Still booming? (Houston, West, Meadow: 2013, how much, home)

[ToyYot]

Originally Posted by Keyan

It has nothing to do with the suburbs, those were just examples. EC is far from downtown/itl. that is why it won't hold its value as well as lets say West U. Inner proximity is the difference.

EC is far from downtown?? Who cares?! EC values are tied to the EC/Westchase - downtown is just a decent commute from here. West U will hold it's value because of location AND schools, just like anywhere else.

Why do you think the tide that lifted all boats since 2008 is somehow now going to have a different effect on the way down? How much class A office space has been built o/s of the loop since then? Are there no O&G companies downtown anymore?

Your 'inner proximity' is a delusion, its proximity to employment centers and good public schools. This is what sells and what sold quickly in the middle of the last downturn and will again.

[rjj42]

Originally Posted by chris_ut

Real Estate is never hot in the winter. I will be interested to see Q1 2015 sales compared to Q1 2014 though and see how they hold up.

Yes, I think that makes a lot of sense. Sales are never hot in the December/early January time.

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

It is still way to early. I expect early bust signals before end of 1st qtr 2015, and outright bust by 4th qtr 2015.

Why are you so doom and gloom? Do you have any skin in this game?

[AliefPropOwner]

Originally Posted by Htown2013

Why are you so doom and gloom? Do you have any skin in this game?

Because black swan events don't occur often in our lifetimes. This is a time to prepare to prosper.

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by Keyan

I'd say that in majority areas, especially Katy, EC, Sugarland, Woodlands. but I doubt it in neighborhoods like West U, Upper Kirby or Montrose. Houstonian's are making the trend of catapulting inwards.

I really don't see Sugar Land "busting" as much as Katy or The Woodlands for the following reasons:

1) Of the three, it is the closest to the inner loop employment centers, especially the med center

2) Sugar Land property owners seem much more diverse (in employment sense) than the others, much more medical employees (doctors, nurses, etc.), technology employees, and local business owners, while Katy and TW are more concentrated Oil & Gas.

3) The older parts of Sugar Land (actually in the City of Sugar Land) seem to have aged much better then most other SUBURBAN areas of the entire Houston metro (save for Memorial). ITL/NTL areas don't count as they have recently gentrified and redeveloped.

4) Sugar Land is its own city with zoning, planning, and dedicated city services. Unfortunately this is somewhat unique to Houston metro and counts for something. The city has its act together, and is planning an entertainment venue, convention center, parks, children's museum, history museum, multiple destinations.

Sugar Land doesn't seem like another humdrum suburb that will decline. While Katy and The Woodlands are nice areas with good schools, they are heavily O&G dependant, and are unincorporated parts of their respective counties in Houston ETJ. There is the city of Katy, but it is only 5% of the area known as Katy.

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

Because black swan events don't occur often in our lifetimes. This is a time to prepare to prosper.

How are you planning to prepare to prosper? Are you planning to sell your Royal Oaks property ASAP before the 3Q/4Q 2015 doom?

[AliefPropOwner]

Originally Posted by Htown2013

How are you planning to prepare to prosper? Are you planning to sell your Royal Oaks property ASAP before the 3Q/4Q 2015 doom?

No. I'm planning to buy in other areas at 65 to 75 cents on the dollar.

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

No. I'm planning to buy in other areas at 65 to 75 cents on the dollar.

65 cents on the dollar?? Where are you expecting to find that? Are you aware that even in 1986 we didn't bust nearly that much, save for foreclosures and maybe distressed commercial property.

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

No. I'm planning to buy in other areas at 65 to 75 cents on the dollar.

So you predict a bust by 4Q15? What do you expect the real estate market to be here in 2017? What about 2018? Interest rates will be higher by then. When do you expect the 65/75 cents on the dollar places to get back to current valuations or higher? Obviously you're expecting them to do so or you wouldn't be buying them.

[AliefPropOwner]

Originally Posted by Htown2013

So you predict a bust by 4Q15? What do you expect the real estate market to be here in 2017? What about 2018? Interest rates will be higher by then. When do you expect the 65/75 cents on the dollar places to get back to current valuations or higher? Obviously you're expecting them to do so or you wouldn't be buying them.

We be in decline by end of 2015. Late 2016 and into 2017 is when to begin accumulation.