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Well I hate to always come on here talking about potential Tropical weather, but today we have 92L a large African Wave that reminiscent of when Hurricane Ivan or Hurricane Bill ('09) were first forming. So far this is probably the most impressive invest to date, and also has the highest development chances yet. The CMC/GEM models continue to develop this into a hurricane that will slice through the Lesser Antilles in the week to come, eventually impacting Puerto Rico and beyond. Meanwhile the UKMET, GFS and Nogaps indicate a weak Tropical Depression or TS will form but dissipate quickly. I tend to favor the GFS, NGAPS and UKMET because of shear associated with TUTT in the Caribbean. Anyways we will see how this plays out, but tonight this is really impressive and needs to be watched.
Hmm it seems nobody else has commented yet, well it appears this will now be the first storm of the season. NHC just bumped its outlook up to 60% (aka a code red), due to the fact that the diurnal max is approaching and shear is limited, this will likely become TD-1 or Alex by 2:00am EST, or 8:00am EST tomorrow. There is still a chance it won't develop, but given all the evidence it looks like it will. Stay Safe everyone, and watch the updates as they get nearer.
Well it dissipated when it got into an area of deep shear, it looked dead and now all of the sudden it popped back out of nowhere, even in 50kt of shear. Even if it doesn't develop this might be an omen for the year to come (yikes!). For a storm to come back from a 0% probability to a 20% probability in shear like this is pretty much unheard of.
Hmm it seems nobody else has commented yet, well it appears this will now be the first storm of the season. NHC just bumped its outlook up to 60% (aka a code red), due to the fact that the diurnal max is approaching and shear is limited, this will likely become TD-1 or Alex by 2:00am EST, or 8:00am EST tomorrow. There is still a chance it won't develop, but given all the evidence it looks like it will. Stay Safe everyone, and watch the updates as they get nearer.
I'll always read these types of threads in here, often am to lazy to put my input in
Well it dissipated when it got into an area of deep shear, it looked dead and now all of the sudden it popped back out of nowhere, even in 50kt of shear. Even if it doesn't develop this might be an omen for the year to come (yikes!). For a storm to come back from a 0% probability to a 20% probability in shear like this is pretty much unheard of.
And I read on Jeff Masters blog I believe that some sea surface temperatures are warmer now than they were all of last year.
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