Long-term outlook for west Houston outside the beltway (Katy, Briar: apartment complexes, crime rate)

[Corridor Chick]

Some 20 years ago, the general advice for people wanting to move to west Houston was "Stay north of Westheimer". Now, though, as gentrification prospers in other parts of town, it's opposite, poverty concentration, has been creeping into west Houston, especially the old apartment complexes just outside the beltway. Now the general wisdom may well be "Stay west of Kirkwood," correct? With all the armchair and actual realtors and planners on here, has anyone looked into their crystal ball and predicted what the west side will be like 20-30 years from now, specifically between Westheimer and the beltway. Will single family properties hold their value?

[WRM20]

Originally Posted by Corridor Chick

Some 20 years ago, the general advice for people wanting to move to west Houston was "Stay north of Westheimer". Now, though, as gentrification prospers in other parts of town, it's opposite, poverty concentration, has been creeping into west Houston, especially the old apartment complexes just outside the beltway. Now the general wisdom may well be "Stay west of Kirkwood," correct? With all the armchair and actual realtors and planners on here, has anyone looked into their crystal ball and predicted what the west side will be like 20-30 years from now, specifically between Westheimer and the beltway. Will single family properties hold their value?

Westheimer and BW8 intersect. There's not really a between, unless you are talking South of Westheimer to BW8 South, or North of Westheimer to BW8 North

[NigerianNightmare]

Originally Posted by Corridor Chick

Some 20 years ago, the general advice for people wanting to move to west Houston was "Stay north of Westheimer". Now, though, as gentrification prospers in other parts of town, it's opposite, poverty concentration, has been creeping into west Houston, especially the old apartment complexes just outside the beltway. Now the general wisdom may well be "Stay west of Kirkwood," correct? With all the armchair and actual realtors and planners on here, has anyone looked into their crystal ball and predicted what the west side will be like 20-30 years from now, specifically between Westheimer and the beltway. Will single family properties hold their value?

Society as a whole is improving from a crime perspective, and while theirs's been an increase in more recent years, the overall trend has been a precipitous drop in crime, likely due to cultural factors, but also factors like lower birth rates, older population's and advances in technology that mean's it's increasingly harder to be a criminal that isn't online.

So while areas may decline in the modern era, the chances they decline to the point of Alief, Cypress Station or Greenspoint did is basically impossible. This is even more unlikely in a fast-growing and increasingly dynamic city like Houston, more than likely is the area isn't as nice as it used to be, but stays relatively wealthy.

I would even put money that in 20 years, with the median age of Houston being close to 40, crime rate may even decline a decent amount.

[gwarnecke]

Assuming that you're referring to the neighborhoods bounded by Westheimer, Buffalo Bayou, The Beltway, and ~Dairy Ashford? If so, I'd point out that there are closer-in parts of Houston that are gentrified/gentrifying, which 20-30 years ago looked far worse than these neighborhoods. Most of these neighborhoods appear clean and well-maintained, with homes selling in the $400k+ range. Schools are hit and miss but I understand that nearby private schools (Grace Presbyterian, Awty, Village School) are popular with area residents. Especially for single-child households, the math for going private and saving $400k+ vs a SBISD-zoned house can work out.

IMO what would really elevate that area would be a revitalization of the Westchase and Energy Corridor business districts (+ continued return-to-office). These neighborhoods offer a 5-10 minute commute to these areas and are reasonably close to the Galleria as well. Question is - will this ever happen? Houston has a glut of office space and will for the foreseeable future, and while both Westchase and the EC have lots of square footage available, it's mostly in 1980s-era buildings.

Regarding the apartments in that area - they're definitely not the greatest, but are they really worse than they were post-Katrina? FWIW, it looks like a few of them along Briar Forest drive have recently enjoyed some nice renovations.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

Society as a whole is improving from a crime perspective, and while theirs's been an increase in more recent years, the overall trend has been a precipitous drop in crime, likely due to cultural factors, but also factors like lower birth rates, older population's and advances in technology that mean's it's increasingly harder to be a criminal that isn't online.

So while areas may decline in the modern era, the chances they decline to the point of Alief, Cypress Station or Greenspoint did is basically impossible. This is even more unlikely in a fast-growing and increasingly dynamic city like Houston, more than likely is the area isn't as nice as it used to be, but stays relatively wealthy.

I would even put money that in 20 years, with the median age of Houston being close to 40, crime rate may even decline a decent amount.

I generally agree with this. While I haven't run any data / stats, I don't sense that there's any drop or even stagnation of single family property values north of Westheimer south of Buffalo Bayou. Rents at the newer apartments (Eldridge corridor) remain elevated, and I don't sense significant disinvestment in the older properties, though I haven't really examined the most problematic ones around Kirkwood.

The area has so much going for it in terms of regional location, as well as its own assets. Proximity to employment and retail in CityCentre / Memorial City, Westchase, and the Energy Corridor (despite its recent woes) really appeals to folks who still have to deal with some commute - let's face it, the rush hour drive from much of Katy still sucks a lot, especially the western parts of Katy. Plus access into the core of the City is relatively decent by regional standards. The area can be a pretty reasonable place for younger folks buying their first home, if they don't mind updating 1960s-80s era stuff.

There's also been infill single family development, often fairly high-density, which indicates market strength. For example, townhouses are going in on the old Rotisserie for Beef & Bird site on Wilcrest. Hopefully old retail strip centers will get some sprucing up.

Plus the area is probably the most ethnically diverse in Houston, which is saying a lot. Having appeal across most major society groups is generally a good thing market-wise.