Why no non-stop flights to China? (Houston, Dallas: pricing, delivery, business)

[elnina]

irishlover: right! Newark (EWR) is a nightmare!!!
When I make an reservation for my overseas flights, I make sure that I would not change planes there!

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

Originally Posted by Wolfpacker

A few reasons:

1) The current U.S.-China flight agreement restricts the number of non-stop flights to China the U.S. government can grant to U.S. airlines each year. I think going into 2008, the U.S. was only allowed to award one or two flights a year. Back in 2007, the U.S. and China agrees to double the number of flights. New deal: U.S.-China flights to double by 2012 - USATODAY.com

Because of the restrictions, the DOT usually awards the flights to certain markets and airlines. Because Continental (the likely choice to do a flight out of Houston) has gotten service to Beijing and Shanghai out of its Newark hub, they likely had to wait to allow other carriers who don't have two flights to get their flights. Also, airlines will make sure they can generate the maximum revenues of these flights since they have such restrictions.

2) Flights, international ones, are profitable from yields (the amount of money airline makes on each passenger for every mile), not load numbers (passenger of %). Basically, it's amount of business passengers (the guys and girls flying in first and business class and not on upgraded tickets) is what will determine the success of a route. I believe the CEO of Cathay Pacific has said that it takes about 20 economy class passengers to cover the revenue that 1 first class passenger generates (from NY to Hong Kong). Bottom line, you could have a full economy class, but if you don't have strong numbers in the premium classes, it won't work.

I do believe that the longer the flight, the harder it is to make it profitable. Hopefully the 787s will help make it easier.

3) South Korea and the U.S. have an open skies agreement. Plus, Korean Air has a great hub and route system in Seoul to connect its passengers.

4) I believe all North America-Asia flights fly up and over the North Pole (Great Circle route). It isn't a straight shot from Houston-to-China like you would think.

(I do think CO could do a Houston-China flight successfully).

Your first point is correct, however there are so many unused China frequencies that CO could fly IAH-PVG/PEK by the end of March if they wanted to. CO isnt rushing to it because if they flew from Houston to China right now, the flight would lose lots of money.

The real problem is that yields to China right now are horrible! Thats why no one is really interested. The one exception to the rule is Delta's new flights from Detroit to Shanghai which have been very successful. By contrast Delta tried to fly Atlanta-Shanghai and the flight was a huge failure.

Houston-China isnt out of the question, but I doubt we will see it in the next 3-5 years.

[Wolfpacker]

Originally Posted by LAnative10

Your first point is correct, however there are so many unused China frequencies that CO could fly IAH-PVG/PEK by the end of March if they wanted to. CO isnt rushing to it because if they flew from Houston to China right now, the flight would lose lots of money.

The real problem is that yields to China right now are horrible! Thats why no one is really interested. The one exception to the rule is Delta's new flights from Detroit to Shanghai which have been very successful. By contrast Delta tried to fly Atlanta-Shanghai and the flight was a huge failure.

Houston-China isnt out of the question, but I doubt we will see it in the next 3-5 years.

I do agree you on the frequency point. The market tanked and has made US-China flights tough to operate. Airlines are just trying to survive.

I believe American Airlines tried to get approval for a DFW-Beijing flight, but the pilot unions said no.

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

Originally Posted by Wolfpacker

I do agree you on the frequency point. The market tanked and has made US-China flights tough to operate. Airlines are just trying to survive.

I believe American Airlines tried to get approval for a DFW-Beijing flight, but the pilot unions said no.

They did indeed. They had a good chance of getting it, but it might of been a blessing in disguise. It might not have lasted past the economic bust that China went through in 2007.

As I mentioned earlier, the only new China flights that have been successful have been Delta's Detroit-Shanghai and the big reason is because of Detroits perfect geographic locale to feed the Northeast, South, and Florida from Asia.

Right now, what Texas has to Asia is:

from Houston:
One daily nonstop flight to Tokyo on Continental
5 weekly flights from Houston to Singapore via Moscow

from DFW:
Two daily nonstop flights Tokyo on American
4x weekly nonstop flights to Seoul on Korean Air

For now, I think thats going to have to do for Texas-Asia service.

[Oildog]

I thought it was the Chinese government who limited the air traffic into their country. I would expect Houston to gain access sometime soon.

It is strange that we flew over Alaska when I went to Asia.

[zhugeliang1]

irishlover do you go to China often for business or what? I'd like to see Houston to China direct flights too.

I think they fly around Alaska then down to Asia because the curve of the earth over the Pacific would make a longer flight, more distance.

[Cowboys fan in Houston]

Originally Posted by Oildog

I thought it was the Chinese government who limited the air traffic into their country. I would expect Houston to gain access sometime soon.

It is strange that we flew over Alaska when I went to Asia.

Yes, but as I said in my last post is that there are so many unused frequencies to China that anyone who wants them can have them now (at least 21 weekly). If CO wanted them for Houston-China flights, they could have them now.

If CO wanted to fly Houston-China, there is nothing in the world from stopping them.

[professorsenator]

The flight track from Houston to Beijing would look like this (http://tinyurl.com/yl457ng - broken link). Very little of the flight would be over water.

[Wolfpacker]

Originally Posted by LAnative10

They did indeed. They had a good chance of getting it, but it might of been a blessing in disguise. It might not have lasted past the economic bust that China went through in 2007.

As I mentioned earlier, the only new China flights that have been successful have been Delta's Detroit-Shanghai and the big reason is because of Detroits perfect geographic locale to feed the Northeast, South, and Florida from Asia.

Right now, what Texas has to Asia is:

from Houston:
One daily nonstop flight to Tokyo on Continental
5 weekly flights from Houston to Singapore via Moscow

from DFW:
Two daily nonstop flights Tokyo on American
4x weekly nonstop flights to Seoul on Korean Air

For now, I think thats going to have to do for Texas-Asia service.

I agree with you. I think Korean Air has talked about the idea of Seoul-Houston service once they receive their 787s, but I'm sure the economy and the delay of the 787 aircraft has pushed this idea back for at least a little while.

[Wolfpacker]

Originally Posted by LAnative10

Yes, but as I said in my last post is that there are so many unused frequencies to China that anyone who wants them can have them now (at least 21 weekly). If CO wanted them for Houston-China flights, they could have them now.

If CO wanted to fly Houston-China, there is nothing in the world from stopping them.

Yeap. Seems like they can feed their passengers through Newark and new Star Alliance partner United to connect to China (LA, San Fran, Chicago, DC). Wouldn't make sense to divert that traffic in a slumming area.

Any idea on how CO is doing on it's Newark-China flights (Hong Kong included)?