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Katia has been beaten down considerably by that upper low. The dry air to her north and west didn't hurt her nearly as much as the wind shear. Right now her northwest quadrant is being pulled apart and maximum sustained winds have dropped into the upper 60's. Further weakening is still possible but she will not fall out of the tropical storm force catagory.
The southwest flow around the upper low is generating 25 mile winds and while that doesn't sound like much there is a lot of cross sectional area Katia has to deal with; and deal with; and deal with. The upper low and the wind shear will be with her for the next day to day and a half.
But the upper low will eventually saunter away to the east while Katia sloggs west. From here on the conditions are much more favorable for further strengthening but now even hitting Cat 3 is a long shot.
The GFS has Katia passing uncomfortably close to the outer banks. Note though the scale on the map. She is still expected to miss her closest approach to the U.S. mainland by about 200 or so miles. If she grows large enough (not likely) Hatteras and Nag's Head will see some 40 - 50 or so mile (60+ kmph) sustained winds, a mean surf and some big rain but nowhere nearly the trauma Irene gave them. Right now her central pressure is a pedestrian 29.15 and at her worst, about the time she flirts with North Carolina, core pressure is expected to hit about 28.6 to 28.7. That's still pretty low but you're not going to keep Cat 3 status easily let alone see Cat 4 or higher with that.
The other models I checked also have her close to North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic but not close enough to grab the brass ring. The Global Ensemble has her center about 250 -275 miles from the Outer Banks and the North American keeps her 400 miles off. That's still a good deal closer than I would like and closer than I guessed only yesterday. The North American Ensemble, for reasons known only to itself, has her core pressure dropping no lower than 29.5. Odd, that.
I still don't think this one will be as large, as powerful or come as close as Irene but I also think everyone from about Charleston to Cape Cod should keep a "third eye" on her. She could turn unexpectedly yet...
Katia has been beaten down considerably by that upper low. The dry air to her north and west didn't hurt her nearly as much as the wind shear. Right now her northwest quadrant is being pulled apart and maximum sustained winds have dropped into the upper 60's. Further weakening is still possible but she will not fall out of the tropical storm force catagory.
The southwest flow around the upper low is generating 25 mile winds and while that doesn't sound like much there is a lot of cross sectional area Katia has to deal with; and deal with; and deal with. The upper low and the wind shear will be with her for the next day to day and a half.
But the upper low will eventually saunter away to the east while Katia sloggs west. From here on the conditions are much more favorable for further strengthening but now even hitting Cat 3 is a long shot.
The GFS has Katia passing uncomfortably close to the outer banks. Note though the scale on the map. She is still expected to miss her closest approach to the U.S. mainland by about 200 or so miles. If she grows large enough (not likely) Hatteras and Nag's Head will see some 40 - 50 or so mile (60+ kmph) sustained winds, a mean surf and some big rain but nowhere nearly the trauma Irene gave them. Right now her central pressure is a pedestrian 29.15 and at her worst, about the time she flirts with North Carolina, core pressure is expected to hit about 28.6 to 28.7. That's still pretty low but you're not going to keep Cat 3 status easily let alone see Cat 4 or higher with that.
The other models I checked also have her close to North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic but not close enough to grab the brass ring. The Global Ensemble has her center about 250 -275 miles from the Outer Banks and the North American keeps her 400 miles off. That's still a good deal closer than I would like and closer than I guessed only yesterday. The North American Ensemble, for reasons known only to itself, has her core pressure dropping no lower than 29.5. Odd, that.
I still don't think this one will be as large, as powerful or come as close as Irene but I also think everyone from about Charleston to Cape Cod should keep a "third eye" on her. She could turn unexpectedly yet...
Nothing is clear yet..with each passing run the GFS gets closer and closer... still should pass east but surely more uncertain now than it was a day ago..
Nothing is clear yet..with each passing run the GFS gets closer and closer... still should pass east but surely more uncertain now than it was a day ago..
I really like how you explain and describe these storms. Nice!
Thank you!
I think I got that from a book written by George R. Stewart, an English instructor at the University of California (Berkeley).
The title was "Storm" and it was written around 1941, if my memory serves me correctly. The book detailed an approaching giant of a Pacific storm whose impact on California would stretch from Los Angeles clear to the Oregon border. In it, a (very) young meterologist with a romantic streak working out of the San Francisco weather office tracked this monster from babyhood in the western Pacific until it made landfall as a full fledged mature extra-tropical cyclone several days later. He considered it "his" storm and ascribed many human-like characteristics to it. He even gave it a name, Maria.
Legend has it that shortly after World War II, the National Hurricane Center got the idea of naming tropical storms and hurricanes from Dr. Stewart's book but I don't know how true that is.
The book has become a classic. It is well written and an enjoyable read. It's no longer in print but copies of it can still be found in old book stores and libraries.
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