Future Property Values in Sugar Land (Missouri City, New Territory: new house, buying, depreciation)

[ToyYot]

Originally Posted by Htown2013

77079 is still desirable and still good long term investment if you like the area, but that specific zip code was bid up much higher % wise than pretty much any other place in the city, including desirable inner loop areas, primarily due to Oil & Gas relos into the area.

I'll have to disagree with your observation, at least based on my experience. Since we were looking in 2010 - 2012 Briarcroft, Briargrove, Afton Oaks, Larchmont have all appreciated more %age wise then 77079. For the same money as here, you can't buy what you used to there (Larchmont on a smaller scale of course). And that's just what we looked at. I would agree that north of I-10 from the loop out to the 99 has likely appreciated more than most %age wise and the same could be said for other more limited/specific parts of the city such as Oak Forest. The question is, what will hold its value the best?

I suspect better locations will have smoother peaks and valleys no matter what part of the city they're in.

[EasilyAmused]

Originally Posted by ToyYot

I'll have to disagree with your observation, at least based on my experience. Since we were looking in 2010 - 2012 Briarcroft, Briargrove, Afton Oaks, Larchmont have all appreciated more %age wise then 77079. For the same money as here, you can't buy what you used to there (Larchmont on a smaller scale of course). And that's just what we looked at. I would agree that north of I-10 from the loop out to the 99 has likely appreciated more than most %age wise and the same could be said for other more limited/specific parts of the city such as Oak Forest. The question is, what will hold its value the best?

I suspect better locations will have smoother peaks and valleys no matter what part of the city they're in.

Briargrove will get hit very hard in a downturn. It always does. But then it's usually one of the first to come back. Their new construction has almost stopped this year. 1.3 million for poor schools after 5th grade is a hard sell for the younger families that neighborhood historically attracts.

IMHO, Oak Forest and Timbergrove are in for a bumpy ride if the economy goes down. Afton Oaks has graduated from the same category as the other neighborhoods listed.

[Htown2013]

Given what we know now, what is the worst and best probable/likely scenarios for single family home property values in central Sugar Land (Telfair and the part of First Colony zoned to Clements) during 2015, 2016, and 2017/2018?

Given what we know now:
- Oil prices have fallen dramatically and somewhat unexpectedly. What it does in 2015 is up for grabs. Most sources think it will increase by 2017/2018 at the latest, if not sooner.
- Sugar Land is a desirable suburb, somewhat unique to Houston in that it is its own city with planning, zoning, with quality of life improvements existing or planned (3 museums, minor league park, concert hall, river parks, trails, convention center, etc.) that will materialize in the above mentioned timeframe.
- Mortgage interest rates are still at historical lows, but are forecasted to climb, who knows what they will be by 2017/2018 (5.5% - 7.5%??)

Given all the above, what do you think is the best probable and worst probable scenarios for central Sugar Land property values and real estate over the next year, and 2-3 years from now?

[Rip808]

Yeah and oil was not "forecasted" to be $50 at the end of 2014 either...all these forecasts and projections etc etc...if any one person knew they would be rich. And I'm sure they would not be sharing their tricks/tips on City-data. You can't play the market. If you are ready to buy, and feel secure in your purchase, be ready to "ride it out". Will the market head south if oil prices stay this low? Probably. How low? Heck if I know. What happens if oil shoots back up in June? What happens if it goes down to $40, 30, 20, etc? Unless your some sort of fortune teller, all in all NO ONE KNOWS.

[ToyYot]

Originally Posted by Htown2013

Given what we know now, what is the worst and best probable/likely scenarios for single family home property values in central Sugar Land (Telfair and the part of First Colony zoned to Clements) during 2015, 2016, and 2017/2018?

Given what we know now:
- Oil prices have fallen dramatically and somewhat unexpectedly. What it does in 2015 is up for grabs. Most sources think it will increase by 2017/2018 at the latest, if not sooner.
- Sugar Land is a desirable suburb, somewhat unique to Houston in that it is its own city with planning, zoning, with quality of life improvements existing or planned (3 museums, minor league park, concert hall, river parks, trails, convention center, etc.) that will materialize in the above mentioned timeframe.
- Mortgage interest rates are still at historical lows, but are forecasted to climb, who knows what they will be by 2017/2018 (5.5% - 7.5%??)

Given all the above, what do you think is the best probable and worst probable scenarios for central Sugar Land property values and real estate over the next year, and 2-3 years from now?

I may be an outlier but I don't see the appeal of Sugarland over any other suburb. When we were looking at houses we looked at Sugarland but as it didn't offer any commute advantage over Katy we didn't look at it any further. It may have a few more amenities but I didn't see anything that really distinguished it overall from any other really nice suburb - Cinco Ranch/Woodlands/etc.

So, my answer is, as with all the other suburbs, Sugarland prices will ebb and flow more or less together with the Houston economy as a whole.

I sympathize to some degree with the Friendswood poster on another thread - the Houston suburbs aren't for everyone. So the suggestions to look at Sugarland as an alternative make no sense to me.

[usc619]

Originally Posted by ToyYot

I may be an outlier but I don't see the appeal of Sugarland over any other suburb. When we were looking at houses we looked at Sugarland but as it didn't offer any commute advantage over Katy we didn't look at it any further. It may have a few more amenities but I didn't see anything that really distinguished it overall from any other really nice suburb - Cinco Ranch/Woodlands/etc.

So, my answer is, as with all the other suburbs, Sugarland prices will ebb and flow more or less together with the Houston economy as a whole.

I sympathize to some degree with the Friendswood poster on another thread - the Houston suburbs aren't for everyone. So the suggestions to look at Sugarland as an alternative make no sense to me.

I would have to disagree, Sugarland is the top suburb/city in the Houston area hands down, followed by the Woodlands. As a Katy resident, I can live with that.

[ipuck]

Originally Posted by usc619

I would have to disagree, Sugarland is the top suburb/city in the Houston area hands down, followed by the Woodlands. As a Katy resident, I can live with that.

I moved to Sugar Land and I hate to admit it, but quality of life IS BETTER down here. I don't know what it is, maybe the people, maybe the way things are run, things just are better.

I also want to point out Sugar Land appreciation is not the same everywhere. Only certain areas have experienced price appreciation the last 3 years. Lot of areas did not and miss the whole boom.

So it wouldn't surprise me if some of the fast gain areas have a 5-15% drop.

[Failed Engineer]

Sugar Land major appreciation is basically centered around First Colony zoned to Clements, East New Territory, and Telfair. It will take a persistent depressed economy for prices to fall significantly in these areas.

Secondary appreciation in Greatwood, West New Territory, FC zoned to Dulles, Sugar Creek, Sugar Lakes, and older Riverstone. These neighborhoods will be first to lose their gains, IMO.

Anywhere else in SL didn't really benefit from rapid appreciation.

[misterno]

I am in Meadows Place, Grove west area

I bought my house for 258K on May, 2014 and in September there were two houses of same square footage and symmetric to my house has been sold for 303K and 310K in 1 day

Bought buyers did not have kids, I am saying this because we do not have good schools in my area. I also met these 2 buyers in person and asked them why they have chosen medows place and why not Sugarland

They both said they were priced out in Sugarland and were not able to win the bidding war.

This is really a spillover effect and yes I am happy for now and I am considering selling the house and rent for 1-2 years then buy again

but my wife says no. Damn!!!!

I am sitting on a dynamite but can not do anything!!!!

[ipuck]

Originally Posted by Failed Engineer

Sugar Land major appreciation is basically centered around First Colony zoned to Clements, East New Territory, and Telfair. It will take a persistent depressed economy for prices to fall significantly in these areas.

Secondary appreciation in Greatwood, West New Territory, FC zoned to Dulles, Sugar Creek, Sugar Lakes, and older Riverstone. These neighborhoods will be first to lose their gains, IMO.

Anywhere else in SL didn't really benefit from rapid appreciation.

You forgot the #1 appreciation area, Riverstone (the new section).