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Old 07-31-2012, 06:30 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Finally "some" action (if you can call it that). With the Saharan Dust letting up we might be able to except some more activity now.

It was actually amazing to see a wide area of Dust that traveled all the way from Africa to Florida. Dense Saharan Dust Travels About 5,000 Miles to Florida

Invest 99L
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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Old 07-31-2012, 06:39 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Default Saharan Dust July 2012 (SAL)

CIMSS Tropical Cyclones#

July 16 Blog on the Dust by CIMSS: Saharan dust moving westward across the Atlantic Ocean « CIMSS Satellite Blog

Mid July (Top Pic) and Current (Bottom pic)

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Old 07-31-2012, 07:51 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn,NY
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GGEM ensembles show a lot of interesting scenarios
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Old 08-01-2012, 09:15 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
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Now a "High Chance" (60%) this disturbance developing. Looks like we'll probably see Ernesto pretty soon. It's been over a month since we've had a tropical storm, I'm pretty surprised that there was nothing at all in July but four storms in May and June. Here is some info on Invest 99L.





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Old 08-01-2012, 09:41 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony22 View Post

GGEM ensembles show a lot of interesting scenarios
Ummm, Wow? LMAO. Usually GFS would show something like that. LOL
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Old 08-03-2012, 06:08 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Activity continues in Atlantic. 30% on the wave off Africa

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Old 08-03-2012, 02:24 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
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This is pretty strange but funny to me. In July, we have absolutely no activity at all, not even any disturbances. But as soon as August 1st arrives, we get a tropical depression, and now even more activity behind Ernesto. It's funny how it goes from very quiet to very active just like that, and just because it's August and the "active part of the season" has begun.
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Old 08-04-2012, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWNJ View Post
This is pretty strange but funny to me. In July, we have absolutely no activity at all, not even any disturbances. But as soon as August 1st arrives, we get a tropical depression, and now even more activity behind Ernesto. It's funny how it goes from very quiet to very active just like that, and just because it's August and the "active part of the season" has begun.
Amazing what shear and SAL does..

Current Satellite view shows the activity in the Atlantic. Ernesto has some nice outflow to it. (its breathing)

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Old 08-04-2012, 10:35 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Ernesto and Florence are following the typical August tracks. Ernesto stayed south of the islands so its going towards the Gulf. Florence wont stay south (plus it developed farther East) so it will follow one of the north paths.

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Old 08-04-2012, 06:44 PM
 
Location: Upstate, South Carolina
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yeah looks like Florence is doomed to waste away in the middle of the Atlantic. Ernesto still has a chance to do some damage but still a difficult path
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