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The general consensus is that WWII is a consequence of WWI.
If there had been no WWI, we don't know what would have happened. History would have gone down a different path. But the pressures were there. The Austro-Hungarian empire was a tinderbox. Russia was a tinderbox.
Japan, which had minimal role in WWI, was hungry for expansion and international recognition as a major military power. Even if the Europeans had managed to settle their issues peacefully without resorting to a large continental war, odds are still likely the Japanese would have done something at some point.
In that Nazism was a reaction to the loss in WW I, it does not seem especially likely that the absence of the first world war would have produced the same events.
And of course if we want to employ the semantic level, how could there be a WW II unless there had been a WW I? Even if there had been a war starting in 1939, it would have been WW I.
World Wars would have happened. The leaders, tyrants, some of the timing, and the focus would have changed. The end results would pretty much be the same.
The assassination of an Austrian archduke and various treaties between the Russians/French/Germans/British had nothing to do with WWI?
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Originally Posted by John-UK
The depression of the late 1800s brought about the grab for Africa and hence WW1. The 1929 depression brought about WW2. All to do with economics.
No, it's not all to do with economics. It's all to do with nationalism, certainly.
By the way, which "depression of the late 1800s" are you referring to? There were certainly the periodic panics and recessions but nothing that I've heard described as a "depression." The period of 1860-1914 was a remarkably affluent and economically buoyant one for Europe. One can certainly point to various exceptions but on the whole it was a rich time.
Instead we would of had the great Britannia war (1930-39) where the world (lead by the USA, Japan and Germany under Kaiser Hindenburg) finally crushed the evil and corrupt British empire, lead by the evil Queen Wallis, remembered by history as the "Snow witch" among other epitaphs.
During the war, virtually every city on the East coast of the USA was leveled by Royal Navy bombardment, Canada became part of America, India and Australia became a colony of Japan and 250 million+ people died.
England itself was totally desolated and all it's people killed or deported to the English refugee prison island of Pitcairn. Today the British isles are an uninhabited nature reserve. Nobody eats fish and chips or drinks tea... also there is no Rock and Roll and without pompous English A-holes to constantly demean contestants, reality TV never took off.
Unfortunately Fuhrer Merkel of the German Empire seems to be gearing up for something big, always holding huge rallies involving hundreds of thousands of people with marching, chanting and large bonfires and annexing Austria while the impoverished American Union suffers another famine and teeters on the brink of collapse.
All of the conflicts that led to WW2 were pretty much set in WW1 - German Revanchism, Russian revolution, the breakup of Austrian and Russian empires with millions of people from different ethnic groups stuck on the wrong side of the border, the bleeding of France in WW1 that led to less than enthusiastic performance in WW2.
Neither, in my opinion, was WW1 a done deal. A lot hinged on the personality of the Kaiser, who unfortunately was just a wrong man at the right time. Russia was also in a deep leadership crisis, although with them this seems to have been a chronic problem. But from what I read, it seems that Kaiser was instrumental in actually forcing the war to happen, although he isn't the only responsible party, by far.
I think without WW1, there would be a much more gradual, perhaps peaceful breakup of Austro-Hungary, maybe even some sort of a loose federation with Slavic lands and Hungary still part of the country; Russia would eventually get a Constitution but would remain rather conservative; the Old World Order would persist for much longer, even if in a modified form (something like Great Britain ca. 1900); the world overall would be much more conservative, religious, and with many more remnants of the feudal system (titled nobility having more wealth and somewhat elevated position). No Holocaust and no Israel, probably no Finland, with Jews still a large persecuted minority in most European countries. Likely no Poland or Czechoslovakia, the latter may have become an autonomy within Austrian "Federation" but Poland desperately needed a massive war in which all three countries holding parts of it's territory collapsed.
It would be unlikely for such powers and grievances to coalesce into one conflict.
Japan would have focused more and nibbling away at China with the European powers still at full strength.
The Ottoman Empire would rock along with the Young Turks trying to reform and rebuild it, but an Arabian uprising gets out of hand emboldening Greece to invade which is a runaway success until Russia seizes the opportunity to finally occupy Tsargrad. Fighting against the Greeks and Turks bogs Russia down, but after a bloody few years Russian numbers win out. Nicholas is crowned Byzantine Emperor in Hagia Sofia and moves his court to a new dual palace on the European and Asian sides of the Dardanelles. His borders stretch from Egypt to the Pacific and from the Arctic Ocean to the Indian, and Russia has established itself as the foremost Orthodox nation in history.
Uprisings would have occurred in Russia, but the Czar fails to respond in his blissful victory bask in his new capital. Eventually, Japan would invade during one of these as Russian attention is diverted elsewhere. They would take a good deal of the Russian Far East before their own overstretched supply lines and General Winter slow them down. Fearful of someone competent ruling the vast Russian Empire the British and French threaten to enter the war on Russia's side if Japan doesn't withdraw to the east. The war ends with Japan still gaining a sizable chunk of territory.
Franz Ferdinand would eventually ascend the throne and stage some false flag operation that would allow him to break Hungary under the pretense of restoring order, chasing rebels, or some such. He probably still wouldn't be able to federalize his empire and kingdom, but at least Vienna could rule without asking Budapest's permission.
Germany would see a rise in political unrest. An aging Wilhelm would invade the Dutch holdings in Asia in an effort to unite folks in a nationalistic crusade. It would work to some extent, and Dutch resistance in Europe would allow him add the Netherlands as another Reichsland. The fighting would encourage an uprising in Alsace-Lorraine, but this would only succeed in allowing Germany to clear the table of any Alsatian resistance. Wilhelm will die a happy man having legitimately earned the title Kaiser.
Obviously, it wouldn't be called WWII. That aside...
WW II could have been avoided by a fair and equitable treaty.
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Originally Posted by WScott84
Would Hitler have risen to power,...
No, since a fair and equitable treaty would have barred the conditions that led to the rise of National Socialism.
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Originally Posted by WScott84
... would Japan have risen to power,...
Yes.
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Originally Posted by WScott84
.... would either of them cared about the USA if WWI hadn't happened?
Japan didn't give a damn about the USA.
The US was busy enslaving the peoples of the Pacific Rim, and Japan refused to lay down and be colonized by the US. Not only did Japan refuse to be colonized, Japan started colonizing and competing against the US.
That's what led to the oil embargo against Japan (which is an Act of War).
Japan responded to this Act of War by attacking the US military facilities at Pearl Harbor in the US colony known as Hawaii.
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