Future MDA, NASA, and military job loss (Huntsville, Madison: city hall, sales tax)

[DvlsAdvc8]

Originally Posted by phantomplan

Wow. I give up. If your mission was to show me you have a strong "dems can do no wrong" bias and back it up with misinformation then mission accomplished.

You're more than welcome to PM me a list of sources you've based your economic arguments on, I'd love to see where you're getting it from. I would at least encourage you to run your claims by factcheck.org or some other site that attempts to be unbiased.

I don't doubt you're well versed on economics, but you've purposely cherry picked extremely exaggerated predictions from bad, biased sources--especially regarding the bailout.

I was never making a case that Dems can do no wrong. What misinformation have I provided? Its an odd request to ask me to debunk myself. Which source is bad and biased? The Congressional Budget Office? That's where I got the 1.4 multiplier for the stimulus bill.

Since domestic politics often interferes with this discussion, how about a European example?

Fiscal Stimulus multiplier estimated to be ~1.5 among Eurozone New Member States, where it is estimated they would have experienced ~6% decline in GDP rather than the 3% they experienced if not for stimulus measures.
http://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/...tiplier_KS.pdf

Back in the US, I did a search of the literature analyzing the effect of the recovery act, here are the top results:

Positive http://www.nber.org/papers/w16759.pdf

Positive http://www.stanford.edu/~waw/papers/...__aug_2011.pdf

Positive http://www.frbsf.org/publications/ec.../wp10-17bk.pdf

Positive Stats about all US cities - real estate, relocation info, crime, house prices, cost of living, races, home value estimator, recent sales, income, photos, schools, maps, weather, neighborhoods, and more

Positive http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa...rra_report.pdf (this is the President's council of economic advisors though... I guess you can discount this one)

Positive http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/do...-Recession.pdf (this one mostly covers TARP and the financial rescue)

Mildly positive http://www.nber.org/papers/w16775.pdf

Neutral http://web.econ.ohio-state.edu/dupor/arra10_may11.pdf (this one lacks statistical significance... and in all honesty it looks like the authors were trying to discredit stimulus, but couldn't quite make it work with the numbers they had)

Neutral http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/JE...%20revised.pdf (ironically, while this guy suggests the stimulus failed, his numbers actually argue that he stimulus was too small lol)

Mildly negative http://weber.ucsd.edu/~vramey/research/NBER_Fiscal.pdf (neutral overall, but "I find that increases in government spending lower unemployment"... so positive at least in the human equation.)


The conservative arguments against stimulus are sound, public spending and borrowing crowds out private investment and can cause inflation and must be paid in the future. This is the basis for nearly every conservative attack on spending, and in a healthy economy, they're absolutely true. Its a different world in a demand suppressed economy however, or as economists call it - a liquidity trap. Its certainly easy to note that there was little to no inflation in 2009 and 2010... nor much since. When everyone is rushing to the safety of government bonds such that yields on bonds stay at historic lows even as debt piles up and our politics risks default, one can argue there's little or no crowding out happening... else the government would have to offer much higher yields to get people to buy them. Investors took the crappy yields because they didn't see any better investments and were in a "don't lose money" holding pattern. As for the "paying in the future", sure... but in the meantime GDP is lost that will never be recovered, and people suffer unnecessarily. By ending recessions sooner, it may be true that you cut into future growth a bit... but that's mitigated by inflation and the head start in GDP.


I welcome you to search the economic literature for yourself: Library of Economics and Liberty

I'm weird, this stuff geeks me out like football statistics (football-outsiders.com ftw) or horsepower/torque numbers, for everyone else I recommend some no-doze. If you're searching outside economics papers, be careful not to confuse ideological articles with actual economic study. I mean, Paul Krugman is a Nobel laureate economist with a blog I could quote almost every day, and some of his research is good... but without the research context, its just more ideological ranting. The funny thing is I've read so much of this stuff that you start to recognize a lot of the names, (Krugman, Romer, Ramey, DeLong), and its kind of a game to predict their conclusions based on previous work. Bias or evidence causing one to align a particular way? You'll want to look at Ramey's work... she's always negative on stimulus.

[Okie7597]

Hmmmm..... seems to me that the title of this thread USED to be " Future MDA, NASA, and military job loss". Has that somehow been changed to "Two Inconsiderate Dudes Publicly Arguing About Auto Bailouts Which Are Irrelevant To This Particular Forum"??? Seriously, people, give the rest of us a break from your boring jousts and take it somewhere else. To the politics forum, perhaps. Or just exchange IMs.

[GreggT]

Originally Posted by Okie7597

Hmmmm..... seems to me that the title of this thread USED to be " Future MDA, NASA, and military job loss". Has that somehow been changed to "Two Inconsiderate Dudes Publicly Arguing About Auto Bailouts Which Are Irrelevant To This Particular Forum"??? Seriously, people, give the rest of us a break from your boring jousts and take it somewhere else. To the politics forum, perhaps. Or just exchange IMs.

I totally agree, these two folks need to take it private

[phantomplan]

Originally Posted by GreggT

I totally agree, these two folks need to take it private

Sorry guys, I'm done.

[Reactionary]

Wandering_Missourian - the idea of "peak oil" is so last century. The new Green River find alone contains many times more oil than has been used in human history. Then there's the Marcellus field, lots of oil in Canada, and so on.

[Reactionary]

Put me down as one who reads the discussion with interest - I do not agree with DvlsAdvc8 but his points are applicable to the broader concept of government under which we suffer (and which will result in future MDA / NASA / Military job loss).

[OmarLittle]

Originally Posted by Reactionary

Put me down as one who reads the discussion with interest

+1

The discussion is inevitably political, and while it may be boring for some, I agree with Reactionary (for probably the first time) that the points raised are "applicable to the broader concept of government under which we" benefit, and which have the potential for considerable local impact.

[Reactionary]

Here's a nice little briefing, 'SEQUESTRATION AND BUDGET CUTS SURVIVAL STRATEGIES FOR CONTRACTORS':

Sequestration Brief

Bottom line, even if sequestration is avoided, DoD will be in 'Debt Valley' for years.

[boomer]

SAIC announces a 700 job layoff.

SAIC announces about 15 job cuts in Huntsville as part of 700 worldwide | al.com

[tjkendrick]

Originally Posted by Reactionary

Here's a nice little briefing, 'SEQUESTRATION AND BUDGET CUTS SURVIVAL STRATEGIES FOR CONTRACTORS':

Sequestration Brief

Bottom line, even if sequestration is avoided, DoD will be in 'Debt Valley' for years.

That link didn't work for me...