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Old 06-23-2021, 11:40 AM
 
3,465 posts, read 4,867,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
Madison County has had 35,718 cases (about 9% of the population) so far with 525 deaths. So about 35,200 survived and most likely are immune to the disease.

Madison County has a higher percentage of vaccinated people (I think about 42%) which is about 160,000. Add the 35,000 who are immune from having had the disease and you get about 195,000 or about 51% of the county. But there are quite a few kids under 12 running around, so the immune population that can be vaccinated at the time is pretty good - guessing 60%.

But that still leaves about 40%, or 150,000 who can pass the disease along. And it's highly contagious.

Assumed a county population of 380,000.

It's going to be interesting to see cases go when weather gets colder in late October and through the winter. I don't expect our percentage of vaccinations will go much higher than it is now, except for kids 6-12, which should be several thousand.
Well there is a little problem with the numbers you posted. The number of cases you listed are confirmed positive tested cases. Out of everyone I know that has had Covid, I would say around 10% of them actually got tested. I myself never got tested. How we all know for a fact that we had Covid is because we were exposed at the same time as an entire group of whom a few went and tested positive a few days later when everyone began getting sick. Some were directly exposed to someone who tested positive a few days later and then they themselves developed the symptoms and became sick a few days later. A couple of reasons some of us did not get tested is because it was early on over a year ago and there were not tests available. Some did not get tested because they knew they had it because they had been directly exposed and there is no treatment so what is the point of getting a test to confirm what you already know and potentially exposing others in the process of going to get tested? If I personally know around 30 to 40 people who had Covid but were never tested and you extrapolate that out, how many people and what percentage of the population does that represent? I know I cannot possibly be the only person that knows many people who were never tested.

The whole point is that the published confirmed cases really do not mean much. As for this winter and people spreading it around again, if they are worried about it they should go get vaccinated. I really don't think there is going to be a big deal though because right now people are congregating in large groups at sporting events, bars, clubs, restaurants and concerts and we aren't seeing the big spike the media is dying to have.
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Old 06-23-2021, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Madison, Alabama
13,136 posts, read 9,697,002 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dijkstra View Post
Well there is a little problem with the numbers you posted. The number of cases you listed are confirmed positive tested cases. Out of everyone I know that has had Covid, I would say around 10% of them actually got tested. I myself never got tested. How we all know for a fact that we had Covid is because we were exposed at the same time as an entire group of whom a few went and tested positive a few days later when everyone began getting sick. Some were directly exposed to someone who tested positive a few days later and then they themselves developed the symptoms and became sick a few days later. A couple of reasons some of us did not get tested is because it was early on over a year ago and there were not tests available. Some did not get tested because they knew they had it because they had been directly exposed and there is no treatment so what is the point of getting a test to confirm what you already know and potentially exposing others in the process of going to get tested? If I personally know around 30 to 40 people who had Covid but were never tested and you extrapolate that out, how many people and what percentage of the population does that represent? I know I cannot possibly be the only person that knows many people who were never tested.

The whole point is that the published confirmed cases really do not mean much. As for this winter and people spreading it around again, if they are worried about it they should go get vaccinated. I really don't think there is going to be a big deal though because right now people are congregating in large groups at sporting events, bars, clubs, restaurants and concerts and we aren't seeing the big spike the media is dying to have.
Well - those numbers would be loose at best unless you and all the others you know who allegedly had Covid have been tested for antibodies. Have you?

I only personally know two people who were confirmed with Covid and both died. One was about 70, the other early 40s.
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Old 06-23-2021, 03:47 PM
 
3,465 posts, read 4,867,250 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
Well - those numbers would be loose at best unless you and all the others you know who allegedly had Covid have been tested for antibodies. Have you?

I only personally know two people who were confirmed with Covid and both died. One was about 70, the other early 40s.
Yes actually two of us that had Covid over a year ago were tested during routine annual blood work. We tested positive for antibodies. Which is no surprise since we have been directly exposed multiple times over the past year and never have gotten sick again.

I do not personally know anyone who died or even were hospitalized. Many of my family members and friends have had it along with many acquaintances.
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Old 06-24-2021, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Boonies of N. Alabama
3,881 posts, read 4,157,425 times
Reputation: 8157
I knew about 20-25 people that had confirmed covid. 3 died. My nephew's family all got covid 5 weeks after being fully vaccinated.
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