Is America's suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare? (Houston, Sugar Land: city hall, condo)

[SkyeAnjel]

a new escalade tstone I'm so jealous! I am paying almost 100.00 per tank in my 2001 lincoln navigator!
I believe people live where they are most comfortable. I am a suburban girl but now that the kids have gotten big, I am pretty bored yet don't want tomove to the city. Maybe tikki island for me! Lake Conroe? Who knows..

[EasilyAmused]

Originally Posted by tstone

I also agree with modster. I'm not giving up Clear Lake Houston for something in the loop. The density there is too much for a true Texas boy to handle. And anyway, my house, a new Escalade's payments + the gas is still cheaper than if I bought the same 2200 sq ft + quarter acre close to work (i.e. Uptown). The driving doesn't bother me nearly as much as some people in here. I do 180 miles/day after all and it's worth it. And this area is great for singles, DINKs and the kids. I have faith that we will continue to price out the riff raff and keep this part of outer City of Houston desirable.

TSTONE!! And you were making fun of my ML? LOL. Welcome to the club.

[tstone]

DIdn't say "my" Escalade payment, I said "a." Sorry I wasn't very clear. It sure is tempting though. The new commercial reached out to me by emphasizing importance of comfort in a commute. And maybe I'll be as cool as that guy on TV, too...

I make fun of the ML because it's a Tuscaloosa, Alabama Benz. The pre-'05 models are some of the junkiest cars ever made for that time frame, but the '05+ are definitely better. Anyway if you need a Benz SUV, you gotta get the G class. Maybe I'll get one when I grow up.

[Houston456]

Gas prices wont change our plans to buy in 77459/77458. People live in suburbs for many reasons (as modster mentioned above), and they factored in the gas prices while taking that decision.

In the same tone, people chose to live inside the loop for some other reasons. I dont think those folks will pack up and move to the suburbs if gas is only $1.50

[chris_ut]

The whole argument is sort of counter intuitive. They are saying that middle and upper class people will move back into the city to avoid higher commute costs, but middle and upper class people aren't getting killed by an extra $200 a month in gas costs, it is lower class workers that can't afford that, so really it would be poorer people moving back into the city from the suburbs which is the opposite of what these articles forecast. I mean why would the suburbs turn into slums full of poor people if they were abandoned by middle class people who couldn't afford the drive. How are these poor people supposed to afford said drive?

[EasilyAmused]

Well there're a few that are moving back, but that's mostly because density is causing commute times to increase annually. But the upper middle class transfer person is now choosing between outer and inner burbs. Where as before they mostly chose outer.

Champions/1960 is the area that's more affordable for the middle to lower middle income worker. Boy has that area gone downhill over the past 20 years.

[modster]

Originally Posted by EasilyAmused

Well there're a few that are moving back, but that's mostly because density is causing commute times to increase annually. But the upper middle class transfer person is now choosing between outer and inner burbs. Where as before they mostly chose outer.

Champions/1960 is the area that's more affordable for the middle to lower middle income worker. Boy has that area gone downhill over the past 20 years.

Champions is most definitely not a lower middle income area. Yes, there are some skank apartments there, and you go just south of there on Veterans Memorial and it is rough territory. But I don't think people consider that area Champions.

I don't think the reality is as bad as a lot of people's perception. the subdivisions still seem relatively the same, (save a few um, "incidents" like the meth lab they found in a garage in Oak Creek Village and the shooting at a party recently in Olde Oaks).

Unfortunately it just takes a few bad apples and the reputation gets going, (deserved or not). The decline of the apartments around there, just like a lot of places, is what is driving the bus on the road down. Just this week they found a body in a dumpster off of Walters Road at one of the complexes.

The biggest obstacle for the section of 1960 that is in Spring ISD is the decline in popularity of that school district. Otherwise gas price increases could bode well for it since it is just that much closer in, still relatively safe, close to malls, and with nice houses. If the schools could/would shape up then it would negate the perceived necessity in a lot of suburban house buyers minds of going up to 2920 or the Woodlands.

[modster]

Originally Posted by chris_ut

The whole argument is sort of counter intuitive. They are saying that middle and upper class people will move back into the city to avoid higher commute costs, but middle and upper class people aren't getting killed by an extra $200 a month in gas costs, it is lower class workers that can't afford that, so really it would be poorer people moving back into the city from the suburbs which is the opposite of what these articles forecast. I mean why would the suburbs turn into slums full of poor people if they were abandoned by middle class people who couldn't afford the drive. How are these poor people supposed to afford said drive?

Yeah but poor people have been being taxed out, priced out, everything-out of closer in areas for the past couple of decades. Focusing just on Houston for example, Heights, Montrose, Garden Oaks, Rice Military, all of these areas were filled with lower-income people 20 years ago. Even a lot of Bellaire was lower income back 20 - 25 years ago. That's a lot of territory when you add it up. Look at all the shacks between Washington Ave and I-10 that are being replaced with three story townhomes. A lot of areas while not poor, were not that expensive to begin with, like Timbergrove Manor, but are now sporting new constructions with 7-digit price tags. When you start adding in all the areas just on the west side of the inner loop where gentrification has caused a lot of displacement, you have a lot of areas where poor folks can't afford to live anymore.

Is it practical for the poor to buy far out with high gas prices? Of course not, but the practical aspects won't enter into it. It will happen anyway on some level.

[usc619]

Here's a good read from the wall street journal. The End of White Flight - WSJ.com

[AK123]

Originally Posted by Houston456

Gas prices wont change our plans to buy in 77459/77458.

Yes, I actually think some suburbs will be mostly immune to this. 77459 (which is western Missouri City) being one of them. Same goes for centrally located areas of Sugar Land, Clear Lake, west Memorial, the Woodlands. Because these all have a decent job base and almost everything else you could want already right there. I can attest myself, 77459 is a great area because it's right between Sugar Land and Houston... when I was working in the Medical Center, my drive from this area up Hwy 90 to the South Fannin park-and-ride (to use the rail) was not bad at all. There's also a park-and-ride off Hwy 59 and W Belfort. The subdivsions in that zip that are part of First Colony (which extends from Sugar Land) I think are some of the best in the area.