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Old 05-19-2012, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Indianapolis
3,894 posts, read 4,819,356 times
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now with Alberto formed before the Official start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season and record warmth for the past 12 months and record heat across the nation and northern Hemisphere do you think we could see a repeat of the 2005 record breaking Atlantic Hurricane season?
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Old 05-20-2012, 11:15 AM
 
2,490 posts, read 3,923,265 times
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No. The 2005 storm season was a historical fluke. Just because a storm forms early, doesn't mean it will be an active season. We've had plenty of pre-season storms and most of the seasons weren't that active.

Predictions show we'll have around 11 named storms with 5 or 6 hurricanes and 2 or 3 major ones. Which is about average.

Last edited by 90sman; 05-20-2012 at 11:30 AM..
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Old 05-20-2012, 11:29 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
556 posts, read 638,680 times
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Probably not, we already had two extremely active seasons in a row. I'm pretty sure this one will be average. In 2006, the first tropical storm, ironically also Alberto, formed on June 10, which is pretty early too, but of course that season only had 9 named storms.
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Old 05-20-2012, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Free From The Oppressive State
25,543 posts, read 18,751,136 times
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Of course not, I don't live in S. FL anymore!

I moved to S. FL in April of 2005. I got there in time for a "fluke".

I moved to New England last year. I got there in time for another "fluke", with hurricane Irene.

Apparently the weather follows me, so no, S FL is safe this year.



(All said in jest.)

S FL really does need a hurricane...not because people need to be injured, killed or lose everything, the nature in S FL, the Everglades, really NEEDS a hurricane, badly.
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,232 posts, read 57,639,511 times
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Using the years we went from a La Nina winter/spring or a slightly neutral winter/spring to an El Nino summer, I put together those years and the amount of tropical storms we had in the Atlantic.


Data is from 1950.


Data does not include depressions that never developed.


13 years we transitioned into El Nino summer. 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009.


• 3 of those years did not have a major hurricane. (68’,72’,86’)
• 9 of those years had only 4 or more hurricanes form.
• Only 1 of those 13 years had more than 10 tropical storms form. (2002)
• The average amount of tropical storms that formed per year is 7.85.
• 4.14 of those became hurricanes per year and on average 1.43 became major per year.


Landfalls within those years(4th Source)


Florida – 7 times
Louisiana – 6 times
Massachusetts – 1 time (Carrie, 1972)
Mississippi – 2 times
North Carolina – 2 times
New York -2 times (Agnes 1972, Bella 1976)
Texas – 5 times

Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/all-storms?StormName=ALL&State=ALL&Year=1951,1957,1963 ,1965,1968,1972,1976,1982,1986,1997,2002,2006,2009 &Category=ALL&Month=ALL&hurdatNumber=&searchInSear chParam=&currentSearchText=

Background is 2004 Satellite with Ivan bottom right and Frances over Florida
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Old 05-20-2012, 01:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,232 posts, read 57,639,511 times
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So only 7 storms formed and 4 became a hurricane on average.

Reason why forecasts have low confidence on an active season this year is the atmosphere is not condusive for development.

We'll see.
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Old 05-20-2012, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Indianapolis
3,894 posts, read 4,819,356 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Three Wolves In Snow View Post
Of course not, I don't live in S. FL anymore!

I moved to S. FL in April of 2005. I got there in time for a "fluke".

I moved to New England last year. I got there in time for another "fluke", with hurricane Irene.

Apparently the weather follows me, so no, S FL is safe this year.



(All said in jest.)

S FL really does need a hurricane...not because people need to be injured, killed or lose everything, the nature in S FL, the Everglades, really NEEDS a hurricane, badly.

Indiana doesnt have to deal with hurricanes or any risk associated with them most well get is the leftover rain which is beneficial sometimes
Keep that in mind if you need another place to relocate too.
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