Big Real Estate Correction Coming - Perfect Storm

[bilz987]

New home sales fall as inventories rise - Prime Property

[cheryjohns]

Originally Posted by bilz987

New home sales fall as inventories rise - Prime Property

I have high hopes that I will be able to see real inventory homes again, like I did up to about 2 or 3 years ago. Now "inventory" (if there is one) is a plot of dirt, but they have ordered the finishes already and selected the floor plan. MAYBE you can find one in the process of being framed. Never anything close to being finished.

To me, that is a normal market (with some real inventory) in new construction, not like it has been in the last couple of years.

[rjj42]

Originally Posted by bilz987

New home sales fall as inventories rise - Prime Property

Thanks for sharing this article.
I would love to see a similar article in which the analysis is done for specific parts of town, that would be more informative than talking about the city in general I feel since some areas will be more affected than others.

[ipuck]

Fact vs Fiction: How Low Oil Prices Are Affecting Houston's Housing Market

Interesting reading.

Most interesting part:

Myth # 2: Houston home prices are still rising

Fact: Houston home prices are already falling in many neighborhoods, particularly outside of the loop. On an inflation adjusted basis, home prices are even lower. I can show you several master-planned communities in Katy with LOWER closed prices (price square foot) YoY. The artificial suppression of interest rates by the Fed has also artificially inflated home prices.

Myth # 3: Houston home inventory is still very low

Fact: Home inventory has been rising all year. While inventory of affordable homes under $300,000 is still low, single-family inventory in the upper price segments is much higher than the 3.4 month average you see in the press release. HAR data show that inventory in the $350,000-$399,999 category stood at 5.5 months of supply. For the $400,000-$499,999 category inventory is at 6.2 months of supply. For the $500,000-599,999 price segment inventory is at 7.1 months of supply. (as of July 31st)

[dd1153]

inventory at higher prices will always be higher. give me YoY data on those specific price points. to say a home $400-500k moves as fast as a home $350k is absurd. loan qualification drops off around the $300k price point.

there is not an abundance of people who can afford $300k+