Hidalgo to order Harris County to wear masks in public for 30 days (China: how much, homes)

[jerbear30]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

I dont know if youre addressing me or not. I never claimed that COVID is like the flu so youre presenting a point that I wasnt arguing.

Yes, there are some deaths that havent been accounted for. However, that number is a tiny, minuscule, FRACTION of cases and infections that are not accounted for.

One of the principles of math is that the higher the total number, the higher even a "miniscule" percentage of that number will be. At least I think that's the way it works. I don't really care if it winds up being .7% or if it's 6%--it's still a huge number when compared to the usual death rate, which means, wait for it.... there are a LOT more deaths because of the virus. My point is that you are equivocating numbers to make it seem like the deaths are tolerable, or not that big a number. But your argument is based on smoke and mirrors.

[Dopo]

Originally Posted by mkwensky

I don't know how someone in the medical science can look at the numbers and say this with a straight face. The 'death rate' for Covid is around 6% in the US which makes it more than a hundred times worse than the flu. We're on track to exceed 100k deaths by the end of the month and who know how many before the first wave ends.

6% of what?
Population? People tested? Or people that were found to have the virus?

[Vicman]

??

Putting the social distancing and isolation aside, I don’t see how COVID 19 would otherwise impact the flu death statistics: they are generated from mathematical modeling. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

Also the CDC includes any death which flu contributes to as a flu death even if the final cause of death was something else. The Chinese government paper Global Times talks about that here https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml

One can get flu and COVID at the same time.

Originally Posted by resonator

wish I had a 'fact-based' detector


the death by CV19 numbers are such that normal flu and pneumonia deaths are down 50%

[lipbalm]

Originally Posted by Dopo

6% of what?
Population? People tested? Or people that were found to have the virus?

I think it would be Case Fatality Rate or CFR. = # of Deaths from Covid-19/# of Confirmed Cases.


The Infection Fatality Rate or IFR = # of Deaths from covid -19/# of Total Infections (Confirmed or not).

The CFR would have a higher rate becasue the denominator is smaller. We wont know the IFR for some time, until broad antibody testing is available. My doctor recommended against antibody test because they are still trying to determine the reliability.

# of Total Infections > # of Confirmed Cases.

Or so how I understand the math.

[mkwensky]

Originally Posted by lipbalm

I think it would be Case Fatality Rate or CFR. = # of Deaths from Covid-19/# of Confirmed Cases.


The Infection Fatality Rate or IFR = # of Deaths from covid -19/# of Total Infections (Confirmed or not).

The CFR would have a higher rate becasue the denominator is smaller. We wont know the IFR for some time, until broad antibody testing is available. My doctor recommended against antibody test because they are still trying to determine the reliability.

# of Total Infections > # of Confirmed Cases.

Or so how I understand the math.

Yes. Just divide the total number of deaths attributed to Covid by the 'number of cases'. At this point neither number is that reliable, but the true 'death rate' is probably a little under 1% according to most experts. According to the CDC who thinks the true fatality rate is 0.6% the fatality rate for flu in most year is 0.1%. These numbers are all estimates since it's impossible to keep track of how many people got the flu and how many died from it.

Regardless of these statistics we're on track to blow past 100k deaths in the US this week and the way the trend lines are going this thing isn't really slowing down. The latest model predicts 140k deaths from the first wave along, but I see no evidence we're in a wave - it's more like a plateau.

I can understand wanting to open things up for those less concerned about their health for the benefit of the economy, even at the high cost, but I don't get why some people insist that wearing a mask infringes on their freedom in a fundamental way. Exactly what activity does a mask prevent you from engaging?

[Ghost Town]

Well China is shutting down again due to the second wave of the virus. How many waves are going to be?
I don't think shelter in place in Houston was not a right decision. At that time it was a reasonable strategy. Especially with this new virus. However I tend to believe that Sweden, even though criticized heavily, has more efficient approach overall. They didn't shut down during the first wave, they already went through this and are now better prepared to deal with the second wave. And overall math after all the waves combined most likely is going to be pretty much the same across the globe, however Sweden is dealing with this without shutting down their economy.

[Vicman]

Originally Posted by Ghost Town

Well China is shutting down again due to the second wave of the virus. How many waves are going to be?
I don't think shelter in place in Houston was not a right decision. At that time it was a reasonable strategy. Especially with this new virus. However I tend to believe that Sweden, even though criticized heavily, has more efficient approach overall. They didn't shut down during the first wave, they already went through this and are now better prepared to deal with the second wave. And overall math after all the waves combined most likely is going to be pretty much the same across the globe, however Sweden is dealing with this without shutting down their economy.

I think a comparison between Sweden's approach and those of Taiwan and South Korea would be good. What steps did they do?

Also I wonder if the character of some Americans to disregard sudden social distancing rules contributed to a need for a (relatively) stricter lockdown?

[houston-nomad]

Originally Posted by Vicman

I think a comparison between Sweden's approach and those of Taiwan and South Korea would be good. What steps did they do?

Also I wonder if the character of some Americans to disregard sudden social distancing rules contributed to a need for a (relatively) stricter lockdown?

Sweden relied on the overall good health of its citizens, its strong healthcare system, and the willingness of its citizens to agree to social distancing rules and health checks when needed (Yes, they did... most worked from home). We have none of those things here.

[Ghost Town]

Originally Posted by houston-nomad

Sweden relied on the overall good health of its citizens, its strong healthcare system, and the willingness of its citizens to agree to social distancing rules and health checks when needed (Yes, they did... most worked from home). We have none of those things here.

Healthcare system I guess is definitely better there. But I don't think that the US has reason not to rely on its own healthcare system.
Overall we had a lot more restrictions not only in Houston but in the US in general. They didn't shut down businesses including restaurants, they didn't shut down parks, they didn't shut down daycares and schools for the young children.
I worked mostly from work during April only because we are an essential business, and even though I had to apply for exemption. I hear that lots of large IT companies employees in California will continue working from home until the end of 2020.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...ntary-strategy

And on the other hand, much heavier restrictions in Russia are not helping much. If massive second wave happens here in Houston I don't think lockdown would really help. It will just delay 3rd wave. And it's going to be an endless circle.

[Vicman]

Delaying is the point: buying time until a vaccine is created. (the other possibility is the disease dying out like SARS did)

Originally Posted by Ghost Town

If massive second wave happens here in Houston I don't think lockdown would really help. It will just delay 3rd wave. And it's going to be an endless circle.