Will there be a slowdown in the Houston economy in the next year? (real estate market, attorney)

[crono_clone]

Originally Posted by binkyman

This optimism seems very similar to that during the mid eighties right before the oil depression hit Houston and the state of Texas. I did not say a recession or a depression, but a slow down. If the falling of the price of gas helps other industries in the world other than that of oil and gas, then, it is easy to surmise, as Houston is by and large a one industry town, it should go through a slow down.

Houston is hardly the one-industry town that it was back in the eighties when the oil glut hit Houston hard. It'll still hurt, but it won't be a near-death blow like it was last time.

[binkyman]

Originally Posted by Schumacher713

The Arabs are not dumping oil and they never will. They sometimes help when there is a hard crunch. Exploration with oil is at an all time high. The new natty gas fields found. Houston is going to boom and won't stop for a long time. As for gas prices to 2.50. I don't ever see that happening again. Those times are gone my friend. I doubt oil will ever slip below 90 a barrel. So, not sure where you got that news, but it is simply not true. It is extremely far fetched.

Saudi Arabia to raise oil production substantially - The Boston Globe

The price of gas always takes a tumble during the fall. How much that will be is the question. 2.50 does seem a bit of an extreme prediction after reading more articles on it.

But, my question is whether there is going to be any falling off of the hot Houston economy. If you are standing at the very top, the only way to go is down.

[PedroMartinez]

Originally Posted by Dopo

That's what I tell everybody
but we all know that the media only makes money when they keep people in fear
"Uhhhh my God, the price of oil went down $5!!!"

My company already went through a slow down and is on the upswing

The reporters listen to the hype and the hype can make the people trading on the commodities market a fortune. Connect the dots.

[txdemo]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

If you trained monkeys to drill and run the wells for two bananas a day, you'd still lose your arse at $2,50 per barrel.

Not necessarily. It would depend on how many monkeys were required, the cost of bananas and the demand for oil.

[SS 376]

Originally Posted by binkyman

The price of gas is expected to drop to as low as 2.50 a gallon this fall

Source?

Originally Posted by binkyman

while the Arabs have been dumping oil onto the world market.

Source?

Originally Posted by binkyman

If the falling of the price of gas helps other industries in the world other than that of oil and gas, then, it is easy to surmise, as Houston is by and large a one industry town, it should go through a slow down.

Natural gas prices have been depressed since last year at least while oil prices have stayed fairly level. By your reasoning, Houston's economic performance should be fairly mediocre. I don't think that's been the case over the past few years.

[binkyman]

Originally Posted by crono_clone

Houston is hardly the one-industry town that it was back in the eighties when the oil glut hit Houston hard. It'll still hurt, but it won't be a near-death blow like it was last time.

But one can expect a slowdown, right?

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

The reporters listen to the hype and the hype can make the people trading on the commodities market a fortune. Connect the dots.

Yes, what Binky doesn't understand is that high oil prices can actually cause economic slowdowns. I think we should help binky understand this and many other things about life.


Higher oil prices have in the past led the developed economies into recessions, as readers above the age of 50 will painfully recall. This idea was capably covered by my MoneyWatch colleague Jill Schlesinger the other day, so I will not repeat the analysis, but the weekend Financial Times featured a great, or should I say brilliant, graphic comparing the U.S. economy and oil prices since 1970, thus (click to enlarge):


There's been an oil spike before every recession. The wiggly line is the two-year percent change in oil prices.

The U.S. economy is far less sensitive to oil than it was 30 or 40 years ago -- note that the doubling in 2005 didn't get an immediate recessionary response -- but higher gasoline prices will reduce the income people have to spend, and dent whatever recovery is going on in the consumer sector. Enjoy the graph, if not the message. © 2011 CBS Interactive Inc.. All Rights Reserved.

Oil Prices and Recessions, 40 Years' Worth - CBS News

[binkyman]

Originally Posted by SS 376

Source?



Source?



Natural gas prices have been depressed since last year at least while oil prices have stayed fairly level. By your reasoning, Houston's economic performance should be fairly mediocre. I don't think that's been the case over the past few years.

I did source it even though this should be general knowledge. For cripes sake. I'm just suggesting a slow down in what is basically an over heated economy. The Arabs have boosted production while the fall season is fast approaching when people quit buying so much gasoline. This should cause the price of gas to fall. How much is the question. As the price of gas falls, the Houston economy should slow.

[radiolibre99]

Houston is by and large a one industry town, it should go through a slow down.

Houston has the ports, construction (which is faring better than most states), medical (which is recession proof), education (which isn't experiencing major cuts), business and criminal justice (which is less talked about but bail bonds, attorneys, prisons, correctional, courts, etc.).

It's amazing that people think Houston is just a one industry town. Of course oil/energy is huge and the major industry here but the main reason why Houston has been strong is because of diverse industries.

Houston hasn't escaped any major overall nationwide downturn, problems persist in Houston too, it's just much more stable than the rest.

I know a lot of ya'll will hate me for saying but if the city were to invest itself in some of the growth to develop the instracture, construct better transit and add more public spaces, it would also increase growth and attract more development.

[binkyman]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

Yes, what Binky doesn't understand is that high oil prices can actually cause economic slowdowns. I think we should help binky understand this and many other things about life.


Higher oil prices have in the past led the developed economies into recessions, as readers above the age of 50 will painfully recall. This idea was capably covered by my MoneyWatch colleague Jill Schlesinger the other day, so I will not repeat the analysis, but the weekend Financial Times featured a great, or should I say brilliant, graphic comparing the U.S. economy and oil prices since 1970, thus (click to enlarge):


There's been an oil spike before every recession. The wiggly line is the two-year percent change in oil prices.

The U.S. economy is far less sensitive to oil than it was 30 or 40 years ago -- note that the doubling in 2005 didn't get an immediate recessionary response -- but higher gasoline prices will reduce the income people have to spend, and dent whatever recovery is going on in the consumer sector. Enjoy the graph, if not the message. © 2011 CBS Interactive Inc.. All Rights Reserved.

Oil Prices and Recessions, 40 Years' Worth - CBS News

Wow. I simply said a slow down. A slow down doesn't even have to mean the economy won't be booming. At some time, there is going to have to be an adjustment in the Houston economy to make up for a substantial fall in the price of gasoline this fall season.