7000+ people from BRAC are supposed to move to Huntsville in the next 3 years (Decatur: appointed, houses)

[chucksnee]

Redstone must fill 2,146 jobs (http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/4431074 - broken link)

Fairly new article.............

[GeorgiaTransplant]

Originally Posted by HB2HSV

OK, I apologize UP FRONT for those who are MATHEMATICALLY CHALLENGED

So the gov't has between 4,000 and 4,700 civil service jobs that's moving to Huntsville (who cares if the actual people come, the jobs are here and will just be filled by local people).

Let's take the low end estimate = 4,000 civil service jobs

We also know civil servants don't do anything , so for every civil service job we will need support contractors. Someone mentioned 1.5 support contractor jobs per every civil service job, let's go with that one

Therefore,

4,000 civil service jobs X 1.5 support contractor jobs/ civil service = 6,000 support contractor jobs

Total job openings = 4,000 + 6,000 = 10,000 jobs

BUT WAIT !!!

We also know for every person that moves into town, he/she will need to shop @ supermaket, eat @ restaurants, haircut, etc. According to the Huntsville Chamber of Commerce, it's approx 1.5 service jobs that's created for every job created in town

so... 10,000 jobs X 1.5 service jobs = 15,000 service jobs !

Now the # of TOTAL JOBS created in Huntsville as a result of BRAC move is then,


4,000 civil service jobs + 6,000 support contractor jobs + 15,000 consumer service jobs = 25,000 jobs !!!


Assuming there's an average of 3 people per houshold (now you have to admit that's a very low number)

Then the TOTAL number of people that's expected to move into Huntsville will be

25,000 jobs X 1 family/ job X 3 persons/family = 75,000 people !!!

Looks like KE is right on the ball !

That is actually a pretty solid breakout...and I can't fault that reasoning in computing total job impact of of BRAC (you clearly were)...wow, that is a lot.

Now I refer you to your original premise:

Originally Posted by HB2HSV

70000+ people from BRAC are supposed to move to Huntsville in the next 3 years

You see where that might cause some scratching of heads? You assert there will be 70,000 new people, moving, and imply they will need a place to live. Even if ALL the BRAC job fillers AND families are from outside the area, as another poster points out-the other (approximately) 40,000 (the oil changers, cashiers, restaurant workers, and plumbers that you are counting as 'BRAC jobs' and their families) are NOT going to be complete newcomers (some will, but definitely not all-as pointed out by A&M Bulldawg.

Those jobs will most likely be filled by locals, who will probably live right where they live now. That's what caused the rush the point out there was a slight flaw in your reasoning.

You can call us mathematically challenged. I think we're being realistic.

[jamesrobert01]

I don't know why anyone would get all excited about all the BRAC "relocations" to Huntsville. The writing is on the wall, folks. Defense will take a HUGE budgetary hit within the next 5 years.... the repurcussions will be staggering. I wouldn't be surprised if we see at least a 10% cut in DoD's budget in that time frame, maybe even as much as 15%. The rate at which money is being spent right now is unsustainable. Personnel is the largest chunk of the defense pie, and don't expect that to be cut TOO much..... plus, billions upon billions of that shrinking pie will be required just to replace much of the equipment that has been used up in Iraq and the 'stans. That is going to leave precious little for missile defense, which will not be a high-priority program come 2015.

[SouthernBoy205]

Worry about Atlanta not becoming the next Detroit. We know all about what's going on in Huntsville. There are other fields that are going to keep Huntsville growing, IF cuts are made and will affect Huntsville. Thanks!

[sk8t]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

Worry about Atlanta not becoming the next Detroit. We know all about what's going on in Huntsville. There are other fields that are going to keep Huntsville growing, IF cuts are made and will affect Huntsville. Thanks!

How is ATL going turn into Detroit? This makes no sense considering how diverse the economy is.

[jamesrobert01]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

We know all about what's going on in Huntsville.

YOU don't have a clue.... it's quite obvious from your posts.

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

There are other fields that are going to keep Huntsville growing

Really? Name them. MSFC? Pffffftt. Space & Rocket Center? LOL

You cannot change the fact that Huntsville was built and sustained by the Army. The glory days will be coming to an end, sooner rather than later. The Arsenal won't be going away, but the scope of the work done there will decrease dramatically. There is NO money. Period.

[jamesrobert01]

Originally Posted by A&M Bulldawg

Why are you coming on Huntsville's forum foreshadowing its future. Atlanta's glory days are nearing. So don't worry about Huntsville. Huntsville had the engineering field, which is growing fast. Also, the medical field is now growing. Technology is growing. Just worry about overrated Atlanta.

Sonny, I have lived and worked in Huntsville. The fact that I'm living in ATL is irrelevant. We are talking about HSV here. Huntsville is, for it's size, the most one-dimensional city that I know of. The technology that is there is vastly military-related; when the military pulls back, so will the tech firms.

You want to come onto this board and pimp Huntsville, from your perspective of inexperienced exuberance, then go right ahead. Personally, I think you'd benefit by losing the rose-colored glasses and taking a job in another city for a while. When you've been around the block a few times, as I have, and have learned to read the tea leaves, then you'll have a more balanced perspective as to what is going on around you.

JR

[Want2MoveWest]

Originally Posted by DvlsAdvc8

.......

What's with all the bitterness and sarcasm in this thread anyway?

btw - No where is experiencing explosive growth right now. Huntsville is still a very good place to be.

Some cities are experiencing explosive growth even in this economy. Just not Huntsville....

Hehe, some more sarcasm. But true.

[HB2HSV]

Originally Posted by GeorgiaTransplant

You see where that might cause some scratching of heads? You assert there will be 70,000 new people, moving, and imply they will need a place to live. Even if ALL the BRAC job fillers AND families are from outside the area, as another poster points out-the other (approximately) 40,000 (the oil changers, cashiers, restaurant workers, and plumbers that you are counting as 'BRAC jobs' and their families) are NOT going to be complete newcomers (some will, but definitely not all-as pointed out by A&M Bulldawg.

Those jobs will most likely be filled by locals, who will probably live right where they live now. That's what caused the rush the point out there was a slight flaw in your reasoning.

You can call us mathematically challenged. I think we're being realistic.

I did not assert anything. You are interpreting the way you want to interpret. What I was pointing out was that there's a way to get an additional 75,000 people in here as a result of BRAC move. I did not put a timeline in, nor do I specify whether these will be ALL new out-of-towners, local people, etc.

Now you're spliting hair on what the number of jobs & their families mean? Where will they come from? Listen, if I have such crystal ball, I would apply it in my stock market investment and I will not still be working today.

Looks like you're indeed mathematically challenged. You get so wrapped up in the numbers that you can not see the forest but only the leaves.

[phantomplan]

Originally Posted by jamesrobert01

Sonny, I have lived and worked in Huntsville. The fact that I'm living in ATL is irrelevant. We are talking about HSV here. Huntsville is, for it's size, the most one-dimensional city that I know of. The technology that is there is vastly military-related; when the military pulls back, so will the tech firms.

You want to come onto this board and pimp Huntsville, from your perspective of inexperienced exuberance, then go right ahead. Personally, I think you'd benefit by losing the rose-colored glasses and taking a job in another city for a while. When you've been around the block a few times, as I have, and have learned to read the tea leaves, then you'll have a more balanced perspective as to what is going on around you.
JR

There's no reason to be condescending toward people just because they disagree with you. There is no right or wrong in predicting the future, and you shouldn't trash someone just because they are optimistic, either.

Huntsville is heavily vested in military applications for sure, with some having a healthier future than others. The military will not be cutting unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technologies anytime soon (a lot of H'ville tech companies are involved in that). They won't cut these by much, if any, because these technologies produce a long-term cost savings of curbing the manned aircraft approach when possible. Nor will they cut much from the maintenance contracts for legacy ground and air vehicles. Cutting edge technologies (such as R&D SBIR projects trying to go commercial) will have the hardest time. This will probably decrease the amount of new R&D start ups unfortunately.

My point is that things won't slow down much here in Huntsville. Smart companies will adapt over time to support whatever the next big thing is. Okay you want us to quit working on missiles in the next five years? Lets put together a plan to get contracts related to electronic health records. (or whatever the next big thing is) People in government and commercial will always need tech-oriented products & services, and there will always be tech-savvy companies in our CRP to fill that need.

Moderator cut: leave national politics out of this