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Old 08-01-2012, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,128 posts, read 57,488,832 times
Reputation: 13164

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Invest 99 is now TD#5 and will become Ernesto by tomorrow.

500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.


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Old 08-01-2012, 02:45 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,128 posts, read 57,488,832 times
Reputation: 13164
Noaa forecasted track.



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Old 08-01-2012, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,128 posts, read 57,488,832 times
Reputation: 13164
Model Projections. GFS keeps it south as well. Euro turns it north of the islands

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Old 08-02-2012, 07:08 AM
 
Location: Upstate, South Carolina
356 posts, read 608,147 times
Reputation: 154
It's amazing how many different models there are, so many different paths. Seems most likely it gets ripped apart by big islands.
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Old 08-02-2012, 06:56 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
556 posts, read 635,875 times
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The tropical wave behind Ernesto looks pretty menacing as well. Looks like the Cape Verde season and the train of waves off of Africa has begun.
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Old 08-03-2012, 06:10 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,128 posts, read 57,488,832 times
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Ernesto forecasted to become a hurricane in the Carribean.

800 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012

...WIND GUST TO 63 MPH IN SAINT LUCIA AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES
NEARBY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR FROM GUADELOUPE AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED OVER OR VERY NEAR SAINT LUCIA
DURING THE PAST HOUR. AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24
MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER
THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ST. LUCIA RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H...AND BARBADOS JUST
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH...68 KM/H.
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Old 08-03-2012, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Denver
603 posts, read 938,036 times
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I don't like the forecast track of this one at all.

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Old 08-03-2012, 08:10 PM
 
Location: Denver
14,601 posts, read 21,182,629 times
Reputation: 9578
Quote:
Originally Posted by tinalimey View Post
I don't like the forecast track of this one at all.
Same here, lets hope we don't have to have a hurricane party this season.
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Old 08-04-2012, 06:27 AM
 
Location: Auckland, NZ
715 posts, read 2,256,336 times
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Climatologically speaking, systems that have taken Ernesto's path almost always end up between Belize and Cancun. Not expecting anything much different here. ECMWF takes it closer to Belize.
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Old 08-04-2012, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
74,128 posts, read 57,488,832 times
Reputation: 13164
Most models take it into the Gulf.
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