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Irene made landfall Saturday morning at Cape Lookout, N.C. — a bull's-eye in the field of weather forecasts. It hit where forecasters said it would and followed the track they had been warning about for days.
"People see that and assume we can predict everything," National Hurricane Center senior forecaster Richard Pasch said. But when Irene struck , the storm did not stick with the forecast's predicted major hurricane strength winds.
"It's frustrating when people take our forecasts verbatim and say, 'This is where it's going to be at this time and this is how strong it's going to be,'" Pasch said. "Because even though the track is good it's not certain."
I'm not blaming the forecasters, it's very difficult to predict where a hurricane will go, when it will make landfall, and when it will be downgraded (even though it made landfall as a Cat 1 in NYC, it was quickly downgraded afterwards, and very little damage or storm surge for NYC despite the massive mandatory evacuation), I'm blaming the media over hyping what was a rather weak hurricane (of course even weak hurricanes cause destruction). There's also no need for name calling, if you can't be respectful on an internet forum maybe you shouldn't be using it at all?
Also many of these fatalities could have easily been avoided if people weren't such curious buffoons and stayed indoors like they were told.
I'm not sure what all the arguing is about. Here's how I see it:
1. Weather forcasters estimated that Irene would hit at a particular strength, and it hit about 1 cat level lower. Not sure anyone can fault them for that because it was days in advance and these things happen.
2. Federal, state and city officials decided to take caution to protect people. Because they did so, less people died and there was likely less damage (especially to transit systems like NYC's). We don't know how it would have turned out if they hadn't, but I suspect it's similar to a runner training for a race; the race may have seemed easier, but wouldn't have if they hadn't trained.
3. Lots and lots of damage ensued with Irene. That's not to say it lived up to what the news and TWC claimed it would be, but it will be weeks before we know the real numbers. Accounts from Richmond, VA (who is no stranger to hurricanes) include trees ripping houses in half, hundreds of other trees down, electrical lines down/millions without power, less accounts of flooding than previous years (they've spent millions revamping drainage across the city after Isabel), and hundreds of calls to 911 reporting injuries, crashes, etc.
4. Irene's claim to fame was her size and slow approach. This was absolutely felt along the East Coast. We had two huge oak trees on our block fall and crush a car about 12 hours into the storm when a gust of about 50 - 60 mph came up. We experienced strong winds for a minimum of 14 - 16 hours.
All in all, our city and state felt well-prepared. Did TWC (along with the huge media conglomerates) hype things up beyond necessity? Yes. Do they always? Yes. This is why I don't watch the large enterprise media empire, and stick to public radio broadcasts, Weather Underground and other reputable sources. Those sources were saying to play it safe and to be prepared, but avoided the circus show that is American media. I don't believe any of our officials or volunteer services over-reacted to anything.
EDIT: If folks on here believe that someof the media hyped the storm fo ratings is the issue, I agree. Try reading Manufacturing Consent and you'll get a great perspective on the media's stronghold of the American Public. Everyone is responsible for trying to find accurate information if they want to be well-informed. The media circus can be ignored, or at least put into perspective.
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