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Although there is no specific mention of what materials maybe in short supply- I find this whole "idea" somewhat delusional and bass ackwards!
Over the years I have dealt with my fair share of shortages, Insulation, Drywall, Brick, and concrete (portland to be specific). And in one way or another everyone made it through- mostly by substitution.
Why I find this so delusional is the fact that more than half of the workforce has left the industry. Which means, regardless of a material shortage who the Hell is going to be there to install it? And we had a shortage of skilled labor to begin with.
With the collapse of the housing industry and it's peeked return, I truly believe the "shortage" will be skilled labor and not materials.
Gnaw on that 2X4 for awhile.
Although there is no specific mention of what materials maybe in short supply- I find this whole "idea" somewhat delusional and bass ackwards!
Over the years I have dealt with my fair share of shortages, Insulation, Drywall, Brick, and concrete (portland to be specific). And in one way or another everyone made it through- mostly by substitution.
Why I find this so delusional is the fact that more than half of the workforce has left the industry. Which means, regardless of a material shortage who the Hell is going to be there to install it? And we had a shortage of skilled labor to begin with.
With the collapse of the housing industry and it's peeked return, I truly believe the "shortage" will be skilled labor and not materials.
Gnaw on that 2X4 for awhile.
I do see a shortage in materials coming as well, we went from a massive & record-setting boom, to volumes below anything we've seen since the 1960's. I remember when Katrina caused a drywall shortage & seeing reports at the time that they were building new drywall plants to keep up, though I'm sure the older plants were mothballed & quite possibly scrapped out during the bust.
The us auto industry did the same thing & we will never rebuild that manufacturing capacity here, GM in particular actually tore down "Buick city" to a bare concrete pad to reduce their property taxes. It's only logical that construction materials suppliers would do the same.
Depending on whose data you like to read, starts are around the 725,000 annually adjusted figure. That's still 1.5 million less than the peak of insanity we were at. But you couldn't be more right about unskilled labor and the folks that had a clue have left the industry to a much more stable job. I got into this business back in the early 70's when a construction super was making 30 grand a year. They're hiring locally for degreed construction supers at $28,000. Why would anybody want to be in this industry? You have to pay for the over priced college courses and then make as much as a flunky at Home Depot who gets to work in A/C and heat. And the education has zero value in other markets unless you're an old geezer like me who teaches it at night. But that doesn't pay that well either, but I enjoy it too much to quit.
One thing they didn't mention, futures. Most companies that are in the business of selling or furnishing lumber & wood products buys them on futures. That market is not reflecting the supposed trend they claim. Random Length Lumber
Lumber futures are always high for the beginning of the next year and fall as the time gets closer. Normally, futures buying at builder lumber companies comes in around October and November as historically this is when prices are lowest as demand is less- winter up north, holidays, end of year inventory, etc. But as you can see from the chart, prices are not climbing, they're falling at the prime time of the year. That does not equate to what the article says at all. Considering there are supposed to be over 1.6 million homes that are in mortgage trouble and the banks are doing everything possible to keep them from repossessed, I think we've only seen round one of the banks crashing if the info is correct. If that happens, watch the housing market REALLY crash.
If I didn't know any better I'd say the guys mentioned in the previous article were trying to create a phantom demand market. Maybe they're hedging like Chase did? "Where's the beef!"- I mean the $2billion?
I don't believe that for one second. Probably because it's all hogwash. That stupid baseless prediction must have been written by one of those all too common positive thinking Realtors. If there are any Realtors left.
Now for some hard core truth. The housing industry will not return to normal in at least the next 10 years and I believe it's more then that. That prediction does not come from this govt who just reports fake crap to the news stations who report that crap to the Sheep watching TV. We will not see any home appreciation in 10 years except for some isolated areas mostly due to location such as prestigious addresses or water front properties to which demand will always be there.
As of this time, 1 of ever 4 homes in America are 2nd homes. What does that tell you? That only the wealthy can buy. Only the wealthy has credit or down payment enough to buy. These statistics speak volumes.
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