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A point by Churchill, "The French Government had at their own suggestion solemnly bound themselves with us not to make a separate peace." They reneged on that deal making a peace that split up their own country. He then goes on, "France would have held her place as a nation in the counsels of the Allies and at the conference table of the victors." The Americans were cold on the French after what they did and then having to deal with Anglo-Saxon-phobe De Gaulle. The US never recognised him as the head of France in WW2. On Churchill's insistence France was put "at the conference table of the victors."
That's not an accurate statement. Darlan had already defected to the Allies and, in a confused situation, the remaining Vichy admirals were in favor of either sending the ships to North Africa or scuttling them to prevent capture and use by the Germans. In the terms of the Armistice the French vessels were to have empty tanks, but in most of the ships, they had secretly kept enough fuel for a sail across the Mediterranean and into Allied hands. Crews, initially hostile to Allied forces and De Gualle, had changed their minds with Darlan's defection and were already lobbying to sail.
The problem was that the crews of the vessels were required by the treaty to man coastal defenses rather than be on board their ships, making it difficult to muster crews in a hurry. Had the German invasion of Toulon happened a few days later, it's almost a stone cold cinch that the bulk of the French fleet would have sailed rather than be scuttled at the dock. As it was, a considerable percentage of the French submarine fleet and one surface vessel managed to escape to Africa.
The British, along with a little aid from the Norwegians, had largely wiped out the German surface fleet in Norway in 1940. To have the Germans acquire a substantial surface fleet overnight could not have been tolerated. Combined with the Italian fleet the Axis would have had a powerful combined navy. All through WW2 Britain controlled the eastern Med. With the French fleet in German hands that may not have been the case.
One of the reasons Franco never entered into the war was that he feared Spanish islands and territory in North Africa & Spain would be occupied by British forces. A large Axis navy may have made him change his mind as it would give Spain protection. Then if the Axis made a concerted effort to seize Gibraltar and succeeded, the Med may have been an Axis lake with free movement of this combined Axis fleet into the Atlantic. Then Hitler's Mesopotamia plan may have been a reality.
I can't agree re: the surface fleet being "largely wiped out." Yes, a large percentage of the KM destroyer arm was sunk at Narvik, and, I believe, two cruisers in Oslo harbor, but no capital ships were lost.
Admittedly, the German surface fleet paled in comparison to the Royal Navy, and many other navies, but they still had the Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Admiral Hipper, Admiral Scheer, Lutzow and soon would have the Prinz Eugen, Bismarck and Tirpitz in service.
This is all off the top of my head, some details may be off a bit
This had a HUGE impact on morale and sentiment across the globe. By this action it became clear to anyone that England would do whatever it takes to defend itself and not sue for terms with Germany. This also influenced the US on supplying the UK with lend/lease with whatever they needed / wanted.
Saying the French military might have failed in its mission to defend France and its equipment be taken by the enemy -is like saying the sun might possibly rise in the east tomarrow
Saying the French military might have failed in its mission to defend France and its equipment be taken by the enemy -is like saying the sun might possibly rise in the east tomarrow
While also including -to be fair- it was mostly a complete and utter leadership failure, not one of the fighting men in the French Army.
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