Ok, I may have fixed this, BUT, it hasn't been that cold so I may not be stressing my unit enough. Anyway, I'm posting the video below and the codes.
Video:
Sendvid - Instant video upload
Code sticker from my unit:
http://i.imgur.com/ovDgiWi.jpg
I think the codes translate to a 31 (or 13?). Not that I know what it means on the sticker, but here's what I've done to "fix" my unit.
1. replaced the ignitor (told you that).
2. cleaned the flame heating sensor with fine wool pad (I got this idea from researching my unit and troubleshooting other guys had done).
The cleaning of the sensor seemed to have solve the problem for 1.5 days. However, the same code reappeared. The old sensor looked dirty. So...
3. Ordered a new OEM carrier sensor and replaced that.
Also, (maybe minor) but lightly rubbed the tips of the parts where natural gas shoots out with that fine wool pad. Thought maybe something was impeding the natural gas from coming out.
Again, seems to be working (for about 1 week) but it hasn't gotten in the 20s. We've been around the 30s and 40s. Next step may be replacing the "control board". If it stops working again, need to order a Carrier part since some people have needed to splice some aftermarket boards. Don't want to do that since feel nervous about splicing in an area with some much combustion. Prefer it to be plug and play.
Let me know what you guys think. I'm just a shade tree mechanic kinda guy.