95L apparently taking shape.. (days, storms, season, America)

[si33]

Looks like after watching several of the last storms merely tease the US east coast.. mostly from afar, Things could be in for a change as we close out the month.. A tropical wave now over the Lesser Antilles appears to need to be closely watched over the next several days..

Forecast models over the past several days have been hinting at something forming in the Caribbean..and are now beginning to catch on to what may become Matthew..

While not cause for alarm at this time,..several of the GFS runs 4-9 days out have been aiming a tropical system at Florida..with many of the more consistant runs ive looked over since Friday taking a liking to the east coast of the state..

More recently, a couple runs of the GFS are trying to latch on to more then one potential threat for the Caribbean..Im getting a hint that it may be time to start monitoring the models over the next two weeks or so..just a bit more often.

At this time, there are two or three possible scenerios..should this wave develop into an official disturbance..or a named storm..

The first takes the storm due west toward Central America..keeping it out of the NWestern Caribbean/GOMEX..

The next two that ive seen speculated on involve the position of a trof of low pressure which may or may not drop into the eastern US around the same time..

The timing and depth of this feature may aid in which direction a possible storm goes..either turning it more north or keeping it on a track away from Florida..or the majority of the Western Caribbean..

SSTs and upper level wind patterns are very favorable over this area so there isn't much to hinder potential development..

Currently, the NHC is giving this wave a 50% chance at continued development..

Again, at the moment, there is no need to sound any alarms..just careful and continued observation..It has already been a weird season..and one that seems to be full of surprises..Always be ahead of the storm..

[trlhiker]

Been watching this too. There is a chance of it intensifying and possibly taking aim at western Florida. Been way too soon to tell.

[si33]

Well folks, looking more and more like next week..and perhaps beyond, into the following week are set to become much more concerning for us here in FL; along the Central Gulf of Mexico coast..as well as along the East Coast..

95L has developed into Tropical Storm Matthew.and models continue to pull him north..beyond Sunday/Monday..under the influence of a trof of low pressure which is expected to start carving itself out over the eastern half of the US over the weekend..As well as an Upper Level low which is forecast to cut off over the west central South East around the same time..As id mentioned before, either one or both of these features could tug Matthew north into the GOMEX and into FL. or somewhere along the Gulf coast..sometime after Sunday..

Another curious feature appeares on a couple of the latest GFS model runs and that also may become an attention getter should it take shape.. Basically, as Matthew..(if he follows what the model runs are suggesting at the moment), heads up toward Georgia and the Ohio Valley, another critter forms somewhere below Cuba and seems to wabble around in the Gulf just west of S.W FL.

Id seen a similar feature appear on some of this past weekends model runs but it was further east and headed up the eastern seaboard just off the coast line..

In any event..Id closely follow the weatheer forecasts for the next week or so..and do go over any Hurricane preperations again, just in case...

The model runs..as intimidating as they might appear, are highly changable.. This past weekends runs were a great example of this with each run having difficulty handling the beginnings of what is now Matthew.. There are also a few current which still keep Matthew running due west into Honduras or the Yucatan..and completely avoiding a northward tug..so, for now at least, take them in stride..but do keep a closer eye on what is going on because everything seems to be coming together to aim more potential storm events toward the US..from the Caribbean and GOMEX. It is that time of season..and this year, these two areas are extremely volitile..and are ripe for trouble..

Also of note, there are some fairly vigerous waves currently in motion across Africa..and the GFS..and a couple other models are hinting at something starting up out there 8-10 days out..

Again, there is no cause for alarm right now..just keep up to date on what looks to be a quickly changing forecast picture going into next week..and again, be ready..as always..

[lagreeneyes03]

Well I had a business trip to FL cancelled for next week, by the folks that were bringing me in..if that tells ya anything...They said revisit in 30 days..

[cruxan]

we have been getting soaked here in the us vi..

[lcole07]

What are we looking for??

Track Tropical Depression Seventeen / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping

Larry - Hobe Sound, Fl