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You guys must think im a complete nut job, because literally every single time I post about a possible tropical disturbance it fizzles (I might actually be a hurricane repellent ) but today I have another tropical disturbance to share with you all. 93L has been around for a couple of days now but it is really starting to show some signs of organization and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued. As it stands right now 93L is an area of 1008mb low pressure currently in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica, convection has been increasing at a pretty high rate over the past couple of hours and now most models are predicting a cyclone will form. There are noticeable differences in current models ranging from a hurricane striking Louisiana to a broad area of low pressure that never really forms. However most models do agree that anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle could see a tropical cyclone really within 80 hours, so be prepared and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
You guys must think im a complete nut job, because literally every single time I post about a possible tropical disturbance it fizzles (I might actually be a hurricane repellent ) but today I have another tropical disturbance to share with you all. 93L has been around for a couple of days now but it is really starting to show some signs of organization and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued. As it stands right now 93L is an area of 1008mb low pressure currently in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica, convection has been increasing at a pretty high rate over the past couple of hours and now most models are predicting a cyclone will form. There are noticeable differences in current models ranging from a hurricane striking Louisiana to a broad area of low pressure that never really forms. However most models do agree that anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle could see a tropical cyclone really within 80 hours, so be prepared and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
Then by all means, please, keep posting about these! The last thing we need with this oil is a storm.
So far my posting hasn't had an effect on this system, starting to look like the circulation is tightening... expect a TD by the 8:00 advisory, and hope that the Yucatan shreds this thing to bits. We don't need anything tropical in the Gulf!!
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Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
) but today I have another tropical disturbance to share with you all. 93L has been around for a couple of days now but it is really starting to show some signs of organization and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued. As it stands right now 93L is an area of 1008mb low pressure currently in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica, convection has been increasing at a pretty high rate over the past couple of hours and now most models are predicting a cyclone will form. There are noticeable differences in current models ranging from a hurricane striking Louisiana to a broad area of low pressure that never really forms. However most models do agree that anywhere from Texas to the Florida Panhandle could see a tropical cyclone really within 80 hours, so be prepared and keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
