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Originally Posted by SunGrins
I've seen three or four recent reports or articles that claim to find the key to historical events in environmental factors. Today it was one explaining why the Mongols stopped their advance into Europe -- based on tree ring analysis showing a wet weather pattern in the 1240s. There have been others.
The Mongols were engaged in a power/succession crisis as I recall and turned their attention elsewhere....rain or not. Granted, Russian winters tend to mess up invasion plans. Long droughts cause people to pick up and move to better places. Over use of agricultural resources has been shown to reduce productivity and trigger famine or civil instability or collapse. These things happen.
Are we putting too much emphasis on environmental or weather changes as a causal factor for particular historical events? We are faced with the threat of climate change and scientists are predicting sea level rises and the warming and desertification of some areas. It seems that sometimes a change in direction might just be a change in direction. The whim of a ruler might be all that matters in some cases. Somebody dreams about an eagle eating a snake sitting on a cactus and, voilà , we get what becomes Mexico City. There are commercial or economic factors.
The medieval period was somewhat warmer than the years that followed. That period is sometimes called the Little Ice Age. Colder winters might stop some diseases from spreading. Warmer weather might have favored agriculture in some areas. Greenland settlements were established during the warmer years and abandoned when the climate turned colder. Did colder weather influence the move from cottage crafts and guilds in Europe to an industrial society or was it better methods of transportation of goods and resources?
Anyway, I'm wondering if the concern over our own climate change prospects might be influencing some reinterpretation of singular historical events (rather than long-term historical trends).
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I read the article on climate change affecting the Mongol invasion of Europe. I think the tree ring data is pretty solid, so the conclusion that the environment affected the Mongol plans seems reasonable in this case.
However, this is definitely not the only time that environmental factors affected military events. Floods, storms and droughts have all had major effects on the outcomes of past military campaigns.
For example, the Ottoman invasion of Europe was stopped at the siege of Vienna in large part because unusually heavy rains prevented the Ottomans from bringing along their heavy cannons.
Storms battered the Mongol fleet and helped defeat their invasion of Japan.
A simple heavy fog helped George Washington successfully retreat from Long Island. His force should have been crushed and the revolution possibly ended there, but a very heavy fog allowed almost all of his army to be ferried away to safety.
I do find it interesting that scientists can now look beyond these fairly clear examples of the effects of single weather events on history and look at broader environmental effects.
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