Will Houston boom again since oil is rising? (rated, regulations)

[coolieandre]

Originally Posted by nana053

The US has the largest pool of oil in the world according to this 2016 report

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles...says-new-study

I did hear that, and it`s not apart of OPEC, but is this America or N. America?

[cBach]

Originally Posted by coolieandre

I did hear that, and it`s not apart of OPEC, but is this America or N. America?

The periphery middle eastern oil (UAE, Bahrain, etc...) is almost over. That's why they are shifting to tourism.

Canada has enough oil sands and oil in the arctic north to last 50 more years or more.

The US has enough oil that can supply oil (mainly Western/Great Plains US fracking) to the world for 30-50 years.

There is untold oil in the Arctic Ocean that may become available as the icecaps melt.

We aren't going to run out of oil but the price to extract some of it will become so costly that eventually things will shift.

Electric cars will soon become the norm (> 50% of the people will have one) in about 20 years. Those cars will refuel with power from mainly natural gas power plants. Natural gas is cheaper, cleaner, and more efficient and there is virtually a limitless supply.

This is why the shift is to LNG as natural gas will become more important than oil in about 20 years but the only way to transport it across the seas is to convert it to a liquid so the volume decreases substantially. Louisiana seems to be capitalizing on buildings LNG plants but a couple are going up in TX.

Houston will be the energy capital of the world for the foreseeable future. However, companies will become uber efficient and it won't take as many jobs as it currently does. Already improvements in software means that work that geologists and other engineers did to find oil and figure out how to extract it are being done by elaborate computer programs. A lot of the IT infrastructure and other areas will be outsourced to countries overseas. Chemical engineers will still be in demand as they invent new ways to utilize oil and natural gas. GTL is an interesting area.

The boom from 2011-2014 simply will not be repeated.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by cBach

Yep, Houston danced and now it's time to pay the piper.

Hurricane Harvey was so destructive because all the fertile plains around Katy, which used to absorb water, were developed into housing, freeways, and strip malls. So that water had to go somewhere.

Imagine if Houston had restricted development such that nothing had been permitted outside of the Beltway. The flooding from Harvey wouldn't have been nearly as bad. Also, because many more people would be crammed in a smaller area, most of the housing would've been multilevel with parking garage on the lower levels so this would've meant that virtually nobody would've been flooded. Only those silly tunnels downtown, which to be frank need to be closed. They should've built elevated walkways like Minneapolis did instead of underground tunnels in a city that floods but whose businessman don't want to walk across the street in heat and humidity. Or just not built them, I mean the businessmen in New Orleans walk from the CBD to Galatoires in suits for lunch and don't complain...

Houston does not control development in the whole region. Counties in Texas are notoriously weak when it comes to their ability to regulate anything beside simple law enforcement. So where does that leave us ? The State either needs to give counties more regulatory muscle or set up regional regulatory authorities or oversee the development themselves.

Originally Posted by Mr. Clutch

I don't know how many of those 60,000 jobs are construction related. Do you? Just saying "that's the case" doesn't necessarily make that true. Do you have any data supporting that case?

Houston isn't New Orleans, and Harvey was bad - but it was no Katrina with 1,000+ deaths and leaving behind a swampy, uninhabitable soup for weeks. Of course there are some temporary, Harvey-related jobs in the growth mix, but I seriously doubt thats the main activity propping the city up. Just looking at the types of postings on indeed don't seem to tell that story either. But perhaps you have better data?

EMPLOYMENT UPDATE

Metro Houston created 67,100 jobs in the 12 months ending February ’18, according to the Texas Workforce Commission. Total payroll employment stood at 3,058,500 in February, up 2.2 percent from February a year earlier.
http://www.houston.org/pdf/research/...t_a_Glance.pdf

[nana053]

Originally Posted by coolieandre

I did hear that, and it`s not apart of OPEC, but is this America or N. America?

The US actually has 264 billion barrels and Texas has 60 billion. Read the article, not just the headline.

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles...says-new-study

[Houston321]

Originally Posted by cBach

You are selling homes because of supply and demand. Supply is down because many homes are flooded thus demand is high and things move quickly. Once homes are gutted and reconstructed they will go on the market, most at about the same time and there will be a glut and then the prices will come crashing down.

These are the facts.

Those are your facts. The facts are that material prices and labor prices are on the rise. Prices aren't going down, and they certainly aren't going to crash. You are wrong. Many of the people we are selling to aren't Harvey related at all, many are coming from LA, CA, in fact had a bunch in from CT in the past few weeks. The lack of developed land is also driving land costs up. I know this, because this is what I do. I'm not sure what you do, but you don't know or understand the current housing market.

[cBach]

Originally Posted by Houston321

but you don't know or understand the current housing market.

Believe whatever you want but you'll see in about 2-3 years I'm right about this.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by jfre81

Harvey was the wall.

No. As long as the region grows its overall jobs, sprawl will continue. Home buyers have proven over and over again that they are willing to forgo existing suburbs to have (1) a new house (2) schools they perceive as "better" (3) more "country" atmosphere (4) a "preferred" demographic profile of their neighborhood and schools. Major land plays are now occurring in Montgomery, Liberty, Brazoria and northwest Harris counties that will put new developments 30 miles or more from Downtown. OK, the Brazoria ones aren't as far, but still. The new Howard Hughes community is in Willis, for Pete's sake.

Even school barriers can be broken. Valley Ranch and Tavola are in New Caney - Porter schools, which suburbanites avoided like the plague for decades. Somehow, even the "wall" to the west that is Royal ISD will somehow be overcome, I expect. Or maybe stuff will just jump to Sealy.

[Dopo]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

Houston does not control development in the whole region. Counties in Texas are notoriously weak when it comes to their ability to regulate anything beside simple law enforcement. So where does that leave us ? The State either needs to give counties more regulatory muscle or set up regional regulatory authorities or oversee the development themselves.

So much for "Small government Texas"

[DabOnEm]

Originally Posted by cBach

Yep, Houston danced and now it's time to pay the piper.

Hurricane Harvey was so destructive because all the fertile plains around Katy, which used to absorb water, were developed into housing, freeways, and strip malls. So that water had to go somewhere.

Imagine if Houston had restricted development such that nothing had been permitted outside of the Beltway. The flooding from Harvey wouldn't have been nearly as bad. Also, because many more people would be crammed in a smaller area, most of the housing would've been multilevel with parking garage on the lower levels so this would've meant that virtually nobody would've been flooded. Only those silly tunnels downtown, which to be frank need to be closed. They should've built elevated walkways like Minneapolis did instead of underground tunnels in a city that floods but whose businessman don't want to walk across the street in heat and humidity. Or just not built them, I mean the businessmen in New Orleans walk from the CBD to Galatoires in suits for lunch and don't complain...

Part of what you say is true, but do you know why the reservoirs in west Harris County were built before WWII? Take a while guess, the word starts with the letter "F". And that was before development even got past what is now known as Beltway 8. 610 was the outskirts of the city then. This part of the state has always had issues with flooding. A lot could have been mitigated if local, state, and national leaders had for development regulations. Houston should have been built like South Florida, where local and state officials had much more planning in regards to drainage and retention. Houston can have the same land area of sprawl as it has now and not have as bad of a flooding problem if housing was built differently, and developers / suburban cities had stricter elevation/drainage requirements. I think the main problem is there are too many unincorporated areas that only answer to MUDs or the county so there's not enough local control with that.

[cBach]

Originally Posted by DabOnEm

Part of what you say is true, but do you know why the reservoirs in west Harris County were built before WWII? Take a while guess, the word starts with the letter "F". And that was before development even got past what is now known as Beltway 8. 610 was the outskirts of the city then. This part of the state has always had issues with flooding. A lot could have been mitigated if local, state, and national leaders had for development regulations. Houston should have been built like South Florida, where local and state officials had much more planning in regards to drainage and retention. Houston can have the same land area of sprawl as it has now and not have as bad of a flooding problem if housing was built differently, and developers / suburban cities had stricter elevation/drainage requirements. I think the main problem is there are too many unincorporated areas that only answer to MUDs or the county so there's not enough local control with that.

The only way for things to change is for potential homeowners to hold the developers accountable and ask tough questions. Before you sign, ask for a flood map. Ask what the community is doing to do flood mitigation.

If the realtor has a deer in the headlights look then move right along. They MUST be able to answer these questions or you need to dump them and find someone that has more knowledge. Knowledge is power.