What would become of Katy if the energy sector collapsed? (Houston: apartment complexes, foreclosure)

[Dopo]

Thanks to Obama, the oil industry has been doing great the last 5 years and I don't see that changing anytime soon

Now I'm gonna grab a chair and enjoy the show ,

[KerrTown]

Originally Posted by SoHoVe

And unlike the Woodlands and Kingwood there is nothing really special that sets Katy apart other than the good schools which wouldn't be likely to remain good if the city took a significant hit.

What is so special about The Woodlands and Kingwood? It's too far from the other major job centers besides Downtown.

Originally Posted by gwarnecke

Lots of young staff will continue to be hired to replace those who retire - just to "keep the lights on" - and those staff will need places to live. Katy checks all the boxes for many of these folks.

Actually Midtown and the Inner Loop check the boxes of the young. Even when they have kids, they will stay in the city. There are many townhomes being built in addition to the hipper condo areas.

Millenials take their sanity on commuting more seriously. They don't care if their children go to "bad" schools in the city if their sanity is on stake. They already know that the ratings are meaningless.

On the other hand - I don't feel like prices in the far reaches of Katy and beyond (in Cinco NW, Cross Creek Ranch, etc) are reflecting the reality that commute times to many parts of the city (even to the west side) are terrible and WILL get worse as the suburbs continue to expand and funnel ppl into town via a handful of routes. If I were buying in Katy I'd stay east of Fry.

I would second your recommendation on staying in the eastern part of Cinco Ranch. The only reason that the Westside is popular is due to the flexibility provided when changing job sites since all the major job centers are a straight shot between Katy and Downtown.

[Tcoma11]

Originally Posted by Dopo

Thanks to Obama, the oil industry has been doing great the last 5 years and I don't see that changing anytime soon

lol..... same could be said for the firearm industry.

He's the best salesman they've ever had

[Dopo]

Originally Posted by Tcoma11

lol..... same could be said for the firearm industry.

He's the best salesman they've ever had

He's a hell of a job creator

[Oildog]

Originally Posted by Tcoma11

lol..... same could be said for the firearm industry.

He's the best salesman they've ever had

Yep. Smith & Wesson traded under $2/share before the 2008 election. It now trades over $14/share. Thanks Obammie. I wish I would have bought more than 500 shares.

[Tassy001]

Originally Posted by KerrTown

What is so special about The Woodlands and Kingwood? It's too far from the other major job centers besides Downtown.

Actually Midtown and the Inner Loop check the boxes of the young. Even when they have kids, they will stay in the city. There are many townhomes being built in addition to the hipper condo areas.

Millenials take their sanity on commuting more seriously. They don't care if their children go to "bad" schools in the city if their sanity is on stake. They already know that the ratings are meaningless.


I would second your recommendation on staying in the eastern part of Cinco Ranch. The only reason that the Westside is popular is due to the flexibility provided when changing job sites since all the major job centers are a straight shot between Katy and Downtown.

I have just the opposite. I live in the energy corridor area and I commute to Fulshear for work.

Although, I would never buy a house based on where my job was located. My company has moved/opened new locations in the last 15 years 7 times....and all over the City and outlining areas, but never in 'downtown'.

[jfre81]

The Cold War is back. Let's revert to worrying about dying in a nuclear holocaust.

[Wolfcamp]

Originally Posted by crone

It also happened in the 80's.

This is the only real comparison to use when talking about a real estate crash in Houston.

The fallout from the oil price declines that started in 1982 and absolutely fell off the cliff in 1986 was hard on the entire city. Everywhere you looked whole strip centers went under and even some shopping centers went out of business. Shuttered businesses were a common sight. More devastating were the subdivisions where whole neighborhoods that had once been nice places to live were full of abandoned houses that had been walked away from. The pictures that came out of the 2008-09 housing bust in Las Vegas & other places reminded me of Houston during the 80's.

Some of the Houston subdivisions that had once been nice places to live prior to the 80's crash suddenly became giant tracts of cheap rental property (landlords were lucky to get anyone to move into them because of the sudden abundance of cheap rentals). Some of these areas never came back to their former glory and instead became permanent bad, high crime neighborhoods.

Though Houston was not hit near as hard as some oil towns such as Midland, OKC, Lafayette, LA, etc., it was not a pretty sight in this town and the crawl out of the economic hole took years.

Although all housing prices in Houston took a hit, some areas of Houston did better than others. Generally, anything inside or close to the loop on the west side of town fared better.

I hope to never see anything like the bust that hit the oil patch back in the 80's again, but I've been around too long to think it won't repeat.

[timtemtym]

It's happened before! Remember the 80's? abandoned homes? Stalled out neighborhoods with 5 houses completed? One effect of this can be seen along Eldridge Pkwy between Briar Forest and Memorial. That area behind the Kroger shopping center with tiny gated neighborhoods and elementary schools. That was planned as a business park before the crash. I lived there when those neighborhoods were just being built on the tracts. There were a few tiny pocket parks that hadn't been maintained in years. Homeless people slept there and it was pretty dark and dangerous when I was out walking at night. I paid about $600 for a nice one bedroom that now goes for around 1000. It's since filled in with new businesses and swanky apartments, but it was pretty bad off for awhile.

That's just one example of one of the neighborhoods closest to the energy corridor. There are many areas south of there that went bad prematurely because builders filled in lower cost housing which filled in with lower income people. Had that crash not happened, West Oaks mall would probably be on par with First Colony and Katy would have continued to boom and probably have a swanky mall of its own. Now malls aren't quite as in style. There is a huge lack of 80's style architecture in the Houston area and I notice it most when I go to cities that were booming in the 80's.

It's like a missing tree ring on Houston history.

[fnh]

Originally Posted by timtemtym

It's happened before! Remember the 80's? abandoned homes? Stalled out neighborhoods with 5 houses completed? One effect of this can be seen along Eldridge Pkwy between Briar Forest and Memorial. That area behind the Kroger shopping center with tiny gated neighborhoods and elementary schools. That was planned as a business park before the crash. I lived there when those neighborhoods were just being built on the tracts. There were a few tiny pocket parks that hadn't been maintained in years. Homeless people slept there and it was pretty dark and dangerous when I was out walking at night. I paid about $600 for a nice one bedroom that now goes for around 1000. It's since filled in with new businesses and swanky apartments, but it was pretty bad off for awhile.

That's just one example of one of the neighborhoods closest to the energy corridor. There are many areas south of there that went bad prematurely because builders filled in lower cost housing which filled in with lower income people. Had that crash not happened, West Oaks mall would probably be on par with First Colony and Katy would have continued to boom and probably have a swanky mall of its own. Now malls aren't quite as in style. There is a huge lack of 80's style architecture in the Houston area and I notice it most when I go to cities that were booming in the 80's.

It's like a missing tree ring on Houston history.

No, tim, you cannot convince people that certain parts of the western city have ever been anything but simultaneous rainbows and sunshine, despite all evidence to the contrary. Even as we marvel at the recent decade of revitalization of this area we must believe that it has never been otherwise, and will never be.