The North, on the other hand, would have emerged relatively unscathed and with an intact industrial base. Whether relations between the North and the European Power would have solidified or deteriorated is something on which I don't have the background to speculate, but one bit of food for thought would be relations with Canada.
Around the turn of the Twentieth Century, a movement was afoot in the three Canadian prairie provinces to leave the Canadian union and join the United States; British Columbia also had problems identifying with a Canada centered n two large Eastern provinces with a language disparity.
So it's possible that a Southern victory might have set afoot a trend toward further Balkanization in all of North America, although the trend would likely have reversed itself after the European conflicts which led to the two-act World War were resolved.
It is important to note that one of the major reasons that the South wanted to secede was to keep slavery. There was a fear that if Lincoln were elected, he would abolish slavery. To say that slavery would have continued on until 1900, I would not be surprised. I have argued before that the South would not have let it go until around that time.
I never knew that the western provinces in Canada wanted to become part of the USA.
One thing to consider is this. The Southern states took pride in being an agrarian region. The first slab of steel didn't come out of the furnaces of Birmingham until the late 1880s. If the South had one, my theory is that the industrial revolution may not have come until sometime later in the 20th century.
One thing to consider is this. The Southern states took pride in being an agrarian region. The first slab of steel didn't come out of the furnaces of Birmingham until the late 1880s. If the South had one, my theory is that the industrial revolution may not have come until sometime later in the 20th century.
While I enjoyed your post and agree with many points, I have to point out that there was an established iron (not steel) industry within the South well before the Civil War -- most of it in Virginia between Richmond, Midlothian and Petersburg. Iron furnaces evolved from the charcoal-fed stone structures of Colonial times to something not far removed from the classic "blast furnace" by the 1880's, but the dividing line between the extraction of "pig iron" and the process of steel production is somewhat blurry.
The Tennessee Coal and Iron company got its start in the early 1850's, and much of its activity was actually conducted in and around Birmingham, where all the raw materials were readily available. "TC&I" was merged into U S Steel as a consequence of the "rich man's panic" of 1907.
If you're ever in Birmingham, a visit to the Sloss blast furnaces (on 32nd Street near the railroad yards which parallel First Avenue) is well worth the time
Political disarray and competition from foreign cotton markets would have plagued the Confederacy. Dissatisfaction would have grown, and state governments would have voted for readmission into the Union. It would have started with the Upper South (Arkansas, Tennessee, etc) and ended in the Deep South.
A couple of states, perhaps Mississippi and South Carolina, would have remained nominally independent even to the present day, but they would have signed free trade agreements with the United States and fallen under the American security umbrella.
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