TS Dorian Forms in Atlantic 7/24/13 (2013, days, storm, place)

[Cambium]

Assuming it will be a Tropical Storm later today I used the title for it. Still a depression for now but forecasted to overcome dry air around it and become a TS.

With the Strong and Large Bermuda High / Atlantic Ridge in place it has no where to go but south of it. So all models agree on a south track which means an East Coast risk. Models dont show this to be strong though. I'm thinking it will max out as a weak Cat 1 at best.

500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 28.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

[doggiebus]

Let's hope it fizzle out.

[Cambium]

Little earlier than thought... Cooler waters are ahead. This is NOT... or maybe I should say.. "should" not become a big storm. So even if it affects the East Coast its just going to be Tropical Rains and wind.

1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AS DORIAN MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

[Cambium]

[Cambium]

GFS max Wind Swath projection

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/360091719603216384

[Cambium]

GFS00z keeps Dorian well off the coast but interestingly it brings it "northwestward" into Nova Scotia as a 977mb low

[Sweetbottoms]

eh, call me in a week when we know something. Too early to worry about and even if it gets close , unless its a high cat 3 im not leaving... They're gonna ramp up the panic in about 3 days when they still know nothing

[Cambium]

No change in strength... I never liked this one for a threat to the East coast. Meaning the pattern is there but not enough to worry. We'll see.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 35.9W
ABOUT 1800 MI...2900 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[Spazkat9696]

Where's it headed?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Spazkat9696

Where's it headed?

It has weakened and tore apart. Wind shear and dry air tore it apart. I dont see any more threat with this one.
Heading west.

Tropical Storm DORIAN