Houston economy and housing prices (Vega, Detroit: foreclosures, mortgage, credit card)

[latetotheparty]

ding ding ding ding..... topaz wins the prize.....

holidays + kids being in school makes the prospect of a move less appealing..... early spring is when the market picks back up and by late spring to early summer it is at its busiest.......

[Supermac34]

This is historically the slowest time of the year for home sales anyways.

[CarmineSantucciorellicuci]

If you can stick it out, this are going to get MUCH better in the near future. Check this out: 600K new net jobs.
Opportunity Houston | Greater Houston Partnership

Originally Posted by Jesse69

Here part of an email back to me from my brother about the job market in Houston -

The cheap gas, err cheaper crude oil is of course the problem. I knew that. I know that when crude oil drops below $80/bbl the most expensive oil projects stop dead. The next price point was $75, then $60 when other major projects stop. And when they stop, everything literally stops – purchase orders get cancelled with penalties, contractors get laid off, and the construction site is mothballed and shutdown. But engineering only work might continue until all the engineering design gets done. And now that the engineering has more time, it will get done more correctly and get better designed. The LAST price point when everything in oil and gas stops is when crude drops below $40-$50/bbl. If that happens, all new refinery projects will stop.

And NASA work has slowed down too. I guess my time in Houston is up unless Hydril hires me at $70K / yr.

[househunter2008]

The economy seems to be getting worse every day and the oil is going to soon reach below $50/barrel.

This could hit Houston economy quite a bit and could mean softening of housing prices.

So, I am thinking of postponing my house purchase by at least couple of months unless I get a very good discount. Not sure if this is right.

I am looking for advice/comments and thanks in advance.

[starkeshia]

Originally Posted by househunter2008

The economy seems to be getting worse every day and the oil is going to soon reach below $50/barrel.

This could hit Houston economy quite a bit and could mean softening of housing prices.

So, I am thinking of postponing my house purchase by at least couple of months unless I get a very good discount. Not sure if this is right.

I am looking for advice/comments and thanks in advance.

On the question of owning versus renting, do you have a preference either way? If you prefer to own and are fairly certain that you will own the home for 5+ years then just go ahead and buy it. It won't make that much difference in the long run. If you think you may be moving in less than 5 years then hold off.

Nobody has a crystal ball. Nobody can predict the future. Timing your purchase to buy at the lowest possible price is an exercise in futility.

[jd433]

I am new here but I know that Houston has had some tough times in the past. Especially in the mid 80's oil bust.

Oil is at $60 a barrel now. In the 1990's oil was in the $20-$30 range and Houston saw a lot of prosperity then too.

I looked at the whole country before deciding to settle here in Houston and i do wonder sometimes if I made the right decision. If i didn't come here I would have gone to Dallas or Atlanta maybe.

After comming from Phoenix where the economy was strong the whole 10 years I lived there I wanted to make sure that the next place would be just as strong. Last year Houston was ranked #1 in total job growth, Population Growth and housing Starts. Then I looked at the strongest area of Houston and discovered that the Katy/Energy Corridor area was the strongest area of Houston. So far so good but now with the price of oil going down and a new president comming who is anti Oil Companies I am starting to worry.

Can anybody give an indepth view of the economic future of Houston and the Oil Companies on the west side??? Are we going to be O.K. when the country turns to electric cars and bio fuels? Is this going to be far worse than the collapse in the 80's? Are we going to end up like Detroit without the Oil Industry??? I mean how bearish are you guys? Does anyone have perspective?? My goodness they have several towers under construction along the Katy Freeway that are for oil related industries.

[Mom2Feebs]

Originally Posted by househunter2008

The economy seems to be getting worse every day and the oil is going to soon reach below $50/barrel.

This could hit Houston economy quite a bit and could mean softening of housing prices.

So, I am thinking of postponing my house purchase by at least couple of months unless I get a very good discount. Not sure if this is right.

I am looking for advice/comments and thanks in advance.

What exactly are you wanting to move here for?

[starkeshia]

Originally Posted by jd433

Can anybody give an indepth view of the economic future of Houston and the Oil Companies on the west side??? Are we going to be O.K. when the country turns to electric cars and bio fuels? Is this going to be far worse than the collapse in the 80's? Are we going to end up like Detroit without the Oil Industry??? I mean how bearish are you guys? Does anyone have perspective?? My goodness they have several towers under construction along the Katy Freeway that are for oil related industries.

All the projections point to robust growth for at least the next decade but they're just guesses...educated ones, but guesses nonetheless.

As far as what the future holds, that's anybody's guess....I see three possible scenarios playing out:

If alternative energy developments continue at the same pace they have been moving at for the last umpteen years (slowly) then we have little to worry about since the big energy firms here in town can slowly transition to doing business in the area of alternatives as the years progress. Nevertheless, we will probably feel some slight pain decades down the road.

If somebody comes up with an alternative energy "magic bullet" that will change the energy landscape in a dramatic and rapid fashion over the course of just a few years then we're headed for some serious pain here in Houston. The major energy players here in town just won't have time to react. Large corporations move S-L-O-W.

If no alternatives are found then we're in for a TREMENDOUS boom as the price of oil rockets upward. That boom will be followed by the collapse of civilization as we know it when we finally run out of oil for good. Isn't THAT a charming scenario?

[househunter2008]

Good discussion guys.... this was the kind of discussion I was hoping for when I opened the thread...

We are currently renting and both of us work in downtown. We are seriously considering to buy a home in Cinco Ranch as we like it a lot. But, my concern is it is too much dependent on energy industry and I thought that is kind of risky if energy industry goes down for any reason as described by the previous posters.

Some analysts are even predicting $20/barrel oil. If that happens, I think it will have adverse impacts on Houston .... hope oil industry is not next in line for the bailout.

[usc619]

This could be the start

KBR delays project in Katy indefinitely | Katy News | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

KBR delays project in Katy indefinitely
By HELEN ERIKSEN CHRONICLE CORRESPONDENT
Nov. 4, 2008, 2:33PMShare Print Email Del.icio.usDiggTechnoratiYahoo! BuzzKBR’s plans to build a new headquarters in the Katy area are on hold indefinitely, a spokeswoman for the global engineering, construction and services company said on Nov. 3.

“Construction on KBR’s West Campus has been delayed due to current financial market conditions,” said spokeswoman Heather Browne.

“Our commitment to build a west Houston office remains, however, no further decisions on the campus will be made until these market conditions improve,” she said.

KBR, formerly Kellogg, Brown and Root, energized the local business community with a May announcement that it would build a large complex in the Katy area at the southwest corner of Interstate 10 and the Grand Parkway.

The new headquarters, which would house 4,500 employees, was touted to have a strong corporate and economic impact on the west Houston area.

The 910,000-square-feet project would include several low-rise buildings and was expected to break ground later this year.

Construction was anticipated to near completion in 2010.

Lance LaCour, president and chief executive officer of the Katy Area Economic Development Council, worked closely with KBR to negotiate details of the project.

On Nov. 3, he said he is optimistic about the project’s future.

“Of course, we would like to proceed with the same timeline but we understand the company’s position,” LaCour said. “We feel the project will happen.”

Meanwhile, the Houston-based company has said even with the Katy-area campus it would maintain its downtown presence.

KBR has corporate offices at 601 Jefferson St. The company also has offices at 500 Jefferson St. and 410 Clinton Drive.

KBR said in late October that the global economic slowdown has not had a significant impact on its business operations, but some projects would be delayed.

Officials could not say when construction would commence on the Katy area complex.

According to financial reports, KBR’s third-quarter profits increased by 35 percent with net income rising to $85 million, or 51 cents per share, in the three months ending Sept. 30. This compares to $63 million, or 37 cents, a year ago.

helen.eriksen@chron.com