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More and more this is getting quite dangerous. Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, Newport and Cape Cod really need to be prepared for something most have never seen before.
Only Hurricane Bob in 1991 comes close but this one is much bigger, could be more powerful and most likely far greater storm surge. Bob actually formed in the Bahamas while Irene will already be a monster by the time it gets there
This is EXACTLY what happened with Isabel before it hit our area.....they showed it hugging the coast and kept moving it west. Next thing we knew we had less than 24 hours to get read for a Cat 4 storm that was going to pass over us and we would be in the NE quadrant. Fortunately, by the time it approached DC as a Cat 2 and left as a weak Cat 1/TS. Even then, we took an 80 foot oak thru the roof.
...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE
HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST [my emphasis] OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
That little gem came from the NHC in its 5 AM EDT update. What it's saying is Irene will be caught in an atmospheric "rut" roughly following the U.S. eastern seaboard and will be dragged along with it clear up to Long Island where current projections have it running right on top of JFK international airport and Queens. Projected landfall will be around midnight Sunday/1 AM monday as a high end tropical storm. There may still be enough ooomph left to generate a few hurricane force gusts. Nothing anyone hasn't seen before.......
.....But the real t*rd in the punchbowl is the storm surge. Irene's effects are already being felt in the mid-Atlantic far away from the real action. Given a new moon with the timing of Irene's arrival on top of astronomical tides as high as any this month, coastal flooding is a virtual certainty.
Irene's a biggie and she will be pushing a tremendous amount of water ahead of her. With roughly 80 miles of Long Island blocking that water from going anywhere, it will pile up all along the south shore. On top of a +2 to +4 tide. If Irene continues as it is now expected, we could see a surge as much as 6 to 8 feet. I've been out on Fire Island, there ain't a whole lot of it higher than that.
I've been watching the reports...Acklins Island lost 90% of they're settlement in Lovely Bay. Much of Eleuthera has been forced to switch to generators, and they've shut down the power in most of the Bahamas? I don't know how true this is.
I live in SE PA and I'm very worried, we're supposed to get high winds and rain well over 6 inches now. If Irene maintains her present course? They said on the Weather Channel last night that NC's coast will be changed, and I can't imagine the Jersey Coast which is only 2 hours from us. I'm still hoping it veers out to sea? They said Millions will be out of power up and down the east coast? Major flooding, trees down and very high winds...starting in our area late Sat. Afternoon, but the worst will hit us all day Sunday.
So, we'll see, I heard they are evacuating Atlantic City? I don't know how true this is?
I'll admit, I'm scared! Might take a drive out to Weatern PA on Sat. Morning?
I cannot even imagine what the Jersey Shore is going to experience?
More and more this is getting quite dangerous. Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, Newport and Cape Cod really need to be prepared for something most have never seen before.
Only Hurricane Bob in 1991 comes close but this one is much bigger, could be more powerful and most likely far greater storm surge. Bob actually formed in the Bahamas while Irene will already be a monster by the time it gets there
Topped even by the 1938 storm that changed Fire Island forever... I am amazed at how far west NHC has moved the projected path of the eye since yesterday. Even a 50 mile shift will be dramatic as to where and how much damage is done. Folks need to understand Ike as a CAT 2 destroyed parts of Galveston but it was the storm surge that was even more devestating than the wind.
Katrina was weakend to a CAT 3 when it blew into the MS coast and the biggest damage there too was from storm surge near the coast. Andrew as a CAT 5 caused total destruction well over 5 miles inland from just the wind..
Also how hot the water temps well into the high 80's as far north as Virginia
I'm more worried about torrential rain than storm surge. Long Island has already gotten 7 inches of rain this month and lots like it will get another 6-8.
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