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Old 10-24-2019, 03:20 PM
 
10,497 posts, read 6,963,571 times
Reputation: 32325

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Well, what did you expect?
When was the last time you saw say a movie, promoting large families - and happy?

When was the last time you saw a movie, promoting healthy man/woman relationship?
When was last time you saw TV news showing how happy alrge families are or, praising a woman that had several children?
When was the last time government increased maternity leaves and secured jobs for them, along with financial incentives? I came form 3 years paid for leave and job secured).
You can continue this list, as I do not watch news or TV or read books or papers or partake in any social media.
Little do I see is what I mentioned and little do I see is promotion of exactly the opposite.

You always rip what you sawed.

I think it's more a matter of women taking control of their own reproductive rights.
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Old 10-24-2019, 03:41 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,317 posts, read 14,225,541 times
Reputation: 10019
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2x3x29x41 View Post

Thus, a lower fertility rate - much lower, really - is required to maintain a population ... we're not merely maintained - globally, we're growing ...
No need to put it parenthetically. In fact, it should be bolded.

At base 10, a 10x fertility rate means 100.

At base 1000, a 1.7x fertility rate means 1700.

The increase in base to 1000 may be an underestimate or overestimate over a 40,000 year or a 10,000 year period, but the analogy conveys the message.


Either way, statistics, like opinions, are funny things.

Let's celebrate!
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
23,132 posts, read 28,869,286 times
Reputation: 32478
I read, once, that France was trying to increase its fertility rate by offering free day care, and free train tickets, and I think it's been mildly successful.

When China made it possible for women to have a 2nd child, and they polled the women over there if they'd consider having a 2nd child, 70% said No Way Jose!

When Iran's fertility rate dropped to 1.8, the leader has since banned vasectomies.

The only scare to all this is if there were another worldwide Plague, and would there be enough technicians around to maintain our infrastructure, like nuclear power plants and even people to make repairs to our homes and cars.
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:34 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,317 posts, read 14,225,541 times
Reputation: 10019
Quote:
Originally Posted by tijlover View Post

The only scare to all this is if there were another worldwide Plague, and would there be enough technicians around to maintain our infrastructure, like nuclear power plants and even people to make repairs to our homes and cars.
Ask the western Romans around the year 400, taking the world "plague" loosely. Or about the years 165-180, when there was an actual plague. Or the year 541-542.

There have been reversals in just human history at least several times over the past 11,000-40,000 years, not just the plague of 1348, and not only due to infectious disease.

Statistically, then, there is indeed a real risk of a dearth of engineers and technicians to maintain infrastructure at some point going forward.

Hopefully later than sooner.

Moreover, regardless of humans, Earth has its own ways of shaking off excess fleas from its surface for about four billion years now.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c


Good Luck!
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:35 PM
 
6,503 posts, read 3,402,207 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2x3x29x41 View Post
I'm sure there are economic and lifestyle reasons for this, but my story is a little different.

After "not not trying" for 2 years my wife and I decided to dig into the reasons why nothing had happened. Each of us has perfectly healthy desire but underlying medical reasons why each of us, even with a hypothetical spouse in optimal health, would not be able to reproduce. We've accepted it and don't feel we are lacking anything having just each other.

I simply think the same advances in medicine that keep more people alive, and for longer, have a side effect of a higher number of that group experiencing some sort of health issue directly or indirectly impacting fertility. Higher, at least, than those alive today solely by the grace of life saving medicine.
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Old 10-24-2019, 05:57 PM
 
4,985 posts, read 3,932,232 times
Reputation: 10145
"My guess is this is a First in History! How about you?"

my guesses:
1. not a First. lots of History out there.
2. first-world parents do not need children for later in life care.
3. all other world parents decided against the financial drain of descendants.
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Old 10-24-2019, 06:08 PM
 
Location: North America
4,430 posts, read 2,677,385 times
Reputation: 19315
Quote:
Originally Posted by turkeydance View Post
"My guess is this is a First in History! How about you?"

my guesses:
1. not a First. lots of History out there.
2. first-world parents do not need children for later in life care.
3. all other world parents decided against the financial drain of descendants.
There's about 5000 years worth of history out there - everything before that is prehistory. So, too, is a lot of came after, as history (defined as recorded events) began later where means of recorded (ie, writing) did not appear until more recently.

And it is very clear that the fertility rate over the last five millennia has been well above what it is today, given the consistent increase in global population over that time.

For that matter, it is statistically unlikely that the global fertility rate has ever been below what it is now for any length of time at all, because in prehistoric times the child mortality rate would have been so high that the replacement fertility rate would have had to have been much higher than now.
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Old 10-24-2019, 06:47 PM
 
Location: moved
13,587 posts, read 9,618,420 times
Reputation: 23343
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
... Want a taste about what's about to happen? Look at Japan. Their population is projected to decline by one-third by 2060. And the effects will be felt long before then as the working-age population, which will drop by 35% during the same time. This has had a tremendous impact on Japan's economy, with GDP going from 6% growth to decline in a generation.

The same thing, only worse, will happen to China. And I think the results there will be far uglier. Remember the 80s when everybody thought Japan was going to be the next colossus astride the globe? People think that about China today. Yet China was already hit peak working population in 2014-15 and is now seeing that number decline. There's a maxim among China hands that the country will get old before it gets rich. That explains the country's almost frantic economic development efforts and Xi's aggressiveness in foreign policy. ...
There's a straightforward solution to this: immigration. Massive, transnational immigration. Move 100M young people from sub-Saharan Africa to China, and watch them reproduce. Move 100M elderly Chinese people to sub-Saharan Africa, where they can enjoy a warm and lush climate in their declining years, while receiving care from locals who are eager to work.

Overpopulation in Bangladesh? Aging and declining population in Japan? Move tens of Millions to Japan.

We need to move beyond the very concept of nation-state, or homogeneous national population. Move people globally, to where they're needed, to where they can effect the most good. Then the world-economy can thrive, despite aging or plateauing.
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Old 10-24-2019, 07:33 PM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
23,132 posts, read 28,869,286 times
Reputation: 32478
I read in an Economist magazine, featuring Japan, where there's just 1.2 applicants per job. How would you like to open up a business over there?

Applicant: the last place I applied for a job, the boss would only let me take an hour nap in the afternoon, after my half-hour lunch, and if you'll let me take a 2 hour nap after lunch, you're mine!

Employer: You're hired!

I believe I read one time, that sans immigrants in this country, the fertility rate would be around 1.6 or 1.7, slightly higher than countries in Europe.
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Old 10-25-2019, 07:10 AM
 
10,497 posts, read 6,963,571 times
Reputation: 32325
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
There's a straightforward solution to this: immigration. Massive, transnational immigration. Move 100M young people from sub-Saharan Africa to China, and watch them reproduce. Move 100M elderly Chinese people to sub-Saharan Africa, where they can enjoy a warm and lush climate in their declining years, while receiving care from locals who are eager to work.

Overpopulation in Bangladesh? Aging and declining population in Japan? Move tens of Millions to Japan.

We need to move beyond the very concept of nation-state, or homogeneous national population. Move people globally, to where they're needed, to where they can effect the most good. Then the world-economy can thrive, despite aging or plateauing.

That is a solution, if a blue-sky one. In truth, the cultural barriers are so profound that it's far easier said than done.
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