Housing Shortage and Traffic in 2 years

[SteveArmy]

Originally Posted by hsw

Need to consider a few things...

Suspect smart employers (and workers) in Hou will sort out the whole office space, commute, traffic, housing thing on own....those who are affluent will live nr their offices and have short commutes; those who are less well-paid svc workers (clerical, retail, etc) will live further away but their time is less valuable even if stuck in traffic on fwys out in Podunk....this is the traffic model in SV, NYC and LA where highest earners often have rather mellow <20min drives to office

actually the rich folks in NYC lives in NJ, PA, CT, Upstate NY, and long island and take the trains

[crbcrbrgv]

There are so many areas inside the loop that are still considered not so nice that have so much gentrification potential, I don't see how there can be a housing shortage. Also, Houston seems to have more lower-income apartments in middle class and above neighborhoods than most cities. For example, there is lower income apartments all up and down Memorial between Eldridge and Kirkwood. These kinds of instances occur all over the city.

[EasilyAmused]

Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv

For example, there is lower income apartments all up and down Memorial between Eldridge and Kirkwood. These kinds of instances occur all over the city.

Like I said before, service people have to have somewhere to live. Either learn to live with them (like Memorial/Tanglewood/River Oaks has) or run farther away and have no, or extremely pricey,service.

[cheryjohns]

Originally Posted by crbcrbrgv

There are so many areas inside the loop that are still considered not so nice that have so much gentrification potential, I don't see how there can be a housing shortage.

Adding a couple of million people would tend to do it. That is what they are predicting. That many people could buy every condo, townhome, house, high-rise on the market - fill up every apartment vacancy - and still have 1.75 million people who have no where to live.

[SteveArmy]

yyyyah. what about jobs, it will run out too. Many of the ones enjoying a well off life will start to compete and downgrade their lifestyle

[ElectroPlumber]

Originally Posted by cheryjohns

I keep hearing about how Texas, with a lot of emphasis on Houston especially, being the place to move to from other parts of the country NOT doing so well. (In other words, the rest of the United States). I also keep hearing how that information being broadcasted has increased the steady number of people actually coming here. Texas will probably replace Florida as the retirement center, due to living costs and medical. Have you noticed our medical industry reving up? Also, the expansion of the Panama Canal is expected to be finished by 2014, resulting in an expansion of the shipping industry here, especially from China.

Add to that the fact that new construction has greatly been reduced. Some builders, such as Royce, have gone belly-up.

Here are my concerns: #1) Traffic in a city where the infrastructure will be at capacity and beyond. Damn, there goes another I-45 expansion.

#2) Housing shortage. Although it seems hard to believe at this point, what will another million (or two) people do for housing and will property values sky-rocket? Especially if construction lags behind, as it no doubt will.

We have almost 34,000 homes for sale now. Sounds like a lot, doesn't it? Normally, Houston's inventory is closer to $40,000. It was higher than it is now even before we had the foreclosure wave.

Any thoughts?

Yes, you are right. I was born and lived in Houston for 45 years, now living on the left coast. I have been following the developments in the City and have exactly the concerns that you raise. We have thought about moving back, but I'm concerned about what Houston will look like 5 - 10 years from now. I don't really want to live in the City that you are describing.

The lure of jobs can be overwhelming to people who are coming from a depressed area. There are so many people in Nor-Cal that talk about moving to Houston because the unemployment rate here is 12%. However, at what point does the advantage of a good labor market become outweighed by what you have to put up with?

At some point, there will be a tipping point--too many people in Houston for too few jobs and housing. The commutes will be longer and longer as people (who are able to) move farther out to get quality housing. Driving an hour or two hours to get to work does not sound attractive to me.

There is also the problem that I think will eventually occur of having both high property taxes and high home prices to the extent that only the very wealthy will be able to both buy a home and pay the property taxes. At that point, Texas will probably have to change its taxing structure to take the pressure off of property taxes.

[karuna95]

Cheryjohns - you may be interested in attending the Texas Economic and Demographic Association's (http://www.teda.org/calendar.htm - broken link) monthly seminars (great food, great presenters, convenient access!) Some topics this year:

10/15/09: "The future of downtown Houston"
11/19/09: "Cradle to career: A new way of thinking about Houston's economic future"
2/18/10: "Immigration and Houston's changing racial/ethnic mix"
4/22/10: "The Houston Area Survey: Newest findings from the newest 29th annual survey"
6/17/10: "The economic outlook for Houston"

[AK123]

Originally Posted by karuna95

Texas Economic and Demographic Association (http://www.teda.org/calendar.htm - broken link)

Interesting reads at this link... thanks for posting.

[Malvie]

Re: gentrification of inner-city areas---you're already seeing it. My office is in the 5th Ward (contractor for HISD). One of the ladies who works for me is a lifelong resident. She says that the investors are very quietly buying property there as it comes on the market. My office---in a bombed-out old school---has a skyline view that people in Montrose, Upper Kirby, and Uptown pay literally hundreds of thousands for---and I can be at, say, the Rice Hotel in 5 minutes.

As the city expands, without making provision for mass transit (there's a fascinating article in today's Chronicle, an interview with the outgoing chief of Metro, (link) which indicates that Houston (unlike Dallas) received NO Federal matching funds (because Tom DeLay blocked them) to build its rail system, and that money from the taxes voted by the citizens was diverted from rail to roads), the commutes are going to become awful. More and more people, though, will telecommute, as was pointed out.

I agree completely with the poster who pointed out that the service people have to live SOMEWHERE. They can't afford $100 a week (what it costs me) to commute ($50 for gas, $50 for wear and tear, maintenance, oil changes, etc), and there's no reliable mass transit for them. I live in an area which was built in 1978. There are apartment complexes on the corners of almost every major intersection; some decent, some not so. It's the same anywhere you go in Houston (when I first moved back, I looked at some apartments in the Galleria area--walking distance, in fact, from the Galleria--that were total slums). You just learn to live with it. When I lived in Manhattan, you'd walk out the door of your fantastically expensive apartment and join the rest of humanity on the street and in the subway. Jackie O had a fabulous full-floor apartment on 5th Avenue across from the Met---and had window unit air conditioning and bums walking in front.

I think Houston will double AGAIN in the next 5-10 years, and I think that's a good thing.

[AK123]

If there is indeed an upcoming housing shortage, perhaps some good could of it. A hopeful scenario might be the land inside the Beltway and readily accessible to Houston's employment centers will become much more valuable, so that it would make sense for landowners of the blocks upon blocks of the crummiest apartments (i.e. Sharpstown area, Gulfton, etc.) are mowed down and turned into single-family developments. It might be on small lots, garden homes, or even like what's pictured here, but if the ratio of homeowners to renters in these areas were to improve, the whole area would probably improve as well.