Will Huntsville come out of recession better and quicker than the rest of the country? (contractor, salary)

[ionlife]

Originally Posted by mm42

I haven't seen a figure on that - where did that information come from?



I'm one of those experts.

Really? That's great--you should have job security in this field if you're helping the newbies out. I happen to know a few other experts as well. Fun.

[ionlife]

I got my info from another expert.

[mm42]

Originally Posted by dramamama

I got my info from another expert.

Your friend must be an expert in the black arts or reading tea leaves if he already knows what the ~1200 remaining DC MDA employees are going to do regarding the move. I doubt they themselves know yet.

MDA and the rest of DoD have been directed by Secretary Gates to grow the government workforce at the expense of contractors, so just guessing that might mean a 20% increase, MDA also needs to expand the Huntsville government workforce by, say, 800 people over the next few years.

1200 from DC plus 800 new positions means about 2000 new government positions for MDA in Huntsville over the next 2-4 years. If you think MDA is going to hire 2000 entry-level engineers for those spots, you are crazy.

[ionlife]

Originally Posted by mm42

Your friend must be an expert in the black arts or reading tea leaves if he already knows what the ~1200 remaining DC MDA employees are going to do regarding the move. I doubt they themselves know yet.

MDA and the rest of DoD have been directed by Secretary Gates to grow the government workforce at the expense of contractors, so just guessing that might mean a 20% increase, MDA also needs to expand the Huntsville government workforce by, say, 800 people over the next few years.

1200 from DC plus 800 new positions means about 2000 new government positions for MDA in Huntsville over the next 2-4 years. If you think MDA is going to hire 2000 entry-level engineers for those spots, you are crazy.

Haha... the expert I know doesn't have time to read tea leaves, perform the black arts or play around on forums because the expert I know is too busy working. And I trust this expert's judgment far more than an anonymous poster on a forum. The numbers aren't there -- and the new hires won't all be entry level engineers but they won't be making high dollars like the people expected to come here from DC.

However, to get back to the OP's original point of the thread: will Hville get out of the recession quicker than the rest of the nation? I say no for the following reasons:

1) BRAC/MDA expected numbers will not be the same as projected. Those coming will not make the same dollar amounts as the higher level people refusing to come here. In addition, those with the money who are here aren't spending a boatload of money because they are in the same boat as the rest of the nation due to the economy tanking. The trust levels aren't there. This brings me to--

2) People are not spending money they don't have because they don't know if they will have jobs tomorrow or the same income brackets tomorrow. They spend on what they need. Not a bad way to live IMHO. We wouldn't be in this mess if people had played by that rule all along and not overextended themselves,

3) Ergo, high end retailers aren't selling their products. Everywhere we go, businesses are failing, particularly retail and high end restaurants. Places like Walmart and Target are the new go-to shopping spots.

4) Parents have less money, ergo, teens have less money. When teens don't have money, they can't spend money on the high end ticket items they want to buy. I go to Bridge St. and I see very little bags walking out of Juicy Coutoure, Kate Spade, etc. Watch them close soon.

5) Colleges are very expensive and parents are scrambling to make up for college funds lost due to the economic meltdown last year. In-state tuition is with room and board is over 20K at Auburn and its not getting any lower any time soon. If parents have to choose between educating their children or buying them new cars, what do you think they'll choose. Less money out equals less chance of recovery.

6) The hidden costs that drive up our grocery bills all over the nation include smaller packages, same price. Or one less diaper in the diaper bag at Costco. Disposable income is not there to support a huge turnaround.

There. Does that answer the question? Now, time to go bake some cookies and hangout on the sofa watching soap operas.

[ionlife]

PS-- the contractors will become gov't workers... sheesh... couldn't resist that one...

[HB2HSV]

Well, if new college hires are able to replace senior, experienced engineers then the brave "...strategic, demographic adjustment move made by LTG O'Reilly..." will prove to be insightful and truly visionary.

It will also prove that MDA planning & integration role do not require experienced & seasoned engineers, and engineers are like fashion models to be replaced once reached an old age at 30.

Perhaps the prime contractor will need to step in and "fill the gap".

[ionlife]

Originally Posted by HB2HSV

Well, if new college hires are able to replace senior, experienced engineers then the brave "...strategic, demographic adjustment move made by LTG O'Reilly..." will prove to be insightful and truly visionary.

It will also prove that MDA planning & integration role do not require experienced & seasoned engineers, and engineers are like fashion models to be replaced once reached an old age at 30.

Perhaps the prime contractor will need to step in and "fill the gap".

hahaha.. LOL for that one

[mm42]

Sneer all you like - there is a looming crisis of aging in the aerospace and defense workforce, but I guess simply ignoring it is your solution?

By [2008], an estimated one-in-four U.S. aerospace workers will be eligible to retire; nearly one-in-three civilian scientific and technical workers in the Defense Dept. have already reached that milestone ... And the full impact of the graying workforce hasn't hit yet. In 2011, an 18-year-long wave of baby boomers will start collecting Social Security and Medicare benefits. ... "We need to go out and basically generate a new workforce of knowledge workers to replace those experienced people who are going out the door," says Clay Jones, president/CEO of Rockwell Collins.

Baby Boomer retirements could trigger A&D engineering crisis

[mm42]

Originally Posted by dramamama

PS-- the contractors will become gov't workers... sheesh... couldn't resist that one...

With your ability to perfectly predict the future, you should really be hitting it rich in Vegas.

I personally doubt that a large fraction of the contractors will convert to government jobs and accept the resulting pay cut and culture change, but I won't say it's a certainty.

The only true certainty is that if young engineers are not brought in to the aerospace and defense workforce in large numbers, there will be no one to mind the store in not so many years. What's your solution to the aging workforce if you think recruiting young engineers is the wrong answer?

[ionlife]

Originally Posted by mm42

With your ability to perfectly predict the future, you should really be hitting it rich in Vegas.

I personally doubt that a large fraction of the contractors will convert to government jobs and accept the resulting pay cut and culture change, but I won't say it's a certainty.

The only true certainty is that if young engineers are not brought in to the aerospace and defense workforce in large numbers, there will be no one to mind the store in not so many years. What's your solution to the aging workforce if you think recruiting young engineers is the wrong answer?

I never said that recruiting young engineers was wrong. I said they needed teaching and they weren't able to pay the top dollars for the mini mansions built here.

I also meant contractors who are currently working for MDA might have to be rehired as Gov't workers. Not much different than what happened during the Clinton admin. when gov't workers had to convert to contractors.

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