Joe Biden's Energy Policy's Effect on the Houston Economy (Austin: 2015, broker)

[LocalPlanner]

The oil and gas industry has a lot of challenges to deal with that hurt it economically that have nothing to do with what Biden (or more generally, the Democratic Party) would do if they had full power in DC. Ironically, as has been pointed out, fracking is a big part of the challenges - while it certainly generated a lot of oil field jobs in the U.S., it is also a major factor contributing to keeping prices low because it's become so easy for the U.S. to increase supply to meet demand (not to mention that the Saudis and Russians have also proven willing to increase production and lower prices in response). In terms of economic theory, that's great! But for white collar jobs in Houston (and other locations where there's white collar jobs in the industry), not so good. It discourages offshore deepwater oil drilling, which is responsible for a lot of high-paying jobs here too. The financial realities of the oil industry as it is pretty much mean that the future of its white-collar Houston jobs is quite possibly a stagnant one - we may just never have as many of those jobs as we had as of summer 2019, when Wall Street decided that the industry can't earn sufficient returns any more.

That said, whatever restrictions Democrats might choose to enact certainly wouldn't be likely to help domestic production, and I would imagine the impact on the field workers in the Permian and Eagle Ford would be negative, as would the impact on oil field related manufacturing activities, a lot of which takes place in the Houston area. So, there's a big kernel of truth in the assertions that anti-Democrat folks are making with regard to that party's potential policies toward the oil industry, IMHO.

I've heard some folks say that a Trump re-election would result in a fantastic oil industry boom in the near term, but I don't see how the economics of the industry as it stands now would enable that possibility.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

Actually banning fracking or substantially curtailing it might just be what the Houston economy needs. If you limit fracking that curtails supply and of course if you curtail supply prices go up. Houston's economy is more affected by the price of oil. Most if not all of those oilfield jobs are in west and south Texas.

Under Jimmy Carters administration Houston's oil and gas economy boomed, under Reagan it crashed, so Democrats are not necessarily bad for oil and gas, and Republicans are not necessarily good. The oil and gas economy has not really thrived under Trump and did OK under Obama, Dubya Bush is really the only Republican since Nixon that oversaw a really thriving oil and gas sector...

Houston really took off when Reagan got elected and he got rid of Jimmy Carter's "windfall profits tax."

He also reformed the tax code and made limited partnerships a very good investment vehicle that drove a lot of investment.

The crash happened when worldwide oil prices crashed.

[astrohip]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

I've heard some folks say that a Trump re-election would result in a fantastic oil industry boom in the near term, but I don't see how the economics of the industry as it stands now would enable that possibility.

The only people who think that are Trumpers. People who deal in reality know better. As you say, the economics don't support it. Economics are reality.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

The oil and gas industry has a lot of challenges to deal with that hurt it economically that have nothing to do with what Biden (or more generally, the Democratic Party) would do if they had full power in DC. Ironically, as has been pointed out, fracking is a big part of the challenges - while it certainly generated a lot of oil field jobs in the U.S., it is also a major factor contributing to keeping prices low because it's become so easy for the U.S. to increase supply to meet demand (not to mention that the Saudis and Russians have also proven willing to increase production and lower prices in response). In terms of economic theory, that's great! But for white collar jobs in Houston (and other locations where there's white collar jobs in the industry), not so good. It discourages offshore deepwater oil drilling, which is responsible for a lot of high-paying jobs here too. The financial realities of the oil industry as it is pretty much mean that the future of its white-collar Houston jobs is quite possibly a stagnant one - we may just never have as many of those jobs as we had as of summer 2019, when Wall Street decided that the industry can't earn sufficient returns any more.

That said, whatever restrictions Democrats might choose to enact certainly wouldn't be likely to help domestic production, and I would imagine the impact on the field workers in the Permian and Eagle Ford would be negative, as would the impact on oil field related manufacturing activities, a lot of which takes place in the Houston area. So, there's a big kernel of truth in the assertions that anti-Democrat folks are making with regard to that party's potential policies toward the oil industry, IMHO.

I've heard some folks say that a Trump re-election would result in a fantastic oil industry boom in the near term, but I don't see how the economics of the industry as it stands now would enable that possibility.

The only question I have as to the future of oil is , is there one more boom left ever ? I think so but I am far from certain.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

The oil and gas industry has a lot of challenges to deal with that hurt it economically that have nothing to do with what Biden (or more generally, the Democratic Party) would do if they had full power in DC. Ironically, as has been pointed out, fracking is a big part of the challenges - while it certainly generated a lot of oil field jobs in the U.S., it is also a major factor contributing to keeping prices low because it's become so easy for the U.S. to increase supply to meet demand (not to mention that the Saudis and Russians have also proven willing to increase production and lower prices in response). In terms of economic theory, that's great! But for white collar jobs in Houston (and other locations where there's white collar jobs in the industry), not so good. It discourages offshore deepwater oil drilling, which is responsible for a lot of high-paying jobs here too. The financial realities of the oil industry as it is pretty much mean that the future of its white-collar Houston jobs is quite possibly a stagnant one - we may just never have as many of those jobs as we had as of summer 2019, when Wall Street decided that the industry can't earn sufficient returns any more.

That said, whatever restrictions Democrats might choose to enact certainly wouldn't be likely to help domestic production, and I would imagine the impact on the field workers in the Permian and Eagle Ford would be negative, as would the impact on oil field related manufacturing activities, a lot of which takes place in the Houston area. So, there's a big kernel of truth in the assertions that anti-Democrat folks are making with regard to that party's potential policies toward the oil industry, IMHO.

I've heard some folks say that a Trump re-election would result in a fantastic oil industry boom in the near term, but I don't see how the economics of the industry as it stands now would enable that possibility.

In other words, more vulnerable would be Midland and Odessa, Lake Charles area and certain places within Houston such as Pasadena

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

The only question I have as to the future of oil is , is there one more boom left ever ? I think so but I am far from certain.

If you’re talking about a late 2000s style boom, no those days are gone forever. If you’re talking about a slight increase and then stabilization, I think there should be.

[nana053]

Interesting report on transitions to renewable energy

https://www.iea.org/reports/the-oil-...gy-transitions

[webster]

From the moment you press start on the coffee maker in the morning or brush your teeth until you set the alarm at night, you are touching plastic which comes from natural gas and petroleum products. Don't worry about the energy industry, our appetite for their products is unrelenting. They may have to adapt. I doubt they will go the way of the ice industry which at its peak employed over 100,000 people before electric refrigeration arrived.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

If you’re talking about a late 2000s style boom, no those days are gone forever. If you’re talking about a slight increase and then stabilization, I think there should be.

Agreed. Now if the question is if there will be an absolute economic boom here, I do see it given our resources, infrastructure and education. But it won’t be as steep as late 2000s like you mentioned. But it’s better that way. The overly steep highs help build but can offer false investment in the long run

The COVID driven office space reduction (which happened everywhere) has caused some of the better off companies (with sustainable operating income) to go ahead and invest in office space here. There’s speculation that this and the low COL here is what pushed Banorte to move its headquarters here.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by webster

From the moment you press start on the coffee maker in the morning or brush your teeth until you set the alarm at night, you are touching plastic which comes from natural gas and petroleum products. Don't worry about the energy industry, our appetite for their products is unrelenting. They may have to adapt. I doubt they will go the way of the ice industry which at its peak employed over 100,000 people before electric refrigeration arrived.

Most folks would agree (I guess hard-core greenies wouldn't, but whatever) that oil and gas isn't going to dry up and blow away. It's just that it may never be the economic growth driver again for Houston or some other areas in Texas that it used to be.

Frankly, I have think all this argument over oil and gas policy doesn't resonate with voters the same way anymore in DFW, Austin, San Antonio, or El Paso compared to how it matters here, the Permian Basin, and a few other areas where the industry remains more economically dominant.